The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Zack Short ($2,100): Third Baseman, Atlanta Braves
A long-time minor leaguer, Zack Short finally earned extended major league at-bats in 2023 with 112 games played for Detroit. He’s already on his third team this season and now is seeing a temporary opportunity for playing time with Atlanta.
In the first two games of their series against the Cubs, Short finished 1-3 in each game and added an RBI on Monday. At his salary, the 7.0 and 11.0 DraftKings point totals are well into the positive Plus/Minus range. Short is a career .172/.269/.301 hitter with a .272 xwOBA.
The model likes Short as an interesting low-end bargain dart throw against Cubs right-hander Javier Assad. Assad has been excellent with a 3-0 record and 1.70 ERA through eight starts.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Framber Valdez ($8,800) vs. Oakland Athletics
The stat lines for Framber Valdez are not gaudy, but he continues to be an effective big league starter for the Astros. Through five starts, he sits at 2-1 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.
Valdez reached the 200 strikeout mark for the first time in his career last season, but his punch out rate has dropped from 24.8% in 2023 to 18.9% in 2024. His .280 xBA and .326 xwOBA are also well above his career averages.
Using PlateIQ, the projected Athletics lineup has a .216 ISO and .328 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. The model likes their drastically low home run projection and the 64.4 ground ball rate for Valdez to limit the run potential for Oakland tonight.
Hitter
Kyle Tucker ($6,200) vs. Oakland Athletics
Kyle Tucker continues to light up opposing pitchers and land in the top tier of ceiling projections on the slate. The Astros outfielder is batting .278/.401/.596 on the season with 13 home runs and 29 RBI.
Over his last 10 games, Tucker boasts a +2.72 average Plus/Minus and exceeded his projected point total at a 70% clip. Despite his salary increasing drastically throughout the season, he has exceeded his projected point total 58% of the time in the Astros’ first 41 games. Tucker boosts his floor with an excellent 16.9% walk rate and uses that vision to amass an impressive .593 xSLG and .430 xwOBA.
The Astros have a great matchup against Triple-A call-up Aaron Brooks. The 34-year-old right-hander has 28 career starts in parts of five major league seasons. His career record is 9-13 with a 6.55 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Pablo Lopez ($9,800) vs. New York Yankees
In his second season with the Twins, Pablo Lopez has earned top billing for fantasy owners with his 4-2 record and 3.98 ERA. The 28-year-old righty touts an impressive 31.6 K% and .255 xwOBA and sits in the top 10 in the American League with 55 strikeouts and a 0.98 WHIP.
Lopez comes in with three straight positive Plus/Minus starts with DraftKings point totals over 20 in each game. He notched his first 10-strikeout game in his last start, bringing him to 26 total in the three-game span.
The Yankees’ power potential does raise the home run projection against Lopez, who has a tendency to give up the long ball. Their projected lineup has a .190 ISO and .342 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitter
Corey Seager ($5,400) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Expect strong ownership rates on the Rangers’ hitters tonight with a high implied run total on a short mid-week main slate. Corey Seager may not be having a career year to this point in 2024, but the model likes his odds to produce tonight against Cleveland.
Seager is batting .236/.316/.350 on this season with five home runs and 16 RBI through 40 games. Without adding any extra value on the base paths, Seager needs to improve on his .496 xSLG and .360 xwOBA to provide more consistent fantasy production. With three home runs in his last eight games, things may be looking up.
The Rangers take on Cleveland right-hander Carlos Carrasco with his 2-3 record and 5.36 ERA. Carrasco has allowed 17 runs over his last four starts.
Matt Carpenter ($3,000) at Los Angeles Angels
A rare $3,000 salary player cracks the upper tier of model projections today. Cardinals veteran Matt Carpenter rejoined St. Louis on May 11 and has at least one hit in each of the past three games.
In limited action, Carpenter is batting a respectable .308/.400/.385 through 23 at-bats in 2024. He has yet to hit a ball out of the ballpark, but he still has managed a positive Plus/Minus on the season.
The ceiling is certainly capped with five home runs in 263 plate appearances over the last two seasons, but he could still provide value for the price with a plus matchup tonight. The Angels send Griffin Canning to the mound with a 1-4 record and 5.75 ERA through eight starts. Carpenter is an interesting contrarian pick.
