NBA DFS Breakdown (Thursday, 10/31): You Need to Make a Decision on Nikola Jokic

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Thursday features a three-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.

Point Guard

Studs

The meaning of “stud” is a bit relative today on a light slate with only three games and just three players going for over $9,000 on FanDuel. That’s especially true at PG, where the Trae Young injury leaves every option under $7,500.

If you can believe it, Lonzo Ball is as close as we get to a PG stud Thursday night. Ball is not much of a traditional scorer but has averaged over 13 points a game nonetheless and is filling up the box score with plenty of assists, rebounds, steals, and -yes, it’s true- even threes.

That said, this is Ball’s highest salary of the year, and his numbers may suffer with the return of Jrue Holiday to the lineup. Lonzo has been a volume play as much as anything at just 0.94 FanDuel points per minute, and we rate him at -1.08 Projected Plus/Minus, so this may not be a Ball night.

Your other relative “stud” is Jamal Murray, who looks like a better option. Studs aren’t normally chalk, but with the light PG slate and Murray’s relative bargain stud price tag at $7,100 on FanDuel, he’ll likely be in a ton of lineups. New Orleans has really struggled defensively with an Opposing Plus/Minus of +3.8 to point guards, so Murray looks like a strong play. He’s the highest usage point guard on the slate.

Value

If you can’t afford Murray or want to go in another direction, Patrick Beverley looks like a solid value. He has our second best Projected Plus/Minus among PGs at +1.55. It’s not a particularly kind matchup against the Spurs, but Beverley is one of only three PG-eligible players on FanDuel we project over 30 minutes, and volume is king.

Fast Break

Landry Shamet comes in at just $4,600 on FanDuel, a Bargain Rating of 88%. His scoring has been somewhat inconsistent, but he’s averaging 5.2 three-point attempts per game, so he’s getting shots up and gives you a nice ceiling in tournaments.

Shooting Guard

Studs

Jimmy Butler finally made his Heat debut last night against the Hawks with 21 points, five rebounds, two assists, and three steals, a solid all-around effort but one that came in 5.95 FanDuel points short of our projection. Despite that result, Butler’s price tag actually went up to $9,200, and we have him at a -2.53 Projected Plus/Minus tonight, again falling short of expectations.

Butler has a nice matchup against Atlanta but could see his minutes cut short if the Heat take care of business against an Atlanta team missing its star, especially with Butler still working back to fitness and on the second night of a back-to-back.

Jrue Holiday missed the last two games with a knee injury but is probable to make his return Thursday. Perhaps because of that injury, Holiday has been a major fantasy disappointment in his two games thus far, coming up 20.34 points short of our projections in those two games combined. Holiday’s usage has been way down this season with more options around him, and we have him at -5.47 Project Plus/Minus in FanDuel, likely making him a name to avoid at $8,800.

Value

With such bleak studs at SG, you may be looking for a cheaper option tonight, and your eyes should light up at DeAndre’ Bembry. Bembry started the second half at point guard in place of the injured Trae Young Tuesday night and finished with five assists.

Bembry developed some playmaking last season with 10 games of five or more assists, and we project him over 30 minutes, so he’s a volume play at a bargain price of just $4,700 at both DraftKings and FanDuel. We rate Bembry at +6.79 Projected Plus/Minus, our second highest of any player on Thursday night’s slate. He’s almost a must-roster with his price tag and usage combo.

Fast Break

DeMar DeRozan is a nice in between option. DeRozan started the year slow but scored 26 and 27 points his last two times out. He’s going to play a lot and shoot a lot, and he averages 1.13 DraftKings points per minute.

Kevin Huerter continues to be stuck on a 20-minute limit as he works his way back from injury, but he’s producing while on the court and at a season-low $4,000 price tag on FanDuel. His minutes restriction limits his upside, but he’s a relatively safe cheap option if you need to skimp.

Small Forward

Studs

Kawhi Leonard already took his first load management night, but he should be fresh and ready to go against the Spurs. It’s a revenge game opportunity for Kawhi against the team he played so many years for, but he already played them twice last year without too many sparks, so that may not play into things much.

Leonard has really increased his playmaking this season, averaging 7.5 assists per game along with his usual scoring load. Our tools have Kawhi at -1.35 Project Plus/Minus, but he’s exceeded our projections in three of four games this year with his continued playmaking. With so few stud options on the slate, Leonard will be on a lot of rosters.

It’s hard to believe, but Brandon Ingram has become a fantasy stud in a hurry in New Orleans. He’s averaging 27.3 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 4.8 dimes a game and has blown our projections out of the water thus far. Our system projected Ingram at 137.5 FanDuel points; through four games, he’s scored 197.1 instead, thanks to a lot of playing time, a ton of usage, and a real leap forward in play.

