Happy New Year! It’s a busy 10-game slate to open the week, so let’s dive into some of the top plays using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
James Harden has provided some vintage performances over the last week, posting the gaudy stat lines that fantasy managers and DFS players crave. He’s recorded four straight games with at least 30 points, three triple-doubles and four double-doubles.
In that span, The Beard has averaged over 70 fantasy points per game. The matchup with Memphis is a small pace-down spot, but he gets a favorable Opponent Plus/Minus and a healthy 225.5 over/under. There’s no reason to quit riding the hot hand of Harden, given his blistering stretch.
Value
Damian Lillard is out tonight for maintenance on his lingering ab injury, and Anfernee Simons has cleared protocols but may need some time off for conditioning before returning to the court.
Dennis Smith Jr. made his return in Portland’s last game and went for 4/7/6/1/1 across 24 minutes on New Year’s Eve. He’s a fine value play ($5,500 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel), especially if Simons doesn’t play.
Fast Break
Luka Doncic returned from an extended absence and went 14/10/9 against the Thunder on Monday, though he turned the ball over seven times. Doncic’s price is lower than usual at $10,900 on DraftKings and $10,000 on FanDuel, so he’s worth getting a little exposure to in multi-entry tournaments. However, he should be avoided in cash games.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Bradley Beal dished a career-high 17 dimes Saturday against Chicago, and he’s now posted two straight double-doubles with points and assists. Spencer Dinwiddie, Raul Neto and Aaron Holiday are all out, meaning Beal should assume point guard duties yet again while remaining Washington’s primary scoring option on offense.
Beal will be playing in an excellent game environment with a huge Pace Differential and strong Opponent Plus/Minus against Charlotte. Beal is in a smash spot here, and he should be a chalky option.
Value
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot ($3,000 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel) is a guy our model really likes tonight, and what better way to ring in the new year than with some good, old fashioned TLC.
With Atlanta down numerous players due to protocols, TLC should slot into the Hawks’ starting five, and our model projects him for 32 minutes. Across four games he’s played with at least 30 minutes this season, TLC has averaged 10.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, 2.5 triples, 1.8 dimes and 1.3 stocks.
Fast Break
Lou Williams ($4,000 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel) is another Hawk to keep an eye on tonight. Atlanta has already ruled out several key players, but guys like Delon Wright and Kevin Huerter have cleared protocols and are GTD due to conditioning. Pay attention to Atlanta’s injury report ahead of tip-off tonight, as Lemon Pepper Lou could repeat the 14/5/3 line he posted Friday against Cleveland.
Small Forward
Stud
Jimmy Butler has averaged 26.3 points, 7.0 dimes, 6.7 boards and 3.3 stocks over his last three games, and he’ll once again lead the shorthanded Heat tonight. The matchup with Golden State gives Butler a favorable Opponent Plus/Minus and a big Pace Differential in a matchup with a 218.5 over/under.
Value
Tyler Herro ($7,200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) is yet another member of the Heat who should be on fantasy radars. He’s priced a little higher than usual for a value play, but our NBA Models give him a strong Points/Salary projection with 21.0 points, 5.8 dimes, 3.8 boards and 2.8 triples.
Miami is still without most of its lineup, leaving Herro as a primary scorer and playmaker. He’s reasonably priced with a ceiling of more than 50 points on DraftKings and just under 50 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Hamidou Diallo has been unbelievable over his last three games, averaging a monster line of 31.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, 5.0 stocks and 3.3 dimes. Cade Cunningham and Killian Hayes will be available tonight, which may ding Diallo’s production, but his recent hot streak simply can’t be ignored. He stands out as an excellent value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 97%.
Power Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo has averaged 33.0 points, 11.5 boards, 6.5 dimes and 2.3 stocks in four games since returning from protocols, and he just posted a monster triple-double against the Pelicans on New Year’s Day.
He gets a vulnerable Detroit defense tonight that gives him a favorable Opponent Plus/Minus and a neutral Pace Differential. Despite his salary creeping toward $12,000 on both sites, he’s worth the elevated price tag given his massive ceiling.
Value
Killian Tillie ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) hasn’t posted any eye-popping numbers this season, but he’s played well enough of late to earn a regular contract with Memphis.
Fresh off his best game of the campaign (5/4/3 with two blocks and two steals), Tillie has some appeal tonight against the Nets in a favorable game environment. Our model projects him for 28 minutes.
Fast Break
Draymond Green has cleared health and safety protocols and will be available tonight against Miami. In three games prior to his two-game absence, Green averaged 10.7 points, 9.7 assists, 8.0 rebounds and a whopping 5.0 stocks. As long as he’s not on a minutes limit, he should eat against Miami’s decimated frontcourt.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid has been on fire recently, and he should feast against a Rockets team that is quickly spiraling out of control. Christian Wood came off the bench Saturday and played eight first-half minutes before refusing to play in the second half, and he’s been suspended for tonight’s game. Alperen Sengun is out with an ankle injury, so this already-juicy matchup is even better for Embiid.
Embiid has averaged 35.3 points, 10.3 boards, 2.6 stocks, 2.3 triples and 2.0 dimes over his last three contests, and he’s scored at least 30 points in four of his last six. The Opponent Plus/Minus and Pace Differential are massive, and Embiid should be a core play tonight.
Value
Daniel Gafford has averaged 15.3 points, 9.3 boards and 2.3 blocks over his last three games while posting one double-double and playing at least 30 minutes in two of those.
Tonight, he gets one of the most favorable matchups for opposing centers and a 227.5 over/under, the highest on the slate. Gafford makes a fantastic value against Charlotte.
Fast Break
Omer Yurtseven will continue to be written up glowingly until his salary eventually makes him too expensive to be a value any longer. He’s started each of the Heat’s last three games and averaged 12.0 points, 14.0 boards and 2.4 stocks across 31.6 minutes while posting a double-double in each contest.
Photo Credit: Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images. Pictured: Joel Embiid
