The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a 10-game slate, starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
There are plenty of expensive options to consider on the slate, but Damian Lillard is near the top of the list. He’s scored at least 52.1 FanDuel points in back-to-back games, and he should continue to carry a larger workload than usual with C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic out of the lineup. The Blazers also relied on just eight players Tuesday against the Thunder, so Lillard should also see plenty of minutes.
He’s in an elite spot against the Pelicans. They’ve struggled defensively – they rank tied for 28th in defensive efficiency – and Lillard owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.29 on FanDuel. This game also figures to be one of the best of the day from a fantasy perspective, leading the slate with a total of 236.5 points. Lillard is simply too cheap at $9,500 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 85 percent.
Value
Facu Campazzo earned a spot start Tuesday for the Nuggets, who are dealing with a bunch of absences at the moment. They were missing Will Barton, Monte Morris, Gary Harris, and P.J. Dozier, and there’s a chance that all four players will be out of the lineup again.
If Campazzo earns another start, he’s going to be tough to fade against the lowly Wizards. They’ve been one of the best possible matchups in fantasy this season, and Campazzo racked up 37.75 DraftKings points in a much tougher matchup Tuesday vs. the Celtics.
Make sure to monitor the Nuggets’ injury situation using the Labs Insiders tool.
Fast Break
Sticking with the Nuggets, Jamal Murray is another member of the squad who should benefit from their current roster situation. He’s increased his usage rate by +5.5% with all four players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.00 FanDuel points per minute. He’s another excellent value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 82 percent.
John Wall stands out as an elite target on DraftKings, where his $7,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. He racked up 52.75 DraftKings points and a 39.3% usage rate in his last contest, and he should dominate the ball again against the 76ers. Christian Wood remains out, and Victor Oladipo and Eric Gordon are doubtful.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Jaylen Brown has put together the best season of his career in 2020-21, and he’s scored at least 38.0 DraftKings points in four consecutive games. He’ll have the opportunity for another big game against the Hawks. This is the second leg of a back-to-back set for the Celtics, which means Kemba Walker will likely get the night off. Brown has increased his production to 1.23 DraftKings points per minute with Walker and Smart off the court this season, and the Hawks are below-average defensively.
Value
David Nwaba moved into the starting lineup in the Rockets’ last game, and he should draw another start if Oladipo and Gordon are unable to suit up. He led the team with nearly 41 minutes in that contest, and he racked up 40.75 DraftKings. I wouldn’t expect that many fantasy points against the 76ers, but that kind of playing time potential is impossible to ignore at $4,300.
Fast Break
Seth Curry is priced at just $4,000 on FanDuel, but he’s projected for 33.3 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.61 (per the Trends tool). Curry has personally fit this trend five times since the start of last season, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.51 in that situation.
Josh Jackson has been a nice source of value recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in seven of his past eight games, and he remains reasonably priced at $5,700. He’s averaged a strong 1.00 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s currently projected for 29.5 minutes in our NBA Models. Jackson is also in a solid spot against the Bulls, who rank tied for 19th in defensive efficiency.
Small Forward
Stud
Jimmy Butler has been insanely good since returning from the league’s health and safety protocols nine games ago. He’s scored at least 44.5 DraftKings points in all but one of those contests, including at least 56.0 DraftKings points in three of his past four. Overall, he’s increased his production to 1.44 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which puts him on par with some of the best fantasy producers in the game.
He’s in an excellent spot against the Warriors. Golden State has actually been solid defensively, but they’ve played at the second-fastest pace. The Heat are well below-average in that department, so this is a massive pace-up spot.
Value
The Blazers simply don’t have a ton of bodies at the forward position at the moment. Derrick Jones Jr., Robert Covington, and Carmelo Anthony handled most of the forward minutes in Tuesday’s game, and all three are viable options.
That said, Jones looks like the best pure value. He finished with 25.75 DraftKings points over 30.5 minutes Tuesday, and he’s very affordable at $4,000 on DraftKings and $4,200 on FanDuel. He’s a cheap way to grab some exposure to the best game on the slate.
Fast Break
The Pelicans lead the slate with an implied team total of 119.75, which makes Brandon Ingram an interesting option at $8,200 FanDuel. His 10 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position, and he derives the majority of his fantasy value from scoring. Targeting him in a potentially high-scoring affair makes a lot of sense.
Michael Carter-Williams has SF eligibility on DraftKings, which increases his appeal against the Knicks. Carter-Willams has posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in both games since returning to the lineup, and he’s averaged 1.07 DKFP per minute. The Knicks are one of the worst matchups in fantasy, but Carter-Williams is simply underpriced for the role that he’s playing for the Magic at the moment.
Power Forward
Stud
Domantas Sabonis has gotten a bit pricier across the industry, but it’s hard to argue against his recent results. He’s scored at least 51.5 FanDuel points in two of his past three games, and he should be able to do some more damage tonight vs. the Timberwolves. They’ve been better defensively with Karl-Anthony Towns back in the lineup, but they still rank just 22nd in defensive efficiency this season. They also rank sixth in pace, giving the Pacers a significantly higher implied team total than usual (115.5 points). Sabonis owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.18 on FanDuel, and his salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 69 percent.
Value
Isaiah Roby was excellent against the Blazers, finishing with 29.5 DraftKings points over 23.6 minutes, and he could see a larger workload. Al Horford has sat on one leg of most back-to-backs this season, and Roby will likely move into the starting lineup if Horford rests vs. the Grizzlies. He’s averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he has the ability to do some damage with extra playing time.
Fast Break
JaMychal Green was a major bust last night for the Nuggets, but I’m going right back to the well today. He played 28.3 minutes Tuesday, but his fantasy numbers were impacted by shooting just 1 of 7 from the field. He’s averaged 0.91 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he should see better production moving forward. Green remains underpriced at $4,200 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 80 percent.
The Clippers have the potential to be extremely thin. Paul George and Nicolas Batum have already been ruled out, and Kawhi Leonard is listed as questionable. Serge Ibaka has seen one of the largest boosts in value on the team with all three players off the court, so he would be one of the biggest beneficiaries if Leonard is unable to suit up.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic is having an MVP-caliber season for the Nuggets, and he’s coming off back-to-back huge games. He finished with 64.0 DraftKings points against the Celtics, and he did it in a bit different manner than usual. He dominated as a scorer – he racked up 43 points – but his assists and rebounds were down. Jokic should carry another expanded usage rate against the Wizards, and his ceiling is astronomical if he can add some production in the peripheral categories.
Value
Kelly Olynyk had been providing excellent value recently, but his production fell off a cliff in his last outing. He finished with just 5.5 DraftKings points over 14.4 minutes after scoring at least 22.75 DraftKings points in his previous eight games. However, his role hasn’t fundamentally changed – he’s currently projected for 29.0 minutes in our NBA Models – so this seems like a nice time to buy low on him. He should return to his usual 30 minutes against the Warriors, so expect the fantasy production to return as well.
Fast Break
Karl-Anthony Towns is in a decent spot against the Pacers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.73 on FanDuel. He’s about as cheap as he’ll ever be across the industry, so he’s a nice contrarian option for tournaments.
Joel Embiid was a late scratch in the 76ers’ last game, but he’s probable against the Rockets. He’s been arguably the most dominant player in fantasy recently, averaging a stout 1.62 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He should be able to have his way vs. the Rockets, who have struggled against opposing centers this season.
