The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain
Travis d’Arnaud ($2,000): Catcher, Atlanta Braves
Five of the seven batters when we rank by Bargain Rating, are from the Atlanta Braves. They have a tough matchup against Walker Buehler and the Los Angeles Dodgers, but they have only two players priced above $3,000 on DraftKings tonight. Picking one player from the Braves was difficult, but the upside of getting to a minimum-priced catcher with Travis d’Arnaud is always intriguing.
He is one of two Braves players who has a 99% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. d’Arnaud is projected to bat fifth on our lineups page. He is a streaky hitter as d’Arnaud has put up three goose eggs and three games with 14 or more DraftKings points in his eight games played. Buehler has been decent but has allowed two earned runs in each of his starts this season.
Paying down with d’Arnaud on DraftKings will allow a lineup with a more expensive stack and give you a contrarian pice in your lineup.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain
Trevor Story ($3,000): Second Baseman/Short Stop, Boston Red Sox
Not only does Trevor Story have a 99% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, but he also has a very high median and ceiling projection. His salary continues to fall, but he does have at least one hit in each of his last five games. He only has one extra-base hit this season, but we know the upside is there. Playing in Colorado, Story had a home run every 21 at-bats in each of his last two seasons. He just has had a slow start with Boston.
The Red Sox have a 5.2 implied run total against the Blue Jays and pitcher Yusei Kikuchi who really struggled in his first outing. Kikuchi allowed two earned runs as he only got through 3.1 innings pitched after throwing 84 pitches. After a rough first start, this is not the matchup Kikuchi wanted to see, as the Red Sox have a lot of upside in their lineup. Prioritize Story on FanDuel with his very cheap price tag.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Corbin Burnes ($10,500 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The highest ceiling pitcher on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight is 2021 NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes, who is the second-highest-priced player on both sites. This will be his third start of the season, as the previous two showed a mixed bag of results. Burnes allowed three runs in five innings in his first outing and then only allowed three hits while striking out eight batters in seven innings in his last outing.
Despite not having many big names, this Pirates lineup ranks fifth in batting average but only 16th in slugging percentage. They are a little below average in runs scored and rank tied for 26th in home runs as an offense. They are pesky but don’t pose much of a threat, especially against a dominant pitcher like Burnes.
The Pirates are only implied for 2.9 runs, which is the lowest on the slate. Burnes will likely carry the most ownership at the pitcher position tonight as the Brewers are by far the biggest favorite on the board.
Christian Yelich ($4,800 DraftKings, $2,900 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
There are many Philadelphia Phillies at the top of our projections, but mixed in between them is Christian Yelich, who is coming off his first home run of the season last night. Due to his relatively slow start, Yelich has a solid price tag, especially on FanDuel, where he has a 94% Bargain Rating. In 10 games played this season, Yelich is batting .242 with six RBI, while four of those came last night.
Yelich and the Brewers have a healthy 4.8 implied run total as they face JT Brubaker on the mound. Brubaker has allowed eight earned runs this season in only 7.1 innings pitched. He has only allowed one home run thus far but has a 6.48 xFIP. Historically Brubaker has struggled against left-handed batters, while Yelich is averaging a 40.7% Hard Hit rate with a .378 wOBA against right-handed pitchers.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using projected ceiling in our stacking tool comes from the Philadelphia Phillies. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
The Philadelphia Phillies have lost six of their last seven games, but they still rank just outside the top 10 in batting average and slugging percentage this season.
It is impossible to dive into our Tournament Model and not see these five Phillies players everywhere. They make out the top five in projection and ceiling according to THE BAT.
The Phillies only scored one run last night in Coors Field but will get a second crack at it again tonight. They have a 6.2 implied run total, which is the highest on the slate.
Paying this high of a salary for a catcher can be risky, but J.T. Realmuto provides such a high projection for a position that normally produces dud performances. Realmuto has had a higher than .330 wOBA for seven-straight seasons. He is arguably the best hitting catcher in the league.
Rhys Hoskins has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to THE BAT. He has had a relatively slow start, but he has a .277 ISO, .518 slugging percentage, and a 40.4% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitchers in his career. Great matchup for Hoskins.
Bryce Harper is next in the batting order and in Projected Plus/Minus to Hoskins. He has the highest ceiling on the slate. Harper posted back-to-back games with 24 DraftKings points before posting a dud in their last game. A lefty-lefty matchup may be intimidating to pay this price, but Harper has held his own.
Nick Castellanos is another Phillies player projected for over 20% ownership as he leads the Phillies in hits with 12 and batting, averaging with .293. This is his first season with the Phillies as he is coming off a career-high 34 home runs, 100 RBI, and .309 batting average with the Reds.
Kyle Schwarber won’t be nearly as popular as the rest of this stack as he is off to a very slow start. This is also Schwarber’s first season with the Phillies, but he is only batting .125 with a 29.5% strikeout percentage this season. He is much worst against left-handed pitchers but still has power upside.
Left-hander Kyle Freeland is off to a very poor start in his sixth season with the Colorado Rockies. He is 0-2 with five earned runs in both starts at home with only seven combined strikeouts. Freeland will have his work cut out for him against this Phillies lineup, especially in Coors Field. Freeland has a 4.39 ERA and allows a 1.37 HR/9 in his career playing at home. The Phillies are expensive but worth it.