The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Luka Doncic is questionable to suit up tonight with a sprained wrist, and he may not be worth the investment even if he’s cleared. Our models are projecting him at 36.4 minutes and still relatively tepid on his chances tonight, rating him a +4 Projected Plus/Minus or lower at both sites. That’s not terrible but it makes sense when you see how Doncic has averaged a -1.44 Plus/Minus over the past 10 games, dropping from 1.82 fantasy points per minute on the season to just 1.59 over the past month.
If you’re looking for a point guard stud, Russell Westbrook looks like the better option tonight. Westbrook has exceeded expectations in 64% of his games over the past month and continues to thrive in this Houston small-ball setup. No reason for that to slow down tonight against Minnesota, a team with plenty of pace and very little defensive resistance. That looks like tonight’s highest scoring game, so you’re going to want some Rockets in your lineup tonight. Russ is over a +5.5 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
It’s finally happening. Coby White is finally making his first start as a pro. White has been a monster of late, averaging a whopping +14.31 Plus/Minus over his past 10 games. During that stretch, he’s averaged 24.1 points and 4.5 assists along with 3.5 threes per game. Could those numbers go up even further in a start? It’s only Cleveland so it won’t be a difficult test. White’s back court mate Shaq Harrison also looks like a monster value play at over +8.8 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
It’s a pretty tasty matchup tonight for Markelle Fultz, who benefits from a +2.29 Opponent Plus/Minus and a +4.7 pace differential against Orlando. Fultz has four 30-point fantasy games over his last 11 outings and has a good chance to get there again. Fultz is an especially strong play at FanDuel, where he has a 97% Bargain Rating and a +9.5 Projected Plus/Minus.
It’s a tough matchup for Aaron Holiday against Boston, but he’s still getting a lot of minutes and usage with the Malcolm Brogdon and Victor Oladipo injuries. That hasn’t led to much production yet, but with a projected 32.6 minutes and a salary under $5,000, he looks like a good bargain gamble, with over a +6.6 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
You might just want to write James Harden right into your lineup from the get-go tonight. Harden has exceeded expectations in 60% of his games this month even at his salary, and tonight’s game against the Wolves should leave all sorts of opportunity for points and assists, especially with Eric Gordon and Ben McLemore potentially sidelined. Harden is over a +6.6 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites and leads all shooting guards at FanDuel with a +9.34.
If you want to fade the public, Bradley Beal looks like a strong stud option too. Beal is averaging a +5.92 Plus/Minus over the past month, and that’s up to a +7.73 over the past 10 games, including seven 50-point fantasy games. That’s about where we project him tonight. Beal is a better FanDuel play at +5.43 Projected Plus/Minus.
The Spurs are relying more on their perimeter players with LaMarcus Aldridge out, and DeMar DeRozan is the biggest beneficiary. It’s a great spot for DeMar against Dallas, and he’s been hot with San Antonio’s improved spacing, exceeding expectations in 69% of his games this month.
He’s over a +7.2 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites. You can also look to many of DeRozan’s teammates as potential value plays, like Derrick White, Bryn Forbes, and Patty Mills. I’d be sure to play at least one of those Spurs tonight, and that’s the order I’d play them in, with White the best of the three.
Former Spur Danny Green looks good tonight, especially at DraftKings, where he leads all shooting guards with a +7.68 Projected Plus/Minus. Green is playing for barely above the minimum, and with the Lakers potentially resting a few of their big minute guys tonight, he should outperform his price.
Few players have been as hot as Terrence Ross, who’s gone over fantasy expectations now in 15 straight games at FanDuel. He’s over a +9 Plus/Minus in seven of his last nine games and has a tasty matchup tonight against Memphis. And now that Evan Fournier is out hurt, Ross will keep gunning more than ever.
LeBron James is questionable tonight with a sore groin, and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him sit out after such an impressive weekend. LeBron is averaging a +6.5 Plus/Minus over his past 10 games and Brooklyn is an easy matchup, but our models are fading James tonight and I am too. With the injury and a chance of an easy win, there are just too many ways for James to end up short of the production needed to justify the heavy investment.
Mikal Bridges leads all small forwards at FanDuel with a +8.15 Projected Plus/Minus. He’s finally seeing more usage of late, with five 29-point fantasy games in his last six, and his implied salary is still only around 23 at both sites. With Bridges shooting more and playing a projected 39.1 minutes, he is a strong bet to outperform his salary.
Juan Hernangomez looks like he’s found a home in Minnesota. He’s nearly averaging a double-double over his past six games and benefits tonight from a +3.88 Opponent Plus/Minus in Houston. He’s over a +3.2 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
T.J. Warren is a good mid-priced option against Boston, and he could be an even better option if Victor Oladipo misses again. Even with Dipo expected to play, Warren is over a +3.6 Projected Plus/Minus. If Oladipo is out, Warren might actually be the best small forward play tonight.
Brooklyn has struggled against opposing big men, so Anthony Davis could see a big night tonight, perhaps even bigger if LeBron James ends up sitting out. Brooklyn offers a +3.45 Opponent Plus/Minus, and Davis is over a +4.7 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites. Davis tends to have some variance in his scoring but can put up a monster number when he’s on, and tonight could be one of those nights.
I’m fading Kawhi Leonard tonight against the Warriors, especially with Golden State’s stars likely out. Leonard is under a +4 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites and could end up riding easy in a blowout win tonight against the worst team in the league.
Kristaps Porzingis was horrible Sunday against the Pacers, but he’s been a monster lately. Even including that Indiana flop, Porzingis is averaging a +11.08 Plus/Minus over his last 10 with six 55-point fantasy games. His scoring and blocks are both up, and he’s over a +6.7 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites and playing like a stud.
Robert Covington has finally slowed down the last few games but is still averaging a +7.48 Plus/Minus over the past month. He’s still exceeding expectations in eight of the last 10 games and among the top power forward Projected Plus/Minus options at both sites with over a +7.5
Rui Hachimura continues to be uneven as a rookie, with duds his last two times out, but the Knicks should leave plenty of chances for scoring. He’s over a +7.4 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites and comes at a relative bargain price thanks to that recent stretch.
Hassan Whiteside has been a fantasy monster all season, exceeding expectations in 68% of his games all season with a +4.05 Plus/Minus average. Whiteside has at least 49 fantasy points in six of his last nine games and should be in a good spot against Phoenix, especially if Deandre Ayton (questionable) ends up sitting with that ankle injury. He’s over a +4 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites again.
Marquese Chriss has crushed it over the past month, averaging a +9.59 Plus/Minus during that stretch, exceeding expectations in 86% of those games. He’s an easy play in a great spot against the Clippers, who have struggled against opposing centers in fantasy all season. He’s over a +4.5 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites.
If you’re at FanDuel, Nikola Vucevic could be a great option tonight with his 97% Bargain Rating and +8.29 Projected Plus/Minus. Vooch has 13 Pro Trends and is averaging a +5.19 Plus/Minus over the past month, and he’s another Magic player that should see a usage boost with Fournier out.
I love Bobby Portis tonight, especially against a former team in Washington. A motivated Portis is always dangerous, and the Wizards offer a +2.65 Opponent Plus/Minus and a +4.6 pace differential. At over a +4.8 Projected Plus/Minus at both sites, he looks like the best bargain option at center.
Pictured above: Russell Westbrook #0 high-fives James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets
Photo credit: Cato Cataldo/NBAE via Getty Images