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NBA DFS Breakdown (Wednesday, Mar. 16): LeBron James Headlines Star-Studded Slate

Wednesday features a 12-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

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Point Guard

Stud

Dejounte Murray continues to provide some of the most consistent value in fantasy basketball. He’s been the Spurs’ top option all season, but he’s taken his game to another level following the Derrick White trade. He’s increased his production to 1.56 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games.

Murray is in a great spot for success Wednesday vs. the Thunder. They rank dead last in defensive efficiency over their past 10 games, allowing a whopping 122.7 points per 100 possessions. The Spurs are currently implied for 122.0 points, which is the fourth-highest mark on the slate.

Value

Davion Mitchell has struggled recently, averaging just 0.67 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That said, he’s averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute for the year, so there’s reason to believe he can improve moving forward.

Despite his mediocre per-minute production, Mitchell has still racked up at least 20.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. You’ll definitely take that kind of production at just $3,300.

Fast Break

Mike Conley hasn’t had a great season by his standards, but he has scored at least 30.75 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. That includes a massive 48.5 DraftKings points in his last outing. He remains very fairly priced at $5,500 on DraftKings in a solid matchup vs. the Bulls.

LaMelo Ball has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games on FanDuel, and his $8,100 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%. He also leads the position with 12 Pro Trends in what should be a fantasy-friendly game vs. the Hawks. The total currently sits at 241.0 points, and the Hornets are slim one-point home favorites.

Shooting Guard

Stud

The Suns continue to win games despite the absence of Chris Paul, and they should cruise to another victory on Wednesday. They’re 11-point favorites in a juicy matchup vs. the Rockets, and their implied team total of 123.25 ranks third on the slate.

Devin Booker has been carrying the load from a fantasy perspective. He’s always been a gifted scorer, but he’s taken on more responsibilities as a distributor with Paul sidelined. He’s increased his assist rate by +9.6% in seven games without Paul, resulting in an average of 49.68 DraftKings points per game. There’s some blowout potential here, but Booker has massive upside if this game is more competitive than expected.

Value

Tre Mann has played some of his best basketball of late. The first-round pick out of Florida has increased his production to 0.85 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 28.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. That alone would be enough to put him on the radar at $5,200 vs. the Spurs.

However, Mann also has the potential for a massive usage bump on Wednesday. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is currently questionable, and given the Thunder’s dismal record, it would not be surprising to see him sit. Josh Giddey and Lu Dort are already sidelined, so the team would be without their top three playmakers if SGA is inactive. Mann has seen the largest usage bump on the squad with all three players off the floor this season, so he figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries.

Fast Break

Justin Holiday isn’t a particularly exciting DFS option, but he has a pretty solid floor for his price tag. He’s priced at just $3,400 on DraftKings and is projected for 27 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.58 (per the Trends tool).

D’Angelo Russell has one of the best individual matchups at the position, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.2 on FanDuel. He’s also underpriced on FanDuel, where his $7,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%. The Timberwolves have the potential for a massive offensive outburst vs. the Lakers, and they lead the slate with an implied team total of 125.5.

Small Forward

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo has failed to return value in each of his past two games, but those were on the road against tough Western Conference foes in the Jazz and Warriors. Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Kings should be much friendlier. The Kings rank just 28th in defensive efficiency this season, and the Bucks’ implied team total of 125.0 ranks second on the slate. Giannis has significant upside in this matchup, and his salary has also decreased by -$500 on DraftKings.

Value

The Knicks have not been a team worth considering very often this season, but they have some appeal vs. the Blazers. They’re just 29th in defensive efficiency over their past 10 games, and the Knicks’ 117.25-point implied team total represents a significant increase from their season average.

The Knicks are also playing without a few of their backcourt options at the moment, leaving Evan Fournier to handle plenty of minutes. He racked up 33.7 minutes in their last outing and responded with 38.0 DraftKings points. He has similar upside on Wednesday at a very reasonable salary.

Fast Break

R.J. Barrett is another option for the Knicks. He’s made a leap in his third season, averaging 1.08 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He also routinely commands one of the largest workloads in basketball, and he’s projected for 38 minutes in our NBA Models.

Will Barton is priced at just $4,900 on FanDuel, which is an absolute steal. He hasn’t played all that well of late, but he’s still posted a positive Plus/Minus in back-to-back games. He’s averaged 0.89 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s projected for 32 minutes Wednesday vs. the Wizards.

