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MLB DFS Model Picks (Wednesday, Apr. 20): Kyle Garlick is a Bargain on DraftKings

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for Wednesday’s seven-game slate.

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Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain

Kyle Garlick ($2,000): Outfielder, Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins’ season isn’t off to the start they were hoping for, going 4-7 through their first 11 games of the season. Still, that doesn’t diminish some of the solid performances that we’ve seen from several players to start the season. Among those is Kyle Garlick, who has shown some pop while being deployed in the clean-up role for the Twinkies.

Granted, this is an extremely small sample size, but the outfielder is making solid contact every time he goes to the plate, recording a hard-hit percentage of 100% through seven at-bats. That’s resulted in a .682 expected slugging percentage, above his actual mark of .571. Garlick has been good in limited plate appearances, and we’re expecting him to be better against Daniel Lynch tonight.

Lynch was roughed up in his first appearance of the season, getting knocked around to the tune of six runs in 5.0 innings, on nine hits and a walk. The young righty wasn’t fooling batters with any of his stuff, giving up a 64.7% hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity of 95.1.

Garlick could dent a few balls tonight and is a bargain worth including on your DK rosters.


MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain

Daulton Varsho ($2,600): Outfielder/Catcher, Arizona Diamondbacks

If you haven’t been paying attention to Arizona Diamondbacks youngster Daulton Varsho, then consider this your fair warning. Varsho has flashed power to start the season and is due for a breakout performance. Based on our projections, we’re anticipating that comes tonight against the Washington Nationals.

The D-Backs catcher/outfielder has home runs in two of his past five games, elevating his season-long expected slugging percentage to a respectable .490, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Varsho has other underlying metrics supporting his elite hitter status. Through 35 at-bats, the 25-year-old has a hard-hit rate of 52.4%, putting him in the 86th percentile, and a barrel rate of 14.3%, putting him in the 81st percentile.

Things haven’t come together for Varsho yet this season, as he’s slugging below expected at just .343. Nevertheless, he projects as a bargain option on tonight’s slate at FanDuel and could break out against the Nats.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Carlos Rodon ($10,200 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel) vs. New York Mets

San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Carlos Rodon isn’t messing around to start the season. Through two starts, the veteran southpaw leads the league in several notable categories, including fielding independent pitching, hits per nine innings, and strikeouts per nine innings. Those metrics could look even better after a stop at pitcher-friendly Citi Field against the New York Mets.

Punch-outs are a hugely important metric for a pitcher’s fantasy value, and Rodon is doing it better than anybody else right now. Through 12.0 innings. Rodon has sat down 21 batters for a 15.8 K/9 rate for a 46.7% strikeout rate. The lefty is keeping hitters off-balance, posting elite whiff and chase rates, placing him in the 91st and 87th percentiles.

Furthering Rodon’s cause is the Mets inability to hit lefties. New York ranks 15th in the MLB with a .659 on-base plus slugging percentage against southpaws, striking out 24.7% of the time.

Rodon projects as the premier pitching option on tonight’s slate with one of the highest fantasy ceilings for a pitcher or position player.


Hitter

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5,800 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel) vs. Boston Red Sox

We’ve seen some pretty impressive offensive performances at Fenway Park to start the season, and we’re projecting Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to continue that trend against Nick Pivetta and the Boston Red Sox on Wednesday.

Vlad Jr. is coming off a two-hit performance against the Red Sox last night, elevating his slugging percentage to .707 on the season. There’s still room to grow for the slugger, who has an elite .734 expected slugging percentage, ranking in the top 3% of MLB hitters.

Five of Guerrero Jr.’s 13 hits have been home runs, and that could climb even higher after he’s done with Pivetta. The Sox righty has been atrocious to start the season, posting a 70.8% hard-hit percentage, .929 expected slugging percentage, and average exit velocity of 98.7 miles per hour, ranking in the bottom 1% of pitchers.

Pivetta is combustible, and Vlad Jr. is bringing the heat. Expect some fireworks from the Toronto Blue Jays slugger.

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Your deposit will be fully matched

New users only

Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected points is the Tampa Bay Rays. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

The Rays put up a six-spot on the Chicago Cubs last night and based on our projections; things could get even more out of hand tonight against Marcus Stroman. Stroman has lasted just 9.0 innings through two starts, ranking in the bottom half of the league in nearly every advanced metric category.

Those issues could be compounded by the top of the Rays lineup that is littered with left-handed batters. Brandon Lowe and Ji-Man Choi are projected as the 1 and 4 hitters, respectively, and will have an advantage against right-handed throwing Stroman. Similarly, switch-hitting Wander Franco has 12 hits, four doubles, and two runs batted vs. righties this season.

Randy Arozarena and Yandy Diaz fill out the 3 and 5 spots in the batting order, giving the Rays a gauntlet of power hitters that can do some damage against Stroman.

With the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field, the Rays’ top-five hitters could chase Stroman early, turning things over to a bullpen that pitched 11.0 innings through the first two games of the series. Giving Rays hitters yet another advantage over the Cubs’ familiar bullpen arms.

Note: Be sure to monitor the weather for this game leading up to lock. 

