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MLB DFS: Model Picks, Value Plays, and Top Stack on June 20

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models have numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.

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Real-time DFS models

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Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain

Nomar Mazara ($2,000): Outfielder, San Diego Padres

Looking for a bottom-tier lottery ticket for the back end of your lineup? Mazara certainly fits the bill.

Mazara has a +2.40 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, including three double-digit DraftKings performances in his last six.

After being called back up to the majors in place of Robinson Cano, the 27-year-old Mazara has impressed, batting .327 with a .357 wOBA in 15 games. His price will begin to climb quickly if he keeps up this pace.


MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain

Randy Arozarena ($3,300): Outfielder, Tampa Bay Rays

Arozarena is on a 1-for-17 hitting slump over his last five games, and his salary has dipped -$600 in that span.

Prior to that stretch, Arozarena had his best stretch of the season from June 1-12. He has seven 18+ FanDuel point totals in 11 games.

Tonight’s matchup with Gerrit Cole will likely scare off many fantasy players, making him a potential low-ownership winner for tournament lineups.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Yu Darvish ($8,100 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

The slate has some top-end options in Gerrit Cole, Shane McClanahan, and Corbin Burnes. In the second price tier, Darvish provides some upside potential.

After a subpar 2021, Darvish has rebounded with a 6-3 record and 3.35 ERA this season. His strikeouts are down, but he’s still managed a +0.26 Plus/Minus on the season as his salary continues to dip.

In his last two starts, Darvish has allowed just seven hits and one run in 15 innings, scoring over 28 DraftKings points in each outing.


Hitter

Shohei Ohtani ($5,900 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals

Ohtani has a significant price disparity between DraftKings and FanDuel. He has the fourth-highest DraftKings salary and 16th-highest FanDuel salary, with the highest projected ceiling on both sites.

When only in the lineup as a hitter, Ohtani has just one game scoring over 10.0 DraftKings points since May 31 and hasn’t reached base in his last three games. That said, we know the ceiling is massive for the Angels superstar and reigning American League MVP.

His FanDuel salary is now at the lowest point of the season, so this may be an excellent opportunity to jump back on the Ohtani train.

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Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected points in our stacking tool belongs to the Blue Jays. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

Note: There is precipitation projected in the forecast for this game. Be sure to monitor the status of this game leading up to lock.

This Blue Jays stack features three of the highest-rated players on tonight’s slate as they travel to Chicago to face White Sox right-hander Lance Lynn.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headlines this potent Blue Jays stack. Guerrero Jr. is in the top 10% of hitters in wOBA and average exit velocity, according to Baseball Savant. He is a boom-or-bust option, but he’s averaged a +4.14 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.

On the other hand, Bo Bichette has struggled at the plate over the last 10 days. The 24-year-old hasn’t posted a double-digit DraftKings result since June 10 and has a -2.12 Plus/Minus over that span. Still, he’s one of the most talented hitters in this lineup and racked up 29 homers and 25 steals last year.

George Springer rounds out the big three. He is batting .230 in June but is near his career averages for his season-long stats. Springer will try to make it back-to-back home run performances as he notched his 13th of the season last night.

Outfielder Teoscar Hernandez and third baseman Matt Chapman round out the stack. Hernandez is up trending recently with a +2.00 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. Chapman is an awesome bargain with the second-highest projection and 14th-highest salary at the position.

Lynn will make his second start of the season tonight against the Blue Jays. He gave up 10 hits and three earned runs in 4.1 innings against the Tigers in his first appearance on June 13.

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models have numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.

Start Your PRO Trial Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain

Nomar Mazara ($2,000): Outfielder, San Diego Padres

Looking for a bottom-tier lottery ticket for the back end of your lineup? Mazara certainly fits the bill.

Mazara has a +2.40 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, including three double-digit DraftKings performances in his last six.

After being called back up to the majors in place of Robinson Cano, the 27-year-old Mazara has impressed, batting .327 with a .357 wOBA in 15 games. His price will begin to climb quickly if he keeps up this pace.


MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain

Randy Arozarena ($3,300): Outfielder, Tampa Bay Rays

Arozarena is on a 1-for-17 hitting slump over his last five games, and his salary has dipped -$600 in that span.

Prior to that stretch, Arozarena had his best stretch of the season from June 1-12. He has seven 18+ FanDuel point totals in 11 games.

Tonight’s matchup with Gerrit Cole will likely scare off many fantasy players, making him a potential low-ownership winner for tournament lineups.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Yu Darvish ($8,100 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

The slate has some top-end options in Gerrit Cole, Shane McClanahan, and Corbin Burnes. In the second price tier, Darvish provides some upside potential.

After a subpar 2021, Darvish has rebounded with a 6-3 record and 3.35 ERA this season. His strikeouts are down, but he’s still managed a +0.26 Plus/Minus on the season as his salary continues to dip.

In his last two starts, Darvish has allowed just seven hits and one run in 15 innings, scoring over 28 DraftKings points in each outing.


Hitter

Shohei Ohtani ($5,900 DraftKings, $3,600 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals

Ohtani has a significant price disparity between DraftKings and FanDuel. He has the fourth-highest DraftKings salary and 16th-highest FanDuel salary, with the highest projected ceiling on both sites.

When only in the lineup as a hitter, Ohtani has just one game scoring over 10.0 DraftKings points since May 31 and hasn’t reached base in his last three games. That said, we know the ceiling is massive for the Angels superstar and reigning American League MVP.

His FanDuel salary is now at the lowest point of the season, so this may be an excellent opportunity to jump back on the Ohtani train.

Get Your First Deposit Matched Up to $100!

Sign up and deposit up to $100

Your deposit will be fully matched

New users only

Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected points in our stacking tool belongs to the Blue Jays. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.

Note: There is precipitation projected in the forecast for this game. Be sure to monitor the status of this game leading up to lock.

This Blue Jays stack features three of the highest-rated players on tonight’s slate as they travel to Chicago to face White Sox right-hander Lance Lynn.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headlines this potent Blue Jays stack. Guerrero Jr. is in the top 10% of hitters in wOBA and average exit velocity, according to Baseball Savant. He is a boom-or-bust option, but he’s averaged a +4.14 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.

On the other hand, Bo Bichette has struggled at the plate over the last 10 days. The 24-year-old hasn’t posted a double-digit DraftKings result since June 10 and has a -2.12 Plus/Minus over that span. Still, he’s one of the most talented hitters in this lineup and racked up 29 homers and 25 steals last year.

George Springer rounds out the big three. He is batting .230 in June but is near his career averages for his season-long stats. Springer will try to make it back-to-back home run performances as he notched his 13th of the season last night.

Outfielder Teoscar Hernandez and third baseman Matt Chapman round out the stack. Hernandez is up trending recently with a +2.00 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. Chapman is an awesome bargain with the second-highest projection and 14th-highest salary at the position.

Lynn will make his second start of the season tonight against the Blue Jays. He gave up 10 hits and three earned runs in 4.1 innings against the Tigers in his first appearance on June 13.