Identifying value is paramount to success in NBA DFS. If we want to be able to roster the high-floor/high-ceiling premium players like Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and others, concessions – in the form of low priced players – need to be made. Lucky for us, value is constantly popping up due the nature of the NBA. Whether it be injuries, rest or rotational changes, it is not uncommon to find players thrust into more meaningful roles on a regular basis in this league. When such changes occur, daily fantasy sites generally won’t have the ability to update the player’s pricing to reflect their new role and playing time and this is where we find our value.
At FantasyLabs, we like to take things one step further. Not only will we be identifying players based upon their expected fantasy output in relation to their price, we’ll be incorporating our Bargain Rating into the equation whenever possible as well. If you’re unfamiliar with this metric, I recommend taking a look at this short video from our co-founder Jonathan Bales on how he uses this rating within our Player Models tool.
Please note, this article is written earlier in the day. As much of the news surrounding the NBA breaks near tip off, please monitor our Player News page for all relevant updates.
Point Guard
Norris Cole – $5,200
Lost amidst much of the Memphis Grizzlies fiasco on Monday was Cole’s strong performance with Eric Gordon out of the lineup. Cole flourished in the role, filling up the stat sheet to the tune of 23 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists and 3 steals, on his way to 46.75 DraftKings (DK) points.
Forced to sit out his last game with injury, Cole is once again listed as questionable tonight, so it’ll be particularly important to monitor his situation as the day progresses.
But if he can go, he’ll face a Memphis team bereft of healthy point guards. Street free agent Briante Weber is the only point guard on the roster at the moment and we’ll likely see him and Lance Stephenson running the point tonight.
I honestly don’t know enough about Weber to comment on his defensive prowess, but a player fresh off of the street is never a bad place to start when attempting to attack a defensive unit. I’m not sure how the defensive assignments would shake out if we see Stephenson at the point for any extensive amount of time, but Cole would have likely have no trouble exploiting the much larger 230 lb. Stephenson and his Defensive Real Plus/Minus of -1.27.
It’s possible Cole could see Tony Allen at times, but with Jrue Holiday’s presence, I’d envision the Grizzlies will opt to utilize Allen on him extensively this evening.
This situation is in flux due to all of the injuries, but the game is projected to be close at the time of this writing – the spread is only 1.5 points – which should allow Cole to see plenty of playing if he can suit up this evening.
Shooting Guard
Andrew Wiggins – $5,800
Wiggins has turned it on the past three games, which has actually coincided with a price drop.
Everyday when I begin my research for this column, I start with a Trend that I’ve found to be quite powerful in terms of projecting performance for under-priced players.
By utilizing our Trends tool, I’ve prepared a Trend that will look at players priced under $6,000 on DK that we’ve projected to play at least 30 minutes and have a usage rate of at least 25%; here are the results of the Trend for the 2015-2016 season:
As you can see, the Plus/Minus and Consistency of the Trend are ridiculous, which is why I often look to incorporate many of the matches into the column. Generally we’ll have at least two or three matches for this Trend, but today we have just one: Wiggins. And because he’s actually been in this scenario a number of times this season, I thought we’d break the Trend down a bit further, to see how he’s performed under these conditions this year.
The sample size is small, but let’s focus on the concept behind the Trend itself more than the impressive results.
Wiggins will be on the court a lot tonight – we currently have him projected for 34.4 minutes, subscribers can check out the rest of our projections on our Player Models page – and will likely see heavy usage. At his price point, it’s difficult to obtain these two things.
What’s more intriguing than the Trend itself? That 225.5 over/under his matchup with the Thunder carries. There’s always the risk of a blowout against OKC, but the upside is there tonight.
Small Forward
Jae Crowder – $5,500
I debated about rolling out Rudy Gay and his still-too-low price again in the small forward slot, but after reviewing game logs of recent performances – and factoring in the matchup – I think I prefer the $500 of savings offered by Crowder.
And while I generally associate Crowder with being more of a high-floor, cash-game type of player that lacks the ceiling Gay may possess, I may have been letting my perception of him creep in and push out his actual recent production.
Since the All-Star Break, Crowder has hit 35 DK points on three occasions. Gay? Four.
I’m not necessarily saying he has elite upside, but in a matchup against a Houston team that will have an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.96 and carries an over/under of 222, I think there’s potential for a really nice performance from Crowder tonight.
At a 90% Bargain Rating, he’s criminally under-priced at the moment, which makes this evening’s game an ideal spot to utilize him.
Power Forward
JaMychal Green – $5,700
Yes Zach Randolph may play tonight and yes Green’s price has risen $2,000 in four days. But you know what? I’m actually kind of okay with both.
Green’s ownership had gotten out of hand and it really wasn’t even fun to have him in play. He was too cheap to bother fading and his huge performance did nothing to help your roster because of his high ownership.
Now, with both of the above factors in play, and a plethora of big names at the position available, we’ll hopefully see his ownership decrease tonight.
I’m not expecting it to drop to even an reasonable range – far too many players will look at his recent game log and lock him in – but a big reduction should be in store.
If Randolph plays, we should see Green get plenty of time at the five, which sets up nicely for him against New Orleans.
With a Bargain Rating of 93%, it makes the most sense to target Green on DK if you opt to roster him tonight.
Center
Robin Lopez – $5,700
There are some really tempting options on the higher side of the pricing spectrum at center tonight on DK. Hassan Whiteside, Dwight Howard, and Brook Lopez all find themselves in very inviting spots and I’m not certain pivoting down to a lower-priced option is necessary, but if we’re looking at a little bit more contrarian option for tournaments, Robin Lopez has flashed upside over the past month.
He is volatile, there’s no debating that. But his ability to produce games with DK points in upper 30 to low 40 range at his price keeps him in play for tournaments.
Let’s look at how he has stacked up over the previous five games against the three higher-priced options mentioned above.
He’s likely not going to get up to the 50-60 DK point range like the others have shown an ability to do. But coming in at $2,000 cheaper than all three of these options tonight, he doesn’t really have to.
As he’s shown over the past couple of weeks, he’s capable of returning elite value if everything lines up well, but he’s just as likely to sink any lineup you place him into. With his matchup with the Clippers boasting an Opponent Plus/Minus rating of +2.92 this evening, it’s not a bad time to gain some tournament exposure to him if you’re looking to differentiate at the position.