Power Forward

Stud

You have to feel bad for LeBron James at this point. He’s doing everything possible to try to push the Lakers into the playoffs but it’s just not working. He’s taken on a monster workload of late, and he racked up more than 40 minutes in his last outing. LeBron has averaged 1.54 DraftKings points per minute in games without Anthony Davis this season, so he can do plenty of damage with that much playing time.

The Lakers are sizable underdogs Wednesday vs. the red-hot Timberwolves, but this contest should feature plenty of scoring. Both of these teams rank in the top five in pace over the past 10 games – the Timberwolves are first in that department – and the total sits at a slate-high 241.5 points.

Value

Danilo Gallinari has been playing more minutes for the Hawks recently, and he’s taken full advantage. He’s scored at least 26.5 DraftKings points in each of his past three games, and he’s averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models, so he’s a good bet to return value once again vs. the Hornets.

Fast Break

Rui Hachimura is playing limited minutes for the Wizards, which keeps his ceiling relatively low. However, he’s a great bet to return value at just $3,400. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games, and his current salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.

Darius Bazley is another member of the Thunder who would be asked to pick up the slack if Gilgeous-Alexander is ruled out. He’s been playing well with SGA in the lineup recently, scoring at least 26.5 FanDuel points in four of his past five games.

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Center

Stud

There are a ton of strong options at center on Wednesday, including the two leading MVP candidates in Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid. Both players clearly have upside – they’ve put together some of the biggest fantasy performances of the year – but they are expensive.

Kristaps Porzingis stands out as a better pure value at just $7,200. The oft-injured big man has scored 40.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and he played just under 27.5 minutes in his last outing. Overall, Porzingis has averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute since joining the Wizards’ rotation, and he could see another small bump in playing time vs. the Nuggets.

Value

Onyeka Okongwu has been playing around 20 minutes per game with John Collins sidelined recently, but he remains very affordable at just $3,900. Okongwu has also increased his production to 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games. He’s in a great spot for another strong outing vs. the Hornets, who rank 29th in team rebound rate this season.

Fast Break

If you want to pay up for one of the truly elite centers, using Jokic on FanDuel is not a bad idea. His $11,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%, and the Wizards are a matchup he can dominate. They rank just 28th in defensive efficiency over their past 10 games.

Precious Achiuwa is coming off more than 33 minutes in his last game, and he responded with 35.75 DraftKings points. He’s not expected to see quite as much playing time on Wednesday, but he’s still projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models. Achiuwa has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, making him very appealing at just $3,900.

Wednesday features a 12-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Start Your PRO Trial Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Point Guard

Stud

Dejounte Murray continues to provide some of the most consistent value in fantasy basketball. He’s been the Spurs’ top option all season, but he’s taken his game to another level following the Derrick White trade. He’s increased his production to 1.56 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games.

Murray is in a great spot for success Wednesday vs. the Thunder. They rank dead last in defensive efficiency over their past 10 games, allowing a whopping 122.7 points per 100 possessions. The Spurs are currently implied for 122.0 points, which is the fourth-highest mark on the slate.

Value

Davion Mitchell has struggled recently, averaging just 0.67 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That said, he’s averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute for the year, so there’s reason to believe he can improve moving forward.

Despite his mediocre per-minute production, Mitchell has still racked up at least 20.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. You’ll definitely take that kind of production at just $3,300.

Fast Break

Mike Conley hasn’t had a great season by his standards, but he has scored at least 30.75 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. That includes a massive 48.5 DraftKings points in his last outing. He remains very fairly priced at $5,500 on DraftKings in a solid matchup vs. the Bulls.

LaMelo Ball has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games on FanDuel, and his $8,100 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%. He also leads the position with 12 Pro Trends in what should be a fantasy-friendly game vs. the Hawks. The total currently sits at 241.0 points, and the Hornets are slim one-point home favorites.

Shooting Guard

Stud

The Suns continue to win games despite the absence of Chris Paul, and they should cruise to another victory on Wednesday. They’re 11-point favorites in a juicy matchup vs. the Rockets, and their implied team total of 123.25 ranks third on the slate.

Devin Booker has been carrying the load from a fantasy perspective. He’s always been a gifted scorer, but he’s taken on more responsibilities as a distributor with Paul sidelined. He’s increased his assist rate by +9.6% in seven games without Paul, resulting in an average of 49.68 DraftKings points per game. There’s some blowout potential here, but Booker has massive upside if this game is more competitive than expected.

Value

Tre Mann has played some of his best basketball of late. The first-round pick out of Florida has increased his production to 0.85 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 28.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. That alone would be enough to put him on the radar at $5,200 vs. the Spurs.

