The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a seven-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Julio Urias ($9,400) Los Angeles Dodgers (-240) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Urias has taken a bit of a step back this season, with his lowest strikeout rate and highest ERA since 2017. However, his strong track record over the past few seasons is the more relevant data point since he’s still just 26 years old. That means he should still be getting better, with no concerns of age-based skill decline.
There have also been extenuating circumstances, with Urias missing six weeks due to an injury before returning last week against the Royals. That start didn’t go well for him, but it’s quite possible that was due to rust. He’d been performing much better early in the season before being shut down.
Betting markets certainly aren’t worried, with the Pirates having the lowest run total on the slate and the Dodgers the biggest favorites. As an added data point, home plate umpire John Libka has boosted starters’ expected Plus/Minus by three full points, a trend that’s surprisingly predictive.
He leads all pitchers in median and ceiling projection, excluding the Astros/Mariners game, which is still awaiting betting lines.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Kyle Bradish ($7,200) Baltimore Orioles (-130) at New York Yankees
It’s pretty slim pickings in terms of cheaper pitching options today. Only two teams are implied for less than four runs, and the pitchers facing them are priced at $8,700 or more.
Outside of that, Bradish stands out. He’s been solid in his sophomore season, with a 3.58 ERA and 23% strikeout rate, and could presumably continue to improve. The Yankees rank 20th against right-handed pitching on the season but are effectively even worse than that with Aaron Judge out of the lineup.
Bradish is somewhat limited in terms of upside, as his strikeout rate isn’t especially high, and the Yankees rank middle-of-the-pack in that department. However, he provides a reasonable median and somewhat safe floor relative to his salary, making him an excellent cash game option.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Tanner Bibee ($8,700) Cleveland Guardians (-210) vs. Kansas City Royals
There are certainly better pitchers on Thursday’s slate than Bibee. This isn’t to say he’s been bad; his rookie season is off to a solid start, with a 3.46 ERA and strikeout rate in the mid-20s. What Bibee has that those other pitchers don’t, though, is an excellent matchup.
The Royals are the worst offense in baseball against righties, and Pablo Lopez racked up 12 strikeouts in a shutout victory against the Royals on Wednesday. While we probably can’t expect that level of performance from Bibee, even half of that would make him the best pts/sal play on the slate.
Vegas tells the story here, with the Guardians as more than a two-to-one favorite despite their own offensive ineptitude. Kansas City’s 3.8-run implied total is also the second lowest on the slate.
He currently trails only Urias in median and ceiling projection in the FantasyLabs Models. Bibee also stands out in our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Texas Rangers:
The Rangers cost a pretty penny today, but they could be well worth it. Their 5.5-run implied total is tied for the best on the slate, and they’re the only road team at five or more. That’s a bonus since visiting teams get a guaranteed ninth inning at the plate.
They’ve been the number-three offense against righties this season as they take on the Red Sox Kutter Crawford ($6,400). Crawford has been solid this season but certainly isn’t the type of pitcher we’d avoid stacking against with a 3.92 ERA and 4.06 xFIP.
We also have solid hitting conditions, with an 81 Park Factor for righties and 75 for lefties, both of which lead the slate. The Weather Rating of 62 trails only the game in Arizona, which will likely have a closed roof and thus less favorable conditions.
If the price tags are a bit too much, we can also use the PlateIQ tool to discover some cheaper Rangers with solid splits against righties:
Number nine hitter Leody Taveras ($3,400) stands out, with the second-best wOBA on the team. His ninth spot in the Rangers lineup also sets up nicely for wrap-around stacks, preserving their correlation.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jarren Duran OF ($3,200 DraftKings; $2,900 FanDuel) Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers (Nathan Eovaldi)
We already talked about the solid hitting conditions in this game, meaning we shouldn’t forget about the Red Sox. They have a solid 4.8-run implied total against their former teammate, Rangers righty Nathan Eovaldi ($10,000).
While Eovaldi is a tough matchup, Duran has solid numbers against right-handed pitching. He’s hit them at a .319 this clip this season, which explains his leadoff spot in the lineup. Of course, that’s the real selling point today. Duran is too cheap for hitting at the top of the order for a team with the Bosox total.
Geraldo Perdomo 2B/SS ($4,000 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets (Carlos Carrasco)
Perdomo is having a bit of a sophomore breakout in 2023. In his official rookie season last year, he hit .195 with five homers and nine steals in 148 games. Through 71 contests this season, he’s already matched his home run and steal totals from last year while hitting .278.
While those aren’t exactly superstar numbers, they’re excellent for his salary on FanDuel today. He has an 81% Bargain Rating, making him a massive value at the top of the Arizona lineup.
Max Muncy 3B ($5,100 DraftKings; $3,700 FanDuel) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Johan Oviedo)
Muncy has been a boom-or-bust option so far this season for the Dodgers, hitting just .194 with a 28% strikeout rate. However, he’s already belting 19 home runs, which ties him for 13th in the majors. He’s taking on the Pirates and Johan Oviedo ($6,200), a pitch-to-contact type pitcher with a sub-20 % strikeout rate.
That’s the type of matchup we want when targeting free-swinging sluggers like Muncy. His relatively low projected ownership makes him a strong GPP play, especially on FanDuel, where he holds a solid 83% Bargain Rating.
