DraftKings’ main slate for Friday includes the first 10 games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Giddey vs. Washington Wizards – $10,800
The Bulls are still alive for the No.8 seed in the Eastern Conference, and Giddey is one of the best spends on the slate with his team still motivated. The guard truly has been one of the best players in the NBA recently. Giddey is coming off a 78.5 DraftKings point triple-double in Wednesday’s crucial win over the Heat, and he is scoring 57.9 DraftKings PPG since the All-Star break. During this timeframe, Giddey is handling a 25.2% usage rate and a 36.1% assist percentage, resulting in 1.6 DraftKings PPM.
Hosting the lowly Wizards, who rank 28th in defensive rating this season, the Bulls carry the highest implied team total on the slate (126.5 points). This is the largest implied team total Giddey has played behind this season, and the last time the Bulls presented an implied team total of at least 120 points, the guard posted a triple-double worth 60.25 DraftKings points vs. the Trail Blazers last week.
Top Value: A.J. Lawson at Dallas Mavericks – $4,400
Lawson is fresh off a strong performance of 35 DraftKings points in 27 minutes vs. the Hornets on Wednesday. The Raptors had RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley available for this game, but both players will be out tonight, joining Jakob Poeltl (rest) and Gradey Dick (knee) on the sidelines. Scottie Barnes will play, but he only played 20 minutes in the Raptors’ last game and shouldn’t see much work again tonight as Toronto continues to tank to finish the season.
All in all, Lawson should see close to 30 minutes in a plus spot against the Mavericks, who rank 24th in defensive rating since the All-Star break. Lawson is scoring 1.1 DraftKings PPM with a 21.8% usage rate with Barrett, Quickley, Poeltl and Dick off the floor since the All-Star break, and Lawson could top 30 DraftKings points for the second game in a row.
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards vs. Brooklyn Nets – $9,700
Players who are on teams that are still motivated are the best options to pay up for tonight, and Edwards is one of those options, with the Timberwolves still looking to improve their seed. Minnesota is currently eighth in the Western Conference, but the standings are so tight that they still could finish as high as the No. 4 seed. With a ton on the line last night vs. the Grizzlies, Edwards was in playoff mode, posting 59.75 DraftKings points across 37.5 minutes in the pivotal win for the Timberwolves.
Edwards is generating 52.1 DraftKings PPG in his last five games, and the Nets have been playing at a much faster pace as of late, ranking eighth in pace over their last 10 games. Minnesota is a huge 19.5-point favorite over Brooklyn, but Edwards still has the upside for 50+ DraftKings points.
Top Value: Lester Quinones vs. Miami Heat – $3,100
With the Pelicans depleted last night vs. the Bucks, Quinones saw his largest role of the season and took full advantage. The 24-year-old led the team with 37.25 DraftKings points across 31 minutes and saw a 35.1% usage rate, which was also a team-high for New Orleans. The Pelicans were without Jose Alvarado, Bruce Brown and Jordan Hawkins for this game, and if all three players remain sidelined on Friday, Quinones will be a great punt at this near minimum salary.
The guard is scoring 0.9 DraftKings PPM this season, and with Quinones currently on a two-way contract, proving he can produce at the NBA level is crucial in these final few games of the regular season.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Michael Porter Jr. vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $7,200
The Nuggets can’t afford to lose either of their final two games of the regular season if they want to avoid the Play-In Tournament, and Porter Jr. should continue to see an expanded role with Jamal Murray (hamstring) doubtful. This is also an appealing matchup, as the Grizzlies lead the league in pace and are playing their second game in two nights.
This game’s total is the highest on the slate (242.5 points), and Denver’s implied team total is the third-largest on the board (124.75 points). Porter Jr. is supplying 36.6 DraftKings PPG with Murray inactive this season (13 games), and this salary is just too low for Porter Jr. in tonight’s situation.
Top Value: De’Andre Hunter at New York Knicks – $4,500
With the Cavaliers sitting Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Max Strus last night, Hunter got the spot start and seized the opportunity, scoring 47.25 DraftKings points in 31.4 minutes vs. the Pacers. In this contest, Hunter ranked second on the team with a large 31% usage rate. Cleveland is locked into the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, and the Thunder clinched the No. 1 record in the NBA on Wednesday, so the Cavaliers have nothing at stake for their final two games.
While they have yet to release their injury report, Cleveland could be without many starters again. Even if they are active, those players aren’t going to see large workloads. Hunter should once again see increased playing time and usage, making him a terrific target at his low salary. In his last five games with at least 25 minutes, Hunter has averaged 33.1 DraftKings PPG.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Hart vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $7,300
Hart (knee) sat out last night’s game, but the durable and reliable veteran should be back in the lineup tonight, especially with the Knicks looking to clinch the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference. New York needs one more win to reach that feat, and they are a 7.5-point favorite over the Cavaliers.
While Hart feels likely to play, the Knicks’ starters who played last night in Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Mikal Bridges could be rested tonight, which would open extra usage for Hart. Nonetheless, the forward should see his usual heavy playing time and outproduce this salary. Hart is averaging 38.3 DraftKings PPG in two matchups with Cleveland this season, and he has eclipsed 40 DraftKings points in five of his last 10.
Top Value: Jonathan Mogbo at Dallas Mavericks – $5,500
Mogbo has been flourishing as a starter for the tanking Raptors. In his last two games, Mogbo has scored 50.75 DraftKings points vs. the Nets and 55 DraftKings points vs. the Hornets. The 23-year-old notched a triple-double in the latter game, and he was three assists shy of a triple-double in the former. Mogbo has led the team with 34 minutes per game during this stretch, and all of his rates have been strong, most notably his 35.3% assist percentage.
The Raptors also waived Orlando Robinson yesterday, who started at center and logged 34 minutes in their last game, which should solidify Mogbo’s place in the rotation. He is a difficult fade at only $5,500.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $13,000
As mentioned above, the Nuggets can’t afford another loss if they want to avoid the Play-In Tournament. Given this and that are a plethora of elite punt plays available, building around Jokic needs to be a priority tonight. The three-time MVP is producing a whopping 73.8 DraftKings PPG with Murray inactive this season (12 games) with a 35.1% usage rate in those contests. That represents a +5.5 percentage point lift from his season average.
Jokic should dominate against the fast-paced Grizzlies and likely lead this slate in scoring by a comfortable margin. In our ShotQuality projections, Jokic has the highest ceiling on the slate by nearly 20 DraftKings points.
Top Value: Goga Bitadze at Indiana Pacers – $3,400
With the Magic locked into the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference, they will sit Paolo Banchero (ankle), Franz Wagner (knee), Wendell Carter Jr. (hip) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (knee) tonight. Bitadze should start at center in this situation. While Orlando has yet to play any games without all four players this season, Bitadze has made 12 starts in place of Carter Jr. and is averaging 26.3 DraftKings PPG on those occasions.
Bitadze has averaged 1.1 DraftKings PPM this season is a very capable big man, scoring over 40 DraftKings points seven times this season. At $3,400, Bitadze is laughably underpriced for his expected role tonight and is an elite punt for all formats.
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Pictured: Nikola Jokic
Photo Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
