The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a five-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
There isn’t a single $7,000 point guard tonight at FanDuel, so Kemba Walker is Thursday’s stud at a meager $6,700. Walker is in a great spot against a stout Milwaukee defense that’s surprisingly lenient to point guards, offering an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.27 at the position, along with a +5.3 pace differential.
Kemba looks like a great buy at FanDuel with a 95% Bargain Rating and a +5.26 Projected Plus/Minus, and I actually think that number underrates him. Both Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are questionable, so if either or both sit out, Kemba’s workload will only grow larger.
Our model likes Lonzo Ball a bit better for now at $6,500, a 99% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. Jrue Holiday is out and J.J. Redick is questionable, so that means much heavier usage for Ball. He has exceeded expectations in eight straight games with an impressive +16.7 per game, a nightly triple-double threat. He’s rated at +7.24 Projected Plus/Minus tonight and looks like a killer play again.
Chris Schwegler/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Lonzo Ball (2) of the New Orleans Pelicans.
Value
Elfrid Payton is a nice bargain play at over +3.2 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites. Like the guys above him, Elf will benefit from a litany of injuries in New York that should give him plenty of opportunity, even in a negative matchup. We’re currently projecting Payton at 19.4% usage, below his season average, and I think that may actually be underrating his upside.
Fast Break
Monte Morris will be an obvious bargain play in a lot of lineups tonight with Jamal Murray out and in a great spot against the Warriors. We project Morris to play 26.7 minutes, but don’t get too excited just yet. Morris doesn’t score much and barely rebounds, so the presumed ceiling is lower than you think. He’s an excellent bargain in cash games, but lacks the upside to win a tournament.
Eric Bledsoe is a nice moderate option, even in a defensive battle against the Celtics. Bledsoe is averaging +5.18 over his last 10 games and has a +5.11 at FanDuel, right in line with his play of late.
Shooting Guard
Studs
Can I interest you in Devin Booker’s only game this season at Madison Square Garden? That feels like all sorts of scoring upside, but the Knicks have been mostly a neutral matchup for twos, and our model likes other Suns more tonight. Booker has an 85% Bargain Rating at FanDuel, so he’s an okay play there, but he has a negative Projected Plus/Minus at DraftKings. There appear to be better options tonight.
Value
One much better option is Donovan Mitchell, whose FanDuel price is so low I had to check three places to make sure I wasn’t reading it wrong. Spida is playing for just $6,600 tonight after underachieving in five of his last six games. But that salary has a short memory and doesn’t remember just how how Mitchell was in the early games without Mike Conley.
Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images. Pictured: Donovan Mitchell (45) of the Utah Jazz.
This is a beautiful matchup against the Pelicans, a +2.19 Opponent Plus/Minus and +4.3 pace differential, and one that only gets better with Holiday out. Mitchell is a literal slam dunk tonight, his +6.79 Projected Plus/Minus at DraftKings the best at the position and his +12.05 at FanDuel making him one of the top upside value plays in a long time.
Fast Break
Josh Hart will have his hands full with Mitchell. He’s expected to play 33.2 minutes with Holiday and possibly Redick out, and at barely above $4,000, that makes him a value play even in a very difficult matchup. Hart has exceeded expectations in four straight. He’s the shooting guard version of Monte Morris tonight, lacking huge upside but a clear value play.
D’Angelo Russell is over +3.75 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites. The Nuggets are missing so many guys that this could be a closer game than expected, and D-Lo has exceeded expectations in six of his last eight.
Small Forward
Studs
Should you play Giannis Antetokounmpo atop your lineup tonight? Our models sure don’t think so.
Antetokounmpo has a negative Projected Plus/Minus at both sites, including an ugly -4.44 at DraftKings. The problem is his towering price, along with so many other tasty bargains today (though you should keep an eye on the Boston inactives).
If Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown (or both) sit out, it makes this a much tastier matchup and could leave you with a chance to pivot to the league MVP in a sneaky spot.
Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) of the Milwaukee Bucks.
Brandon Ingram looks like the better stud play at his price, another Pelican benefiting from bonus usage with some key teammates out. Ingram is over +3.2 Projected Plus/Minus even in a poor matchup, thanks to his 36.6 projected minutes. He’s had some huge games and has been a bargain all season at DraftKings, where he’s exceeded expectations in 79% of his games with an average +6.22 all season.
