NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Top Ceiling: Trae Young vs. Golden State Warriors – $10,700 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel
A fixture in this section throughout the season, Trae Young once again finds his name here for Friday’s matchup with the Warriors. He posted a healthy 28/9/3/1 line in his only meeting with the Warriors this season, and he’ll look to keep up that strong play tonight.
At just $9,800, Young gets a 95% Bargain Rating on FanDuel to go with a strong Opponent Plus/Minus. Ice Trae has averaged 50.1 fantasy points across his last six behind averages of 31.5 points and 9.8 dimes.
Top Value: Patrick Beverley vs. Dallas Mavericks – $4,700 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
Beverley hounded Luka Doncic on Monday and finished with 30.4 fantasy points against Dallas in his last matchup. He’s posted at least 30 fantasy points in both matchups with the Mavericks this season.
PatBev has averaged 26.3 fantasy points on the season, but he’s put up at least 35 on six occasions and at least 40 three more times. It’s a pace-down spot and a poor Opponent Plus/Minus for Beverley, but his ability to stuff the stat sheet makes him matchup-proof, especially at his current salary.
Top Ceiling: James Harden at Los Angeles Clippers – $10,000 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
What do you get when you cross an elite point guard with a generous defense? If you answered James Harden, pat yourself on the back because you are correct!
Harden has averaged 46.8 fantasy points across his last six games, including two games with over 50 fantasy points in that span. Of all opponents he’s faced this season, Harden has had the most success against the Clippers, having averaged over 70 fantasy points in two prior meetings on 36.5 points, 14.0 assists, 10.0 rebounds, 3.5 triples and 1.5 steals.
Harden has a tremendous opportunity to blow past his salary with an enormous Opponent Plus/Minus and Pace Differential.
Top Value: Ben McLemore vs. Houston Rockets – $3,700 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
McLemore has scored at least 21 real-life points in two straight while averaging over 30 fantasy points in that span. He’ll get a crack at his former team tonight in what sets up as a very fantasy-friendly matchup.
Over his last four, McLemore has posted 26.3 fantasy points across 24.5 minutes, and he should continue to see plenty of meaningful run off the bench for the tanking Blazers.
The veteran gets a great Opponent Plus/Minus and Pace Differential as well as a 234.5 over/under, the highest on the slate.
Top Ceiling: RJ Barrett at Miami Heat – $8,400 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
Barrett has averaged 40.6 fantasy points since the All-Star break while posting 26.5 points, 6.4 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 2.1 triples per contest in 14 appearances. He’s topped 50 fantasy points thrice in that span, so the ceiling is definitely there.
Coming into this one, Barrett has scored at least 30 real-life points in two straight, and he’ll look to make it three against a Heat team that’s likely to be without many of its key players. It’s not often you can get a stud at such a low salary, so take advantage and get Barrett into your lineups!
Top Value: Corey Kispert at Detroit Pistons – $4,300 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
We’re going way down in price for this value play. Kispert has averaged 18.6 fantasy points in the month of March while playing 30 minutes a night. He gets a positive Opponent Plus/Minus and Pace Differential with a 234.5 over/under against the Pistons.
Kyle Kuzma is a GTD tonight, and there’s a chance Kristaps Porzingis sits out on the second game of Washington’s back-to-back set, meaning we could see more of Kispert in a favorable matchup. Detroit allows the third-highest opponent three-point percentage at 36.5, which should benefit the long-range specialist.
Top Ceiling: Bam Adebayo vs. New York Knicks – $8,000 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
The Heat figure to be without many regular starters and rotational players tonight, which sets up Adebayo to enjoy a massive spike in usage. He’s got huge upside, so his salary is already far too low. Tonight, he’s an even better value.
The matchup with New York offers a negative Opponent Plus/Minus, but we’re not concerned with that, as Adebayo has a 60-point ceiling on both sites. He’s our model’s top play at PF, and you can easily fit him into lineups at this ridiculously-low salary.
Note: Adebayo is eligible at PF/C on FanDuel and C on DraftKings.
Top Value: Obi Toppin at Miami Heat – $4,500 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
Julius Randle has missed the Knicks’ last two games due to a quad injury, and it’s unlikely the team rushes him back with New York essentially out of the playoff race.
That sets up Toppin to make a third straight start after going 18/11/6/1/1 in his last game out. Toppin has averaged 13.0 points, 7.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.6 stocks in four starts this season, and he could return major value at his price tag.
Top Ceiling: Joel Embiid at Los Angeles Clippers – $11,200 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel
I gave you a riddle for James Harden, and I’ll pose the same one for our top-ceiling center play. Yes, the answer is Joel Embiid. It’s a perfect marriage of exploitable defense and elite player.
Embiid went for 40/13/6 in his lone meeting with Los Angeles on Jan. 21, and he’s got the potential to put up a similar line and maybe more tonight. The Clippers have surrendered a ton of production to opposing centers this season, allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to the position. Over the last month, however, the Clippers have surrendered the fourth-most points to centers. If you’re going to pay up for just one player on this slate, make it Embiid.
Top Value: P.J. Washington vs. Utah Jazz – $4,900 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
Washington re-joined the Hornets’ starting lineup just before the All-Star break, and it’s paid off in a big way for fantasy purposes. The Kentucky product has averaged 28.9 fantasy points in his last 10 home games, and he’ll be playing in Charlotte tonight.
The matchup with Utah carries a favorable 230.5 over/under and a strong Opponent Plus/Minus. At just $4.9k, Washington is one of the best values on the slate with a very clear path to returning 6x value and beyond.