Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
Trae Young isn’t having the monstrous statistical season that was anticipated, but he’s still performing at an elite level.
On the season, he’s averaged 33.8 minutes and attempted 19.8 field goals, though he’s ice-cold from three (29%), and his 22.3 points are the lowest since his rookie campaign. Young has buoyed his production a little with a career-high 10.0 assists.
Once he finds his rhythm from long-range, Young should get back on track as one of the league’s highest-scoring guards. That could happen tonight in what projects to be the highest-scoring game on the slate. Young is a fine tournament option, given his immense upside.
Value
Since returning to the Sixers’ lineup, Shake Milton has averaged 17.5 minutes, 12 points, 3.5 dimes, 2.5 boards, and 1.0 combined blocks/steals. His price ($3,600 Draftkings, $4,500 FanDuel) hasn’t quite caught up with his production, so take advantage of the savings while you can.
Fast Break
Ok, so is the Damian Lillard breakout ever going to happen, or is he just going to play sub-par basketball all season? Dame has averaged 18.3 points on 34% shooting from the field and 23% from three across 32.8 minutes (all career lows). You can continue to roll with him as a hail-mary GPP play or do the wiser thing and stay off him completely.
After his efficiency took a dip in Year 2, Ja Morant is back and better than ever in Year 3. His shooting has been phenomenal, as he’s averaged 28.7 points (tied for most in the NBA) and 2.3 triples on 52/39/84 splits. All of those marks are easily the best of his career. Keep riding the hot hand.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Over his last two games, Bradley Beal has averaged 31.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 7.0 assists, and 2.0 combined blocks/steals. Tonight, he’ll square off against a Hawks team ranked just ahead of Washington in offensive rating.
The over/under on this one is unsurprisingly the highest on the slate at 223.0, and Beal should have no problem stuffing the stat sheet for a third straight contest.
Value
Bogdan Bogdanovic has been underwhelming thus far based on last season’s strong performance, though he remains highly involved in Atlanta’s game plan, having averaged over 30 minutes per contest on the season.
He may have turned a corner, as Bogy has averaged 28.5 fantasy points per game across his last three. At just $5,200 on DraftKings and $5,100 on FanDuel, he’s showing a (5x) floor. Hopefully, we get the ceiling against Washington in a highly-favorable game environment.
Fast Break
Collin Sexton has scored 14 points or fewer in four of his last five games, including a combined 19 over his last two. After averaging at least 20 points per game in each of his last two seasons, Sexton’s scoring woes are a very real concern.
Alex Caruso ranks third in the NBA with 2.7 steals per contest, and those elite defensive numbers provide a sturdy fantasy floor.
Small Forward
Stud
DeMar DeRozan comes in with the second-highest ceiling among small forwards on tonight’s slate (behind only Jayson Tatum), though his matchup with Boston is a bit better than Tatum’s matchup is with Chicago.
The Celtics offer an advantageous 1.82 Opponent Plus/Minus and a pace-up spot for DeRozan and the Bulls. Over his last five games, DeRozan has commanded at least 30% usage and scored at least 20 points in every contest.
Value
Kyle Kuzma has seen his playing time and production spike dramatically since leaving LeBron James’ and Anthony Davis’ shadows.
He’s averaging 15.5 points, 11.8 boards, and 1.9 combined blocks/steals on the season and went for 21 points, eight boards, and three swipes when the Hawks and Wiz met last week. He’s a strong Points/Salary play with a reliable floor in a fantastic matchup.
Fast Break
Miles Bridges has gotten off to a blistering start this season, averaging 24.6 points, 7.7 boards, 2.9 triples, and 2.3 combined blocks/steals through seven games. His 1.21 Fantasy Points/Minute rank fourth among small forwards on the slate tonight.
Matisse Thybulle has racked up 13 combined blocks/steals, five assists, and just one turnover over his last three games. The defensive wunderkind doesn’t need to score double-digit points to reach strong fantasy value, which gives him a nice floor.
Power Forward
Stud
Domantas Sabonis has put on a show to start the season, and he’s coming off his best game in a week after posting 22 points, 14 boards, three steals, and two assists against Toronto on Saturday.
He has the highest projected ceiling of any PF on the slate, and he gets the benefit of a +1.12 Opponent Plus/Minus and a pace-up spot for his Pacers against the Spurs.
Value
Mo Bamba has taken the NBA by storm thus far, stroking threes, crashing the glass with authority, and swatting shots at will. Chuma Okeke returned to the lineup Saturday, though he logged just 14 minutes to Bamba’s 29.
Breakout Bamba clocks in at $6,600 on FanDuel and $7,100 on DraftKings, and for a guy with a 54-point ceiling on both sites, that’s still excellent value.
Note: Bamba is only eligible at PF on FanDuel. He is eligible at C on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Fast Break
Wendell Carter has averaged 12.6 points, 9.3 boards, and a block to start his first full season with the Magic, and he’s done so starting alongside the aforementioned Bamba. Minnesota has been a friendly matchup to opposing bigs, and both Carter and Bamba are in play on tonight’s slate.
In what’s started out as a promising revival to his career, Montrezl Harrell has been huge for Washington, leaving his limited play and lacking numbers with the Lakers in the rearview mirror. Over his last three games, Trezz has posted 70 points, 38 rebounds, and six combined blocks/steals.
Center
Stud
Nikola Vucevic has one of the highest ceilings of any center on tonight’s slate, and on FanDuel (where his price is mightily depressed), he also projects as one of the best Point/Salary options as well at just $8,400.
Vooch gets a 95% Bargain Rating for those who consider him on FanDuel, and he projects to be 13-16% rostered for a 67% Leverage Rating. The Opponent Plus/Minus is a robust 5.9, and Chicago gets a pace-up draw with Boston. Chicago’s big man has a lot working in his favor tonight.
Value
Clint Capela is a much better value on FanDuel (95% Bargain Rating), though he’s a solid play on both sites with low projected ownership.His points and rebounds have been down this season, but the 20/20 upside remains.
Fast Break
Nikola Jokic has two games this season with at least 26 points, 16 rebounds, seven assists, and four combined blocks/steals. That incredible upside is virtually unmatched across the Association.
Karl-Anthony Towns has averaged 3.2 combined blocks/steals to go with 25.2 points and 3.8 dimes. Despite a decline in rebounds, KAT’s numbers have been phenomenal to kick off the 2021-22 campaign.
