The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a five-game slate starting at 4 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
De’Aaron Fox was terrific on Thursday, exploding for 57.25 DraftKings points vs. the New Orleans Pelicans. Fox has been excellent in general in the bubble, logging at least 49.25 DraftKings points in three of four games.
He’s in another great spot today vs. the Brooklyn Nets. They rank ninth in pace this season, and they’ve played even faster in the bubble. They’ve also struggled defensively in Orlando, allowing opposing offenses to average 119.5 points per 100 possessions. Fox has arguably the highest ceiling at the PG position, yet he’s priced as just the sixth-most expensive option on DraftKings.
Value
The Wizards are another team with an excellent matchup today. They’re taking on the New Orleans Pelicans, who have been a fantasy goldmine this season. They’ve played at the second-fastest pace in the league, and they also rank just 18th in defensive efficiency.
Ish Smith stands out as an excellent value in this matchup. He’s recorded at least 28.25 DratKings points in three of his first four games, and the lone exception was when he was limited to just 22 minutes. As long as he sees his normal workload, he should provide excellent value at $5,000 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Dennis Schroder will miss another contest for the Oklahoma City Thunder, which makes Chris Paul an interesting option. He posted 36.4 FanDuel points sans Schroder in his last game, and he’s scored 45.2 FanDuel points in his only other game without Schroder this season. He’s also in a solid spot vs. the Memphis Grizzlies, who have played at the sixth-fastest pace this season.
Chris Chiozza stands out as one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $3,700, and he’s displayed solid upside when given the opportunity to play significant minutes. Joe Harris is questionable for today’s contest, and Chiozza figures to see a few additional minutes if he’s ultimately ruled out.
Make sure to get all the latest injury news on Chiozza and the rest of today’s slate with the new Labs Insiders tool.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t exactly priced like a stud at $6,800 on DraftKings, but he has the potential to provide stud-like production on today’s slate. Like Paul, he should benefit from the absence of Schroder. He’s scored at least 36.75 DraftKings points in both games without Schroder this season.
Unlike Paul, he doesn’t have the same playing time concerns. CP3 is an aging veteran, so the Thunder have been taking it easy on him in the bubble. SGA is just 22 years old, so head coach Billy Donovan has been more willing to let him run. He’s coming off 35.5 minutes in his last game despite the fact that the Thunder won that game by 19 points.
Value
Bogdan Bogdanovic is coming off a huge performance yesterday, logging 47.3 FanDuel points vs. the Pelicans. The fact that the game was only played yesterday will work in our favor here because he hasn’t had a chance to be priced up yet. The Kings are also fighting for their playoff lives, so there’s no reason to expect Bogdanovic to be limited.
Fast Break
Lugentz Dort is another member of the Thunder who deserves some consideration today. He’s priced at just $3,700 on FanDuel, and he’s carried a large workload for the Thunder in the bubble. He’s played at least 30.5 minutes in all four games, including more than 36 minutes two games ago vs. the Nuggets. Historically, players with a comparable price tag have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.82 when projected for at least 30 minutes (per the Trends tool).
Troy Brown Jr. has been one of the best sources of value for the Wizards in Orlando. He’s played at least 30.7 minutes in each of his past three games, and he’s scored at least 30.25 DraftKings points in all three. He’s a steal at $5,500.
Small Forward
Stud
The 76ers have a huge hole in their lineup after the injury to Ben Simmons. He partially dislocated his left kneecap in his last game, and it’s possible he could be forced to undergo season-ending surgery. At a bare minimum, he’s going to miss the next few games.
Tobias Harris should be asked to take on a larger role in his absence. He’s led the team with an average of 35.4 minutes per game in 11 games without Simmons, and he’s averaged 38.08 FanDuel points in those contests. That’s good for an average Plus/Minus of +7.7 at an average salary of just over $6,900. Harris is priced at just $6,800 on today’s slate, which makes him a strong target.
