Salaries across sites can change with each slate for a variety of reasons: Matchups, recent results, historical performances in particular settings, etc. Salary Change for pitchers is especially notable, as the largest swings in salary often occur at the position.
By using our free Trends tool to screen for pitchers with a one-month salary decrease of $2,100 to $5,100 on DraftKings, you’ll find that such pitchers have produced a +0.35 Plus/Minus. Conversely, a salary increase of $2,100 to $4,700 has resulted in a -0.73 Plus/Minus. Given these larger trends, targeting pitchers with decreased salaries and avoiding those with elevated salaries should provide DFS players with a significant edge.
Fitting the Description
Let’s take a look at some of today’s more intriguing pitching options, noting those whose salaries have changed substantially since their previous outings. One-start salary changes and other information can be found easily via Player Cards or the Widgets of players discussed.
Jacob deGrom, NYM: +$1,200 Salary Change at DraftKings
It was only a matter of time before deGrom’s salary skyrocketed, seeing as he has a +6.66 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in his last four starts. But even with the salary increase he’s still arguably the slate’s top pitching option since the Braves have an implied Vegas total of only 2.7 runs. In fact, in the 10 times Atlanta has been implied to score fewer than three runs this season, the opposing pitcher has flourished with a +3.54 Plus/Minus. Note that, per our advanced stats, deGrom has allowed a recent hard-hit rate nine percentage points lower than his yearly average. He’s being backed by the most moneyline bets today for a reason.
Plus/Minus, Salary Change, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Carlos Carrasco, CLE: -$2,100 Salary Change at DraftKings
Carrasco has failed to meet salary-based expectations in three consecutive starts, recording a -9.73 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in that span. But those are just results. In the last two weeks, he has allowed a respectable 203-foot batted-ball distance and averaged seven strikeouts per start. His 33-percent Dud rate in the last month is worrisome, but his prospects for this matchup are improving, as the White Sox have seen their implied total decrease by 0.2 runs since opening and their projected lineup is averaging .273 strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB). Carrasco’s recent stats and matchup are good enough to assuage any concerns you may have about his poor results of late.
Kenta Maeda, LAD: +$400 Salary Change at FanDuel
Maeda’s salary has increased more at DraftKings since his last start, but FanDuel is where he has a 95-percent Bargain Rating. Nonetheless, he remains a terrific option on both sites. Just note Milwaukee’s .289 SO/AB and that Maeda has averaged as many FanDuel points as David Price over the past month. Maeda has also exceeded salary-based expectations by +10.50 FanDuel points per start in his last four games.
Tom Koehler, MIA: -$500 Salary Change at DraftKings
Despite having a +5.66 Plus/Minus at DraftKings over his last four starts, Koehler has experienced a -$500 salary decrease since Tuesday. A number of reasons exist for exploiting that salary change. Koehler has a slate-best Park Factor and recent exit velocity allowed. Furthermore, he has allowed a recent batted-ball distance 16 feet shorter and a recent hard-hit rate 14 percentage points lower than his yearly averages. As for today, the Rockies’ projected lineup is averaging .265 SO/AB.
David Price, BOS: +$1,300 Salary Change at DraftKings
Seattle’s projected lineup has a strong .329 Weighted On-Base Average, but Price is notably one of only two pitchers today who has allowed a single-digit line-drive percentage over the last two weeks, in which time he has recorded a +11.77 Plus/Minus at DraftKings as well. He has also allowed an exit velocity of only 88 miles per hour in that timeframe. Price’s elevated salary is both warranted and manageable.
Jake Peavy, SF: +$200 Salary Change at FanDuel
Peavy’s salary probably should’ve increased by more. His 88-MPH recent exit velocity allowed is the same as Carrasco’s and Price’s. It doesn’t help that Peavy’s averaging only 6.60 strikeouts per nine innings (SO/9), but the Rays’ projected lineup is averaging a bottom-five rate of .277 SO/AB. With a recent hard-hit rate allowed of only 24 percent, Peavy is worth taking a flyer on, especially at FanDuel, where he has a 70-percent Bargain Rating.
Hitters
Salvador Perez, KC
This is the umpteenth day in a row that Perez has made an appearance in this article series, but Jordan Zimmerman has now failed to meet salary-based expectations in seven consecutive starts. Over the last 15 days, Perez has averaged a 251-foot batted-ball distance.
Victor Martinez, DET
Miguel Cabrera is a great play today, but his ownership could nearly double that of Martinez, who has quietly recorded an exit velocity three MPH greater than Cabrera’s in the past 15 days.
Marwin Gonzalez, HOU
Gonzalez has a 70-percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings, he’s flowering in his new spot in Houston’s batting order, and he’s slugging .506 against left-handed pitching.
Chase Headley, NYY
Headley has an 84-percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings and a 242-foot recent batted-ball distance. And Ervin Santana has allowed a batted-ball distance 24 feet farther than his yearly average in the last 15 days.
Francisco Lindor, CLE
Lindor’s $4,300 salary at DraftKings isn’t small, and he hasn’t met salary-based expectations in most of his recent games, but it has been awhile since he faced a lefty, and he has a .521 slugging percentage against said handedness. Despite his recent 88-MPH exit velocity, Lindor has still scored 8.9 DraftKings points per game in the last month, good for a top-five average among shortstops today.
Carlos Beltran, NYY
Beltran has averaged 10.7 DraftKings points in the last month, top-10 among outfielders. Although he has a -0.029 Isolated Power Differential against right-handed pitching, he does have a solid .530 slugging percentage. His 11 Pro Trends are tied for the second-most at his position.
Steven Moya, DET
If looking to save salary, look no further than Moya’s minimum price tag at FanDuel. Moya has only a .389 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching, but Chris Young has notably allowed 2.57 home runs per nine innings in the past year. There’s potential to get some bang for your buck.
Good luck!
