The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic at Washington Wizards – $12,100 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
Who else but Luka? The superstar has posted five straight double-doubles, but he’s been especially lethal across his last two contests, averaging 34.5 points, 12.5 assists, 10.5 rebounds, 3.5 triples and 2.0 stocks in those contests.
Dallas has shot all the way up to the No. 3 seed in the West and clinched a playoff berth as Luka makes a case to be included in the MVP conversation. Tonight’s matchup with the Wiz offers a strong Opponent Plus/Minus, and Luka went for 33 points, 10 assists and four rebounds the last time these two teams met. Fire him up with confidence.
Top Value: Bones Hyland vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $4,800 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Will Hyland make his bones against the Wolves tonight? If he carries momentum over from his last game, he sure will. Hyland posted 20/4/7/1/1 in his last game for one of his best performances of the season.
Over his last 11 games, he’s averaged 15.5 points, 4.4 dimes, 3.3 rebounds, 2.7 triples and 1.1 stocks, good for 27.7 fantasy points in 23.5 minutes. Tonight’s matchup has the highest over/under on the slate with a whopping 237, and the Nuggets are just 3.5-point favorites.
This should be a tight, high-scoring game, and Hyland has been a strong per-minute contributor five games of at least 30 fantasy points in that span and topped 40 in his last game
Top Ceiling: Dejounte Murray vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $11,400 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
Much like Luka, Murray has been a featured stud too many times to count this season. He gets an excellent matchup with the Blazers, and he went for 28/6/7/1 the last time these teams met just over a week ago.
Murray is closing his breakout season on a high note, and he averaged 25.6 points, 8.8 rebounds, 8.6 assists, 2.1 steals and 2.0 triples in the month of March. The Spurs’ matchup with Portland offers a strong Opponent Plus/Minus and 231.5 over/under. San Antonio is favored by 15, so there’s certainly a blowout risk, but there’s no player at this position with a higher ceiling.
Note: Murray is eligible at PG on DraftKings and PG/SG on FanDuel
Top Value: D’Angelo Russell at Denver Nuggets – $6,400 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
Right up front, I’m going to tell you to avoid D’Lo in cash games. His play has been so poor recently that his salary has dipped way down to these ludicrous prices. I’ll avoid him on DraftKings, but he’s a 95% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, which is where I’ll target him heavily.
Russell has shot just 34.1% over his last 11 games, but he’s got a ceiling of over 50 fantasy points on both sites. Tonight’s 237 over/under is the best on the slate, and he averaged 32 fantasy points in two prior matchups with Denver this season. This is a classic case of cold streak meets exploitable pricing, and if Russell breaks out of his slump, you’ve got major value on your hands.
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $11,700 DraftKings, $11,800 FanDuel
Giannis has been incredible across his last two games, posting at least 40 points, 14 rebounds, six assists and a steal in each contest while delivering wins over Philly and Brooklyn.
He posted at least 74 fantasy points in each game, and the Clippers are a friendly matchup that offers a great Opponent Plus/Minus and a healthy 231.5 over/under. Milwaukee has a chance to take the East’s No. 1 seed, so there’s no reason to think the Bucks will throttle down in any way tonight.
Top Value: KJ Martin vs. Sacramento Kings – $4,400 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
Martin has seen his playing time increase recently, and he’s averaged 24.5 minutes across his last four contests while posting 21.4 fantasy points in that span. With Christian Wood out for the season and Alperen Sengun dealing with a leg injury, there’s reason to believe Martin will continue seeing minutes in the mid-20’s.
The matchup with Sacramento gives Martin a strong Opponent Plus/Minus of 231.5, and there’s a measly two-point spread. Wednesday’s matchup ended with a Sacramento 121-118 win as Martin’s game-tying three rattled out at the buzzer.
Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam at Orlando Magic – $9,700 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
Spicy P continues to excel, and his last two games were especially productive. He put up a season-high 40 points two games ago and a career-high 13 assists in his last game out.
Siakam went for 34/14/2 in his only meeting with the Magic this season, and with news that Wendell Carter Jr. will sit out, Siakam’s appeal is through the roof. His 40-point outing came against another shorthanded frontcourt in Boston, so ride the hot hand and the great matchup.
Top Value: Usman Garuba vs. Sacramento Kings – $3,600 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
Houston’s tank has hit its stride, as Christian Wood is out for the season. Alperen Sengun is dealing with a leg injury, and there’s no way the Rockets rush him back. That leaves our value play at PF, Mr. Garuba.
Garuba posted a modest eight points and seven boards in 22 minutes Thursday against the Kings, but he should remain in the starting lineup for a favorable rematch. Bruno Fernando played 25 minutes and went for 17/10, but he’s a bit more expensive on FanDuel ($4,700) compared to DraftKings ($3,600). Both are in play tonight.
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – $12,500 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel
I feel like I’ve typed this sentence 50 times this season, but here it is again: Nikola Jokic is on a roll. He’s put up a ridiculous 32.7 points, 14.7 rebounds, 9.3 assists, 3.0 stocks and at least 67 fantasy points in three straight. The most impressive part is that we’ve become accustomed to this level of play.
The Joker has averaged 24.7 points, 15.0 rebounds, 8.7 assists, 2.0 triples and 1.7 stocks in three prior matchups with the Timberwolves, so no one will be shocked if he goes off against Minnesota again tonight. The 237 over/under is the highest on the slate, and Jokic averages 2.3 more fantasy points at home vs. on the road. As always, he and Giannis have the highest ceilings of any players on the slate.
Top Value: Kelly Olynyk at Oklahoma City Thunder – $3,700 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
Talk about a value! Kelly O has a chance to log some big minutes tonight after Marvin Bagley suffered a hip injury Thursday. Olynyk went for 12/5/3/1/2 in 20 minutes against the 76ers last night, and he’s now posted at least 25 fantasy points in two straight.
Olynyk gets the biggest Opponent Plus/Minus on the slate thanks to an excellent matchup with the Thunder’s decimated roster, and his price is less than $1,000 more than the minimum on each site. Even if he doesn’t draw the start against OKC tonight, he should see minutes in the mid-to-high 20’s. Easy play.