Value
OG Anunoby doesn’t usually possess a ton of ceiling, but he’s a pretty safe option at just $4,400 on FanDuel. He’s logged at least 31.7 minutes in each of his first three games in Orlando, and he’s averaged just under 25 FanDuel points per game.
Fast Break
Gordon Hayward has been priced down to just $5,900 on FanDuel, which is simply too cheap for him. He’s scored at least 31.9 FanDuel points in three of his past four games, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.02 with a comparable salary this season. He should also continue to benefit from Kemba Walker being limited, which further increases his upside.
Brandon Ingram could fly a bit under-the-radar today. Simmons will likely be the preferred target for those paying up at the position, but Ingram arguably has a higher upside. He has one of the best possible matchups vs. the Wizards, who have been crushed on the glass in addition to struggling on the defensive end. We’re still waiting on some Vegas data for this slate, but expect the Pelicans to own the highest implied team total.
Power Forward
Stud
The PF position is pretty thin on today’s slate. Jayson Tatum is priced as the clear top option on FanDuel at $7,500, and no other player at the position is priced above $5,900. Unsurprisingly, he leads all players at the position in terms of ceiling projection within our NBA Models.
That said, $7,500 isn’t all that expensive for Tatum. He was limited to just 18.4 minutes in his last contest – which the Celtics ultimately won by 36 points – but he had scored at least 34.9 FanDuel points in his previous two games. He’s also posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.35 with a comparable price tag this season.
He is in a tough spot vs. the Raptors, but this might be too good of a price tag to pass up.
Value
Al Horford is priced at just $4,800 on FanDuel, which seems really low with Simmons out of the lineup. There’s a chance that Horford moves back into the starting lineup, but he should see a bump in playing time even if he doesn’t. Overall, Horford has averaged 32.76 FanDuel points in 11 games without Simmons this season, which would be good for nearly 7x value on his current price tag.
Fast Break
Brandon Clarke didn’t see a huge jump in playing time in his first game without Jaren Jackson Jr., but I’m not giving up hope quite yet. For starters, Clarke has been awesome when on the floor this season, averaging 1.09 DraftKings points per minute. Even if he plays just 27.5 minutes – which is exactly what he played in his last contest – that should still give him a chance to pay off his $4,900 salary.
If you’re looking to go even cheaper, Darius Bazley is priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings. He’s coming off 22.2 minutes in his last game, and that number doesn’t figure to decrease with Schroder and Terrence Ferguson still out of the lineup. Bazley scored just 6.00 DraftKings points in that game, but guys with minimum salaries have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.80 when projected for 20-24 minutes.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid should have the opportunity to feast with Simmons out of the lineup. The 76ers’ offense in general has been better with just Embiid on the court and Simmons off the court, averaging 112.2 points per 100 possessions. Unsurprisingly, Embiid has also carved out a larger usage rate without Simmons: He’s posted a mark of 38.1% in six games with his star teammate out of the lineup.
Embiid has been priced up a bit on DraftKings, but he remains very affordable at $9,800 on FanDuel. That said, he has the highest ceiling on the slate regardless of where you play him.
Value
Richaun Holmes could be an interesting buy-low target. He hasn’t been very effective in the bubble, and he’s been playing around 25 minutes per game. Still, Holmes is the type of player who is capable of averaging well over 1.00 fantasy points per minute.
He’s been priced down to $4,900 on DraftKings, and he’s in an elite spot vs. the Nets. They’ve struggled vs. big men all season, so this matchup could be just what the doctor ordered for Holmes.
Fast Break
On the other side of that matchup, Jarrett Allen could be a viable option if he suits up. He’s currently listed as questionable – so you’ll need to monitor his status prior to lineup lock – but he’s underpriced on DraftKings if he’s active. He’s scored at least 29.0 DraftKings points in each of his past two games, including 48.75 DraftKings points vs. the Wizards. That gives him a solid ceiling at $5,500 if he sees a full complement of minutes.
Steven Adams has quietly gotten the job done for fantasy owners this season. He’s priced at $5,900 on FanDuel, and Adams has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.72 in 32 games with a comparable price tag.
