The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Lane Thomas ($2,500): Outfielder, Washington Nationals
Thomas has either found another gear at the plate in 2023 or is a little out in front of his skis.
In his second full season, Thomas is batting .280, nearly 40 points higher than his career average. With three home runs and 17 RBI, his power numbers have stayed flat. His .285 xwOBA equals his production last season when he hit just .241 at the plate.
He has seven positive Plus/Minus games out of his last nine, including five double-digit point totals. All three of his home runs this season have come in the month of May.
Thomas faces the Giants’ Logan Webb, who is 2-5 with a 3.80 ERA. The model likes him to stay hot as a bargain option on tonight’s slate.
Clarke Schmidt ($6,000): Pitcher, New York Yankees
It has been a rough start to the 2023 season for Schmidt and the New York Yankees. After a 5-5 record last season in his first major league campaign, Schmidt is 0-3 with a 5.83 ERA in seven starts.
The long ball has hurt Schmidt thus far. He has allowed seven home runs in 29.1 innings this season and is giving up a 51.6 hard hit %, near the bottom of the ranks for major league starters. Still, Schmidt has produced three positive Plus/Minus games at the low end of the DraftKings salary chart.
Despite Schmidt’s struggles, the Oakland Athletics still have one of the lowest implied run totals on the slate. Both the A’s and Yankees are hitting .231 as a team.
This could be a low-scoring affair at Yankee Stadium.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Shohei Ohtani ($11,600 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel) vs. Houston Astros
What can this guy not do?
Ohtani is again taking Major League Baseball by storm this season as both an MVP-caliber pitcher and hitter. On the mound, he leads the American League with 59 strikeouts, 13.6 SO/9, and 3.7 H/9.
He remains undefeated at 4-0 with a 2.54 ERA at 38.6 K% in 39 innings. The lone dark spot on his resume is his league-leading seven wild pitches and hit batsmen on the year.
Of course, his potential production comes at a crazy price tag. He showed his ceiling potential on April 21 with 11 strikeouts at 39.35 DraftKings points. The models have him as both the highest ceiling and highest projected points tonight against the Astros.
Hitter
Freddie Freeman ($4,800 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel) at Milwaukee Brewers
The 33-year-old perennial All-Star is batting .294 with five home runs and 14 RBI on the season. Though down slightly from his recent years, Freeman is still in the top 10% of hitters with a .546 xSLG and .402 xwOBA.
In the 13 games from April 22 to May 3, Freeman posted 11 positive Plus/Minus games. Since May 3, he has had four straight negative Plus/Minus results with three total hits in 17 at-bats and zero RBI. The mini-slump has improved his salary value as it shrunk to $4,800 from $5,800 at the start of the season.
Take advantage of the value pricing for Freeman as the Dodgers face Brewers left-hander Eric Lauer. Lauer is 3-3 with a 4.40 ERA in six starts.
He has allowed at least one home run in all but one start this season.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Logan Webb ($9,500 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel) vs. Washington Nationals
Webb’s salary has risen throughout the season from $7,600 to $9,500 on DraftKings, despite a 2-5 record. His 3.80 ERA and .210 wOBA allowed are both slightly above his career averages.
The record has not correlated to bad fantasy performances. In his seven starts, Webb has six positive Plus/Minus DraftKings performances, including three straight 20+ point totals in his last three outings.
Part of his success is avoiding free base runners. He has dropped his walk rate down to 3.9 BB/9 in 2023.
Sportsbooks have high expectations for Webb tonight, as the Nationals have the lowest implied run total on the slate.
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Hitters
Jazz Chisholm Jr. ($5,500 DraftKings, $2,900 FanDuel) at Arizona Diamondbacks
Chisholm Jr. has been a streaky performer over the last month. He had a five-game stretch from April 25-29 with a minimum of 14 DraftKings points in each game. On the other hand, he has batted .125 with three hits and nine strikeouts in his last seven outings.
Overall, Chisholm Jr. is hitting .223 with five home runs and 11 stolen bases on the season.
The model likes him to take advantage of a plus matchup in Arizona against right-hander Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt is making his second career major league start after a dreadful debut where he allowed seven runs and four home runs against Texas on May 3.
Tim Anderson ($5,100 DraftKings, $3,100 FanDuel) at Kansas City Royals
Anderson returned to the lineup on May 2 after spending more than two weeks on the injured list due to a knee sprain. Since returning, he is batting .207 with .488 OPS in seven games.
A career .287 hitter, the models expect Anderson to get back toward his regular production rates at the plate. The two-time All Star has tailed off the last two seasons in home run potential but scores fantasy points in a variety of ways, including speed on the base paths.
He showed his ceiling potential on April 7 in Pittsburgh with 34 DraftKings points without a long bomb on the strength of four total hits, two doubles, and two stolen bases.