However, Mann also has the potential for a massive usage bump on Wednesday. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is currently questionable, and given the Thunder’s dismal record, it would not be surprising to see him sit. Josh Giddey and Lu Dort are already sidelined, so the team would be without their top three playmakers if SGA is inactive. Mann has seen the largest usage bump on the squad with all three players off the floor this season, so he figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries.

Fast Break

Justin Holiday isn’t a particularly exciting DFS option, but he has a pretty solid floor for his price tag. He’s priced at just $3,400 on DraftKings and is projected for 27 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.58 (per the Trends tool).

D’Angelo Russell has one of the best individual matchups at the position, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.2 on FanDuel. He’s also underpriced on FanDuel, where his $7,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%. The Timberwolves have the potential for a massive offensive outburst vs. the Lakers, and they lead the slate with an implied team total of 125.5.

Small Forward

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo has failed to return value in each of his past two games, but those were on the road against tough Western Conference foes in the Jazz and Warriors. Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Kings should be much friendlier. The Kings rank just 28th in defensive efficiency this season, and the Bucks’ implied team total of 125.0 ranks second on the slate. Giannis has significant upside in this matchup, and his salary has also decreased by -$500 on DraftKings.

Value

The Knicks have not been a team worth considering very often this season, but they have some appeal vs. the Blazers. They’re just 29th in defensive efficiency over their past 10 games, and the Knicks’ 117.25-point implied team total represents a significant increase from their season average.

The Knicks are also playing without a few of their backcourt options at the moment, leaving Evan Fournier to handle plenty of minutes. He racked up 33.7 minutes in their last outing and responded with 38.0 DraftKings points. He has similar upside on Wednesday at a very reasonable salary.

Fast Break

R.J. Barrett is another option for the Knicks. He’s made a leap in his third season, averaging 1.08 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He also routinely commands one of the largest workloads in basketball, and he’s projected for 38 minutes in our NBA Models.

Will Barton is priced at just $4,900 on FanDuel, which is an absolute steal. He hasn’t played all that well of late, but he’s still posted a positive Plus/Minus in back-to-back games. He’s averaged 0.89 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s projected for 32 minutes Wednesday vs. the Wizards.

Power Forward

Stud

You have to feel bad for LeBron James at this point. He’s doing everything possible to try to push the Lakers into the playoffs but it’s just not working. He’s taken on a monster workload of late, and he racked up more than 40 minutes in his last outing. LeBron has averaged 1.54 DraftKings points per minute in games without Anthony Davis this season, so he can do plenty of damage with that much playing time.

The Lakers are sizable underdogs Wednesday vs. the red-hot Timberwolves, but this contest should feature plenty of scoring. Both of these teams rank in the top five in pace over the past 10 games – the Timberwolves are first in that department – and the total sits at a slate-high 241.5 points.

Value

Danilo Gallinari has been playing more minutes for the Hawks recently, and he’s taken full advantage. He’s scored at least 26.5 DraftKings points in each of his past three games, and he’s averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models, so he’s a good bet to return value once again vs. the Hornets.

Fast Break

Rui Hachimura is playing limited minutes for the Wizards, which keeps his ceiling relatively low. However, he’s a great bet to return value at just $3,400. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games, and his current salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.

Darius Bazley is another member of the Thunder who would be asked to pick up the slack if Gilgeous-Alexander is ruled out. He’s been playing well with SGA in the lineup recently, scoring at least 26.5 FanDuel points in four of his past five games.

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Center

Stud

There are a ton of strong options at center on Wednesday, including the two leading MVP candidates in Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid. Both players clearly have upside – they’ve put together some of the biggest fantasy performances of the year – but they are expensive.

Kristaps Porzingis stands out as a better pure value at just $7,200. The oft-injured big man has scored 40.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and he played just under 27.5 minutes in his last outing. Overall, Porzingis has averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute since joining the Wizards’ rotation, and he could see another small bump in playing time vs. the Nuggets.

Value

Onyeka Okongwu has been playing around 20 minutes per game with John Collins sidelined recently, but he remains very affordable at just $3,900. Okongwu has also increased his production to 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games. He’s in a great spot for another strong outing vs. the Hornets, who rank 29th in team rebound rate this season.

Fast Break

If you want to pay up for one of the truly elite centers, using Jokic on FanDuel is not a bad idea. His $11,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%, and the Wizards are a matchup he can dominate. They rank just 28th in defensive efficiency over their past 10 games.

Precious Achiuwa is coming off more than 33 minutes in his last game, and he responded with 35.75 DraftKings points. He’s not expected to see quite as much playing time on Wednesday, but he’s still projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models. Achiuwa has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, making him very appealing at just $3,900.