Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Nationals (-245) at Orioles (+223) — 7:05 PM EST
Nationals out:
Nationals in:
Juan Soto will bat leadoff in for the first time since joining the Nationals, and the other hitters typically in the top-five spots of the batting order will move down a spot in the lineup. Soto leads the team with a 56% hard-hit rate since being promoted from the minors, and he costs no more than $3,800 on DraftKings and FanDuel. Orioles’ starter David Hess has the lowest strikeout rate (5.223) and second-highest HR/9 rate (2.009) on the slate, and the Nationals’ implied total has already increased 0.2 runs since the lineup was confirmed to 5.3. The Nationals presently have the fourth-highest Team Value Rating (76) on DraftKings, and any stack will likely include Soto.
Orioles out: Danny Valencia (paternity)
Orioles in: Jace Peterson
Jace Peterson will bat leadoff for the first time this season, and he gets to do so against righty Max Scherzer and the Nationals on Wednesday. Former leadoff hitter Trey Mancini has been dropped to seventh in the batting order, and Danny Valencia is out of the lineup for the second straight game after going on paternity leave. The Orioles are presently one of six teams implied to score no more than 3.5 runs in the main slate, and Scherzer is the highest-priced pitcher by at least $2,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel. Alas, when Scherzer has cost at least $13,000 on DraftKings, he’s averaged a FantasyLabs’ +3.19 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 27.5% average tournament ownership. His 11.0 K Prediction is tied for the highest mark in our database, and when he’s had K Prediction of at least 10.0, he’s averaged 28.55 DraftKings points in 12 instances.
Cubs (-134) at Pirates (+124) — 7:05 PM EST
Cubs in: Albert Almora
Cubs out: Ben Zobrist
The Cubs will bat Albert Almora, Javier Baez, and Kris Bryant at the top of the order for their matchup against the Pirates. They’re currently implied to score a respectable 4.3 runs and have combined to post a .322 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past calendar year – the fifth-highest mark in Wednesday’s main slate. Overall, each of Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, and Jason Heyward have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Still, Joe Musgrove has historically done a great job limiting big hits, ranking among the main slate’s top-four pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate allowed over the past calendar year. He’s particularly in play on FanDuel, where Musgrove’s $5,500 price tag comes with a 91 percent Bargain Rating and a +4.18 Projected Plus/Minus. Both pitchers could benefit from estimated wind gusts of 10 miles per hour blowing in from center.
Pirates in: Francisco Cervelli (illness), Gregory Polanco
Pirates out: Starling Marte
Francisco Cervelli missed three consecutive games with an illness, but he’ll catch and bat third for a Pirates lineup currently implied to score just 3.8 runs. Starling Marte will receive a routine day off, so the Pirates will roll with Corey Dickerson, Austin Meadows, and Gregory Polanco from left to right field. They’ll bat fifth, second, and seventh, respectively, and are set up well against Kyle Hendricks, who ranks among the main slate’s bottom-six pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days. Hendricks doesn’t carry much strikeout upside against a Pirates lineup that has combined to strike out every .161 at-bats over the past calendar year – the lowest mark in Wednesday’s main slate. The Cubs-Pirates’ matchup currently boasts the fourth-most hitter-friendly Weather Rating in Wednesday’s main slate despite estimated wind gusts of 11 miles per hour blowing in from center.
Mets (+135) at Braves (-146) — 7:35 PM EST
Mets out: Michael Conforto
Mets in: Luis Guillorme
Michael Conforto will receive a normal rest day against the Braves on Wednesday, and Luis Guillorme will move into the lineup while Jose Bautista shifts to left field. Jay Bruce will bat cleanup for a Mets squad presently implied to score 4.1 runs, and no hitter costs more than $3,900 on DraftKings or FanDuel for the Mets. The top-four hitters in the lineup all have a recent hard-hit rate of at least 41%, and Braves’ righty Julio Teheran has allowed the fifth-highest hard-hit rate (44%) over the last 15 days. Asdrubal Cabrera leads the Mets and all second basemen with a 55% recent hard-hit rate, and he should be among the top options at the position.
