The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a two-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.
With only two games and a slew of injuries, it’s slim pickings out there. You’re going to have to monitor injuries closely and take a few gambles.
Point Guard
Studs
With Damian Lillard out and Ricky Rubio, Anfernee Simons and Lonzo Ball all in doubt, Eric Bledsoe is the only even remotely reliable option available at point guard tonight. Bledsoe has an excellent matchup with a +3.29 Opponent Plus/Minus at DraftKings and is an especially good option there at $6,800. With Portland struggling through so many injuries, Bledsoe may not need to do as much defensively and could have a chance to do more on offense.
Value
Rubio is doubtful with back spasms, so that should mean another start for Jevon Carter. Carter played 32.8 and 24.4 minutes in two games with Rubio out, averaging 5.5 points, 4.0 assists and 3.0 stocks (steals plus blocks). It’s not much, but it’s over 20 fantasy points a game for the minimum at FanDuel and just above it at DraftKings, and that gives him better than a +3.0 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites. He’s a better play than Tyler Johnson, who has averaged 23 minutes off the bench in those two Rubio-less outings.
Fast Break
Anfernee Simons may be a winning option, but you’ll need to wait on your lineup until closer to game time since he’s questionable with an ankle injury. Simons disappointed a lot of owners in his first game with Lillard out on Tuesday, but he played a season-high 36 minutes, got 13 shots up and had a season-best four assists. At under $5,000 and over +5.0 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites, he’s a must play if he looks like a healthy go, especially in a plus matchup.
Your other questionable option is Lonzo Ball, who has missed the last six games. Our models currently give Lonzo a +6.61 Projected Plus/Minus and a 93% Bargain Rating at DraftKings, but you’re taking a huge gamble on Ball since he plays in the late game and you won’t have many other options even if you do have the opportunity to make a switch.
Shooting Guard
Studs
You’re definitely going to want to spend on at least one of three good shooting guard options tonight. Your most expensive option is Jrue Holiday, who’s been back in his old point guard role lately with Ball out. Holiday has outperformed projections in four of six games with Ball out and gone over 40 fantasy points in all but one of those games, thanks especially to a boost to 8.7 assists per game in that stretch.
Holiday is a safe play but has lower likelihood of exploding than your other two options here, and his ceiling drops further if Ball ends up playing. He’ll also be more important on defense than offense tonight with Devin Booker across from him. Be careful.
Speaking of Devin Booker, he’s your other stud option, but he’ll have his hands full against Holiday’s pesky defense. With Rubio and all of Phoenix’s usual centers out, it’s all on Booker tonight. That makes him the biggest swing player on the slate against a defense that has been very bad but whose one good option will blanket Booker all game. Remember, DFS isn’t about efficiency. Booker projects at 28.2% usage and a Projected Plus/Minus over +2.0 at both sites. He’s one of only three guys with the potential to have a tournament-swinging performance.
Value
There’s a third stud shooting guard on the slate tonight, and you won’t even have to pay stud pricing for him. That’s CJ McCollum, of course, who should get stud usage with Lillard out and possibly Simons and Hassan Whiteside, too. McCollum was a bit disappointing for owners who hurried to slot him in on Tuesday with Dame out, but he’s tough to leave out with his usage and huge upside at a relative bargain salary. He has the top Projected Plus/Minus of any player at FanDuel today at +7.82. If you do choose to fade McCollum and the crowds that will be playing him, you should make sure to pick another Blazer or two in his place; it could be an interesting tournament pivot.
Fast Break
It’s tough to get too excited about many of the shooting guard options outside of those three usage monsters. Wes Matthews will likely be the other starter, but Sterling Brown is the better DFS option. Brown has outperformed projections in five of six games, averaging over 21 fantasy points a game at FanDuel over that stretch. He’s quietly producing steady numbers with Khris Middleton out and has a +3.02 Projected Plus/Minus there.
Small Forward
Studs
There’s precious little to spend money on today (just wait until we get to the next two positions), so you’re going to have a really hard time not playing Giannis Antetokounmpo. Even at his mammoth price, Giannis has outperformed expectations in all but four games this year, continuing to put up unbelievable numbers night after night. He has a very good matchup against Portland in a prime-time game and should put on a show.
If you choose to fade Giannis tonight, you need a serious game plan. Maybe you think Milwaukee runs away with it early, limiting Greek Freak’s minutes and hoping he doesn’t do a ton early. That probably means investing in Bucks and Blazers role players (good god, is that Carmelo Anthony‘s music?!) hoping for a lot of second-half garbage time, and then it means spending on a lot of stars in the other game.