Value
Mikal Bridges is the top value small forward tonight. Bridges used four steals his last time out to rack up almost 40 fantasy points, his best game all month. He’s over +4.3 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites and has a good looking matchup against the Knicks. He’s not going to have a great ceiling but should provide solid value, especially with Kelly Oubre sidelined and more minutes available.
Fast Break
If you’re looking for more upside, you can hope for a big scoring game from Bojan Bogdanovic. Bojan is more consistent than you’d think with an 82 Consistency score, but his scoring variance makes him an interesting tournament play in a great matchup against the Pelicans that could turn into a shootout. He’s over +3.8 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Cameron Johnson costs only $100 more than the minimum but is projected to play 25.2 minutes. He has not been a reliable fantasy option this season but doesn’t have to do much to justify a play at that price.
Power Forward
Studs
Our models are somewhat tepid on Kawhi Leonard tonight, even with Paul George out. Leonard has been heating up lately with over 60 fantasy points in two of his last three, but Orlando is a difficult matchup and you never really know how his minutes load will go.
Leonard is a much better play on FanDuel, where his 78% Bargain Rating helps him to a +4.95 Projected Plus/Minus and makes him an intriguing stud play tonight in a slate without many great high-end options.
Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Kawhi Leonard (2) of the Los Angeles Clippers.
Value
Michael Porter Jr. is the most fascinating bargain on the slate tonight. MPJ is still below $4,000 but could see a real opportunity tonight with Jamal Murray and Paul Millsap out, possibly along with Gary Harris. Porter has been all over the place with his results, but his ceiling is obvious.
He has scored at least 19 points in three of his last nine games, going over 27 fantasy points each time. Tonight could be Porter’s breakout game against the Warriors. He’s a huge swing or miss option, but tonight’s swing could produce a home run. He’s over +5.4 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Fast Break
If you want a safer option on the Nuggets, Jerami Grant is your guy. He should get the start in Millsap’s place, and he has an excellent +8.63 Projected Plus/Minus at his $4,000 FanDuel salary. He has a 98% Bargain Rating there.
Khem Birch is another great bargain option at the four. Birch is expected to start against the Clippers, and he’s produced some surprisingly lines when he gets enough minutes. The Clippers have oozed points to opposing big men, and Birch is talented. He’s over +4.75 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
Center
Studs
There are a couple stud center options tonight, and they both look … fine. Rudy Gobert has posted great numbers over the last month with Mike Conley out, but this matchup against the Pelicans is less than ideal and his price tag has risen. He’s playable at +2.77 Projected Plus/Minus at FanDuel but not recommended at DraftKings.
I’d rather roll the dice on Nikola Jokic putting up a big game for the Nuggets with so many of their usual stars sidelined. Maybe that will force Jokic to up his scoring and rebounding, and he’s in an excellent spot against the Warriors. Jokic has only a 72 Consistency rating, so you could get a dud, but this is the sort of matchup that could see him put up a huge number if he shows up. Jokic has tournament-winning upside tonight.
Value
One reason to avoid the expensive stud centers is to play a slightly cheaper Nikola Vucevic. Vooch is in a mash spot against the Clippers and he’s been a monster over the last month, exceeding expectations in 81% of his games with an average +5.83 per outing. He looks like a very strong option with over +5.1 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites. The Magic could be missing D.J. Augustin and Evan Fournier, so they’ll have to play through their big men.
Fast Break
If you can’t afford Vucevic, you might opt for Mo Bamba instead. Bamba is averaging 1.23 fantasy points per minute over the past month, and at his bargain price tag, he’s over +3.7 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites. He’s a very likely bet to outperform expectations against the Clippers.
Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Mo Bamba (5) of the Orlando Magic.
Deandre Ayton is another guy in a potential breakout spot in a great matchup against the Knicks. His ceiling is as high as any center’s tonight, and he’s an even better play at FanDuel with his 88% Bargain Rating. He has a huge +7.02 Projected Plus/Minus there.
Photo credit: Bart Young/NBAE via Getty Images.
Pictured above: Denver Nuggets guard Michael Porter Jr.