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for Wednesday’s seven-game slate.

Start Your PRO Trial Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain

Kyle Garlick ($2,000): Outfielder, Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins’ season isn’t off to the start they were hoping for, going 4-7 through their first 11 games of the season. Still, that doesn’t diminish some of the solid performances that we’ve seen from several players to start the season. Among those is Kyle Garlick, who has shown some pop while being deployed in the clean-up role for the Twinkies.

Granted, this is an extremely small sample size, but the outfielder is making solid contact every time he goes to the plate, recording a hard-hit percentage of 100% through seven at-bats. That’s resulted in a .682 expected slugging percentage, above his actual mark of .571. Garlick has been good in limited plate appearances, and we’re expecting him to be better against Daniel Lynch tonight.

Lynch was roughed up in his first appearance of the season, getting knocked around to the tune of six runs in 5.0 innings, on nine hits and a walk. The young righty wasn’t fooling batters with any of his stuff, giving up a 64.7% hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity of 95.1.

Garlick could dent a few balls tonight and is a bargain worth including on your DK rosters.


MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain

Daulton Varsho ($2,600): Outfielder/Catcher, Arizona Diamondbacks

If you haven’t been paying attention to Arizona Diamondbacks youngster Daulton Varsho, then consider this your fair warning. Varsho has flashed power to start the season and is due for a breakout performance. Based on our projections, we’re anticipating that comes tonight against the Washington Nationals.

The D-Backs catcher/outfielder has home runs in two of his past five games, elevating his season-long expected slugging percentage to a respectable .490, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Varsho has other underlying metrics supporting his elite hitter status. Through 35 at-bats, the 25-year-old has a hard-hit rate of 52.4%, putting him in the 86th percentile, and a barrel rate of 14.3%, putting him in the 81st percentile.

Things haven’t come together for Varsho yet this season, as he’s slugging below expected at just .343. Nevertheless, he projects as a bargain option on tonight’s slate at FanDuel and could break out against the Nats.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Carlos Rodon ($10,200 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel) vs. New York Mets

San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Carlos Rodon isn’t messing around to start the season. Through two starts, the veteran southpaw leads the league in several notable categories, including fielding independent pitching, hits per nine innings, and strikeouts per nine innings. Those metrics could look even better after a stop at pitcher-friendly Citi Field against the New York Mets.

Punch-outs are a hugely important metric for a pitcher’s fantasy value, and Rodon is doing it better than anybody else right now. Through 12.0 innings. Rodon has sat down 21 batters for a 15.8 K/9 rate for a 46.7% strikeout rate. The lefty is keeping hitters off-balance, posting elite whiff and chase rates, placing him in the 91st and 87th percentiles.

Furthering Rodon’s cause is the Mets inability to hit lefties. New York ranks 15th in the MLB with a .659 on-base plus slugging percentage against southpaws, striking out 24.7% of the time.

Rodon projects as the premier pitching option on tonight’s slate with one of the highest fantasy ceilings for a pitcher or position player.


Hitter

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5,800 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel) vs. Boston Red Sox

We’ve seen some pretty impressive offensive performances at Fenway Park to start the season, and we’re projecting Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to continue that trend against Nick Pivetta and the Boston Red Sox on Wednesday.

Vlad Jr. is coming off a two-hit performance against the Red Sox last night, elevating his slugging percentage to .707 on the season. There’s still room to grow for the slugger, who has an elite .734 expected slugging percentage, ranking in the top 3% of MLB hitters.

Five of Guerrero Jr.’s 13 hits have been home runs, and that could climb even higher after he’s done with Pivetta. The Sox righty has been atrocious to start the season, posting a 70.8% hard-hit percentage, .929 expected slugging percentage, and average exit velocity of 98.7 miles per hour, ranking in the bottom 1% of pitchers.

Pivetta is combustible, and Vlad Jr. is bringing the heat. Expect some fireworks from the Toronto Blue Jays slugger.

Get Your First Deposit Matched Up to $100!

Sign up and deposit up to $100

Your deposit will be fully matched

New users only

Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected points is the Tampa Bay Rays. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

The Rays put up a six-spot on the Chicago Cubs last night and based on our projections; things could get even more out of hand tonight against Marcus Stroman. Stroman has lasted just 9.0 innings through two starts, ranking in the bottom half of the league in nearly every advanced metric category.

Those issues could be compounded by the top of the Rays lineup that is littered with left-handed batters. Brandon Lowe and Ji-Man Choi are projected as the 1 and 4 hitters, respectively, and will have an advantage against right-handed throwing Stroman. Similarly, switch-hitting Wander Franco has 12 hits, four doubles, and two runs batted vs. righties this season.

Randy Arozarena and Yandy Diaz fill out the 3 and 5 spots in the batting order, giving the Rays a gauntlet of power hitters that can do some damage against Stroman.

With the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field, the Rays’ top-five hitters could chase Stroman early, turning things over to a bullpen that pitched 11.0 innings through the first two games of the series. Giving Rays hitters yet another advantage over the Cubs’ familiar bullpen arms.

Note: Be sure to monitor the weather for this game leading up to lock.