Value
Kelly Oubre started the season hot and has heated up again after a quieter stretch, with his two best fantasy games of the season over the past week, averaging 25 points and 7.5 rebounds in those two games. Oubre has a tasty matchup and might need to get up more shots than ever with Phoenix injuries and with Booker blanketed by Holiday. He’s a strong pivot from Booker, and you would be wise to get one of the two in your lineup.
Fast Break
Brandon Ingram was back with a vengeance against the Blazers on Tuesday night after missing his previous four games. Ingram has been a huge producer when on the court and picked up where he left off with 21 points, five boards and seven dimes. He’s exceeded expectations in 89% of his games at DraftKings, where his salary is still a massive bargain at $7,000. That gives him a +7.26 Projected Plus/Minus and a 93% Bargain Rating there. At FanDuel, Ingram costs $8,900 and has a negative Projected Plus/Minus, so it depends on the site.
There are a handful of playable Blazers options here, but our models like Rodney Hood a bit more than Nassir Little or Carmelo. All three are in a similar salary range, but Hood projects for the highest minutes and usage. At over a +4.0 Projected Plus/Minus, he’s a great bargain option at both sites.
Power Forward
Studs
Would you believe Dario Saric is the most expensive power forward option on the board at $5,100 on FanDuel? Saric’s numbers have been uneven in Phoenix, but with both Aron Baynes and Deandre Ayton out, the bargain play at the big men positions today is in Phoenix. Saric has five double-digit scoring games and two double-digit rebounding games as a Sun.
Today is the day to get Saric in your lineup. He projects for 29 minutes, 21.78% usage and a gigantic Projected Plus/Minus over +7.0 at both sites.
Value
Your other Suns option is Frank Kaminsky, who looked like he was breaking out earlier this season with Ayton out before Baynes took the larger role. Kaminsky has four 30-fantasy point games and has a high ceiling with more playing time coming in a plus matchup against a Pelicans team lacking big men. Kaminsky is over +6.0 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites. Either he or Saric will be in almost every lineup almost by default. Choose wisely, and consider playing both.
Fast Break
Keep an eye on Whiteside’s status. If he’s ruled out, Skal Labissiere could become one of the slate’s top bargain plays. Skal costs barely more than the minimum and will get big minutes by default if Whiteside is out or limited. He has a +3.12 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Want one more Suns option? Cheick Diallo is a hero play. He’s been below expectations every game this season but is Phoenix’s only “true” big man option and played his most minutes of the season Tuesday. Diallo plays for the minimum at FanDuel and has always been a good rebounder. If you don’t believe in Saric and Kaminsky and want a cheap punt, Diallo is a wing and a prayer.
Center
Studs
There are literally only five center options available at FanDuel, and two of them are questionable. Two of the others are twins, and Brook Lopez is the only safe play on the slate. BroLo has a golden matchup against Portland, with a +6.05 Opponent Plus/Minus. Lopez should see an ultimate green light whether Whiteside plays or not. He’s gone over expectations in six of his last eight games. There’s not a monster ceiling here, but at $6,800, he’s a nice set-it-and-forget-it option.
Value
Hassan Whiteside is questionable with a hip injury, but he plays in the early game, so you should be able to wait on a decision. Our models think he’s the center to play in a weak slate, especially at DraftKings, where Whiteside has 10 Pro Trends and a measly $6,500 salary despite producing 1.26 fantasy points per minute.
Whiteside would dominate physically against the Bucks, who give a +3.86 Opponent Plus/Minus at the position, and he gets a +6.28 Projected Plus/Minus at DraftKings. He’s a risky option, as that hip injury could flare up at any point even if he does get the start, but he could have game-changing upside if you get a full minutes load.
Fast Break
Jaxson Hayes has gone over expectations in four straight games with over 30 fantasy points in each of his last two games, but he’s now playing at his peak salary. Our models do not like Hayes, even in a weak slate, giving him a Projected Plus/Minus of -4.09 at FanDuel and a putrid -7.23 at DraftKings. But our models currently project Hayes at 18.5 minutes with Jahlil Okafor getting 15 minutes. Okafor is questionable with a sprained ankle. If he’s ruled out before tip, Hayes will be a more palatable option.
Photo credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: Dario Saric
