The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a nine-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Shane McClanahan ($10,000 DraftKings; $11,500 FanDuel), Tampa Bay Rays (-180) vs. Boston Red Sox
The matchup isn’t great as Boston is 17th in strikeouts and 9th in ISO against left-handed pitching. Matchups schmatchups.
McClanahan is the epitome of studliness. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations 90% of the time this season. In 104 1/3 innings this season, he’s posted a 12.16 K/9, 1.64 BB/9, 2.48 FIP, and 16.5% swinging strike rate. He has the highest K Prediction on the slate and has seven Pro Trends backing him. In 15 starts this season, he’s scored at least 20 DraftKings points in 14 of them, with five over 30.
He will be very popular and is projected to be the highest-rostered pitcher on the slate. Game theory is one of the only few reasons for fading him.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Jon Gray ($7,700 DraftKings; $9,000 on FanDuel), Texas Rangers (-195) vs. Oakland Athletics
Gray left Colorado and has improved across the board. Shocking! His K/9 is 9.91, BB/9 is 2.94, HR/9 is 1.09, and FIP is 3.57. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus 80% of the time this season and has six Pro Trends backing him. Over his last six starts, he’s gone for at least 15 DraftKings points in each, with three above 25.
The matchup is a good one as well. Oakland is 7th in strikeouts and 28th in ISO against right-handed pitching. They are 29th in runs scored and 28th in home runs.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Shohei Ohtani ($9,100 DraftKings; $10,500 on FanDuel), Los Angeles Angels (-122) vs. Houston Astros
The Astros are one of the toughest matchups for right-handed pitchers, as they are 27th in strikeouts and 3rd in ISO. As a result, Ohtani is projected to be rostered in the single-digits today. That’s yummy for GPPs, especially considering he has the third-highest K Prediction and projection.
On the season, Ohtani has produced at least 15 DraftKings points in eight of 10 starts. He’s gone for 26.15, 26.5, and 35.15 DraftKings points over his three most recent games. In late April, he faced the Astros and struck out 12 in six innings for 40.3 DraftKings points.
Low ownership? Check. High strikeout potential? Check.
MLB DFS Hitters
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Model, when generated by median projections belongs to the San Diego Padres:
- Jake Cronenworth (1) ($4,400)
- Manny Machado (2) ($5,500)
- Nomar Mazara (3) ($2,100)
- Luke Voit (4) ($3,800)
- Jorge Alfaro (6) ($3,700)
Coors Field. No further analysis needed.
Fine. The Padres have the highest total on the slate at 6.1 runs, just barely edging out the Yankees mark of 6.0. They get to face Chad Kuhl, who has a 6.49 K/9, 3.40 BB/9, and 4.29 FIP. He has done a decent job keeping the ball in the park, though, with a 1.03 HR/9.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the top DraftKings stacks from THE BAT, when generated by median projections, belongs to the San Diego Padres:
No surprise, as the Labs and THE BAT projections are on the same page with the Padres in Coors. Kuhl has the lowest Rating and projection by a wide margin on the slate. In addition, the Colorado bullpen has the eighth-highest FIP.
The only thing that might be a bit surprising is the somewhat unconventional nature of their top stack. It spans from the No. 1 spot in the lineup through No. 7 while omitting the No. 3 and No. 5 batters. That should help with ownership on what will undoubtedly be the highest-owned team of the day.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Tyler Naquin OF ($4,000 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel), Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees (Luis Severino)
Severino has been good this season, but he’s had some difficulties with lefties. His K/9 dips to just 6.75, compared to an elite 12.56 against righties. His HR/9 is also at 1.75, and his FIP sits at 4.80. Naquin strikes out at an elevated 28.1% against right-handed pitching, but he’s slashing .264/.338/.488 with a .224 ISO. He’s currently projected to be rostered on fewer than 5% of teams in one of the friendliest ballparks for left-handed batters.
Aaron Judge 3B/OF ($6,300 DraftKings; $4,200 FanDuel), New York Yankees vs. Cincinnati Reds (Mike Minor)
There’s not much to say about Judge. He’s awesome. He has 30 home runs on the season with a .282/.360/.404 triple slash and a .326 ISO. He mashes both righties and lefties. Minor is a soft-tossing southpaw with a ridiculous 2.84 HR/9 and 6.79 FIP on the season. Judge is never going to fly under the radar, but he might check in lower than usual due to the price and the presence of the Padres.
Josh H. Smith 3B ($2,900 DraftKings; $2,600 SS FanDuel), Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics (Paul Blackburn)
Smith is the prototypical old-school leadoff hitter. He’s 5’10” and 172 pounds. His strikeout rate is low at 14.9%, while his walk rate is 13.8%. In 87 plate appearances this season, he has one home run and two stolen bases.
He has scored 15 and 18 DraftKings points over the last two games, and he’s driven in seven runs over the last three. The home run and RBIs are likely outliers, but he’s batting leadoff, is sub-$3,000, and is projected to be rostered on fewer than 10% of teams. He’s a nice value option.