The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic at Denver Nuggets – $11,000 DraftKings, $10,700 FanDuel
Doncic has the highest ceiling of any player on tonight’s slate, and while he’s gotten off to a sluggish start by his standards, the lofty ceiling is warranted.
He hit at least 70 fantasy points in six games over the final four months of the 2020-21 season, and his ability to take over a game with monstrous triple-doubles is unmatched in the Association.
The way he’s played recently, he could be a risky spend for Doncic in cash games, but if you’re looking for a GPP play with tremendous upside, Luka’s your man.
Top Value: Kyle Lowry vs. Charlotte Hornets – $7,100 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
To say Lowry has underperformed thus far into his Heat tenure would be an understatement, but he’s been dealing with injuries, and he’s still acclimating to the new team.
Lowry has still logged at least 31 minutes in each of his last two games, and he’s got the upside to put up 10 assists and three swipes on any given night.
Because of the huge price disparity, Lowry’s projected to have just a 9-12% ownership on DraftKings and 41% on FanDuel (96% Bargain Rating), making him a cash game play on FanDuel and a tournament option on DraftKings.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: C.J. McCollum vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $7,900 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel
McCollum has gotten off to a blistering start, posting career highs in all categories except assists: 26.8 points, 4.8 boards, 3.0 assists, 5.0 triples, 2.0 steals, and 1.5 blocks.
His incredible production has been much needed, as Damian Lillard has struggled in the early goings of the season. Portland/Los Angeles has the second-highest over/under on a low-scoring slate at 222.0, and McCollum is still reasonably priced, given his gaudy numbers.
Top Value: Bruce Brown vs. Indiana Pacers – $3,800 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
Brown’s ceiling isn’t lofty by any means, but he’s averaged 30.7 minutes over his last three games and started his last two. He’s not typically a high scorer, but he can grab boards at a high clip for a wing and chip in some strong defensive numbers as well.
Brown is a better value on DraftKings (as evidenced by his 88% Bargain Rating), but he’s a solid salary-saver on both sites.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jimmy Butler vs. Charlotte Hornets – $8,700 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
Jimmy Buckets has posted some elite numbers to start the season, averaging 23.3 points, 6.8 boards, 5.3 dimes, and an unbelievable 3.3 swipes. He’s hit at least 52 fantasy points on both sites in each of his last two games and will look to extend that streak in a friendly matchup against Charlotte.
The Heat (17th in pace) get a solid pace-up matchup with the Hornets (4th in pace) in a game that’s tied for the highest over/under on the slate at 223.0.
Top Value: Nicolas Batum at Portland Trail Blazers – $4,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Batum started his second straight game Wednesday and logged at least 30 minutes for the first time this season. He made the most of that opportunity with a solid 16/4/2/1 line across 32 minutes.
He figures to be in the starting lineup tonight, and our models project him for 31.5 minutes. If that playing time holds, Batum should be a strong value against a Portland team that ranks first in pace (105.5).
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant vs. Indiana Pacers – $10,300 DraftKings, $10,900 FanDuel
After back-to-back down games against the Heat and Wizards, KD’s price has decreased by $200 on DraftKings and $100 on FanDuel, yet he’s got an advantageous matchup with the Pacers.
The elite two-way forward gets a juicy matchup with a Pacers team that ranks 27th in defensive rating (112.5). Durant has averaged 30/10/5 this season, so take advantage of the price dip for a guy with a nearly-unrivaled ceiling.
Top Value: Aaron Gordon vs. Dallas Mavericks – $5,000 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Gordon’s usage has risen from 15.1% over his first two games to 26.0% over his last two, and he’s averaged 16 points, eight boards, one assist, and a combined block/steal in those contests.
If Nikola Jokic (knee) is limited or out, Gordon could have another strong night.
Center
Top Ceiling: Jonas Valanciunas vs. Sacramento Kings – $8,500 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
Valanciunas is a smash, and he’s my favorite play of the night. The big man has transitioned well to his new team, and he’s put up 58 points and 55 boards across his last three games.
If his recent production doesn’t get you excited, the matchup certainly should. Sacramento has been obliterated by opposing bigs, giving up 17/20 to Rudy Gobert, 20/14 to Jusuf Nurkic, and 21/21 to Deandre Ayton (who was mentioned as a value in Wednesday’s writeup).
Valanciunas has a solid Leverage Rating tonight, meaning our models project a huge return despite the anticipated projected ownership, depending on what site you’re playing on.
Don’t overthink this one.
Top Value: Mo Bamba at Toronto Raptors – $6,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
At the time of writing, Bamba has the highest Plus/Minus on both slates tonight, and he’s surpassed his projected point totals by at least 8.7 points in three of five contests.
On the season, the breakout center is averaging 13.6 points, 8.4 boards, and 2.6 combined blocks/steals with three double-doubles. He figures to be a fixture in this column until his price catches up with his upside.