Ingram’s price tag has risen rapidly to stud level, and you’re paying peak price tag right now, but Ingram is still accessible at $7,900 on DraftKings and may be worth the play against a Denver team that doesn’t really have a great matchup for him.

Value

Speaking of the Nuggets, Will Barton continues to be a great value option. Barton is questionable with a toe injury, so be careful to monitor his injury status before making a decision. If he does play, Barton has been getting good volume and has seen a return to his high-usage role at the three. Barton has been a fantasy star in the past when healthy, but his price tag is still working its way back up. He’s a real bargain at $5,000 on DraftKings, where our models have him at +5.81 Projected Plus/Minus.

Fast Break

Rudy Gay is a solid, steady option. Gay may feel a bit boring but actually rates as our highest Project Plus/Minus among SFs at +3.18 on FanDuel. He doesn’t have a great ceiling, but with his ownership number expected to be low, he might be a nice set-it-and-forget-it option if you spend up elsewhere.

Power Forward

Studs

There are a bunch of good options at PF Thursday night but no true studs. LaMarcus Aldridge is the closest traditional answer. Aldridge has a solid matchup with an Opposing Plus/Minus of +1.3 on FanDuel against a Clippers team that doesn’t have much for traditional big man options.

Aldridge has a 100% Consistency Rating and has scored between 35 and 45 FanDuel points per game this season, though he could have a higher ceiling than you’d think against a Clippers team on the second night of a back-to-back and lacking any one option that can shut him down in the post.

John Collins continues to see his game expand. He’s not quite at 20 and 10 but is close as always, and he made five three-pointers last night for his highest FanDuel score of the season at 49.4. Collins is on his way up, both literally and figuratively, but he could struggle without his running mate, Trae Young, by his side. You might want to stay away from Collins until you see how he produces without his star point guard.

Value

JaMychal Green is top-7 in Projected Plus/Minus at both DraftKings and FanDuel, our model’s highest among all PFs. Green’s minutes have not been huge off the bench, but he’s seeing high usage when he does play and is coming off a 34.6 FanDuel point game Wednesday night, his season high. He might be the Clippers’ best matchup for LaMarcus Aldridge and is a sneaky, cheap option with a 83% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.

Fast Break

Bam Adebayo isn’t too far off stud level, compared to LMA and Collins. Adebayo continues to fill up the box score and adds a surprising playmaking element with 4.8 assists per game, and he’s outperformed our projections by double-digit FanDuel points in three straight games. He’s expected to be in many lineups as hot as he’s been lately.

Trey Lyles continues to start and get a surprising number of minutes for the Spurs, and they’ll want his spacing against the Clippers. He’s been producing well enough at 0.94 FanDuel points per minute and comes in at a 76% Bargain Rating.

Center

Studs

Probably the first choice you need to make building your lineup Thursday night is whether you’re in or out on Nikola Jokic. Jokic is the most expensive player on the slate and the biggest stud fantasy name, and on a night with so few true stud options and only three games, his inclusion or exclusion in your lineup will be a major determining factor.

Jokic has had a disappointing start to his season. True, he’s had two triple-doubles in four games, but one of those was the bare minimum 10/10/10, and he was really disappointing in both road starts, with only two assists in each.

Jokic has finished well short of our projections in three of four games, even including that 10/10/10 triple-double. Still, this could be the night Jokic busts out for a monster game. New Orleans is missing Derrick Favors and has no one else with even a chance of stopping Jokic, and the Pelicans have struggled mightily on defense even with Favors.

Jokic has a flashing green light +2.84 Opposing Plus/Minus and a monster ceiling of 65.9 points on FanDuel. He’s the one player Thursday night with tournament-winning upside all on his own — or tournament-losing upside if you make the wrong call. All the better that his relatively poor start gives him a Bargain Rating of 68% on FanDuel and a price tag of $10,400, his lowest of the season.

Value

Jahlil Okafor could not be a more obvious value play Thursday night with Derrick Favors sidelined. Jah has been a steady producer at 1.08 FanDuel points per minute, and he could be in for a big minutes boost with Favors out and no one else on New Orleans really built to handle Jokic. Okafor has our highest Projected Plus/Minus of any Thursday player at a whopping +8.49 on FanDuel and a dirt cheap $3,600 price tag. It feels like only foul trouble will keep him from being a steal.

Fast Break

Mason Plumlee is a direct fade to Jokic, or a cheaper option if you just can’t afford Nikola. He rates as a 66% leverage play if you want to fade Jokic hard in tournaments.

Montrezl Harrell always produces when on the floor, with a terrific 1.21 FanDuel points per minute. He has a nice enough matchup against the Spurs and is really the only non-Jokic sure thing center option on FanDuel on a light slate.

Photo credit: Michael Ciaglo-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured:Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15)