Our Blog

  1. Home
  2. Our Blog
  3. MLB DFS: Model Picks and Value Plays for July 7
MLB

MLB DFS: Model Picks and Value Plays for July 7

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials
Become a PRO Member

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Jordan Diaz ($2,100): Second Baseman, Oakland Athletics

The Athletics have a 97 Team Value Rating with eight of their nine hitters in DraftKings with a salary below $3,000. They are implied for 4.3 runs, while leadoff hitter Jordan Diaz has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate. Diaz has recorded at least two hits in three of his last four games as his hard-hit rate has climbed to 47.8% with five home runs and a .186 ISO.

Brennan Bernardino will serve as the opener for the Red Sox, with Brandon Walter as the long reliever. Both pitchers have a lack of big league experience, and since they are both southpaws, Diaz will have the platoon advantage. Diaz does not need a lot of DraftKings points to return value at $2,100 with a 71% Bargain Rating and fills a difficult second base position.

Kyle Farmer ($2,400): Second Baseman/Third Baseman, Minnesota Twins

The Twins are another great source of value on this 12-game slate, as they are implied for 4.8 runs. Kyle Farmer is the player to target as he has a slate-high eight Pro Trends and a 94% Bargain Rating. Farmer is projected to bat clean-up in the Twins lineup with second baseman and third baseman DraftKings eligibility, making him easy to fit into all lineup builds.

Orioles left-hander Cole Irvin will take the mound in search of just his second win of the season. Irvin has allowed a 6.32 ERA and a career-high 14.4% barrel percentage. In his five seasons in the majors, Irvin hasn’t had above a 20% strikeout rate. He is also a completely different pitcher on the road, with a 9.64 ERA compared to his 4.91 ERA when pitching at home.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Zac Gallen ($9,600 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Leading all pitchers in projected ownership, Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen is a -200 favorite against the Pirates who are tied for the lowest implied run total on the slate at 3.6 tonight. Despite suffering his third loss of the season in his last outing, Gallen recorded 12 strikeouts and scored 28.2 DraftKings points. He has never had a season below a 26.5% strikeout rate.

The Pirates are one of the least feared hitting teams, as they have only hit 80 home runs this season, which is tied for the fifth-lowest mark in the league. Capturing strikeouts has been hit or miss for Gallen during his last few outings, but the ceiling is there for a great outing against this weak-hitting lineup. A victory would give Gallen a tie for the league lead in wins.

Hitter

Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,400 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) vs. New York Mets

Fernando Tatis Jr. has the highest ceiling in both our in-house and THE BAT X projections. He has recorded two or more hits and 16+ DraftKings points in four of his last five games. Over that time, Tatis Jr. has four extra base hits with seven RBIs and six runs. The best part is he is projected for less than 5% ownership making him a great contrarian pay-up option.

After an 18-4 record with the Astros, veteran right-hander Justin Verlander will take the mound for the Mets, looking to get back to a .500 record. Verlander has a 3.66 ERA, which is the highest he has had since his 2014 season with the Tigers. Given his age and how much his velocity is down, Tatis Jr. should have no troubles at the plate tonight. Regardless of the pitch type or pitcher handedness, Tatis Jr. has been the best hitter for the Padres over the last 30 days (via PlateIQ):

More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.

Pitcher

Andrew Abbott ($9,900 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel) at Milwaukee Brewers

Despite being a road underdog and the most expensive pitcher on the slate, Reds rookie Andrew Abbott is worth the price tag. Through six starts, he has a 4-0 record with a 1.21 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP. Pair that with a near 30% strikeout rate and a matchup against the Brewers, who have the third-highest strikeout rate in the league; you get a pitcher with a huge upside.

Abbott is coming off a career-high 12 strikeouts against the Padres. He has thrown over 100 pitches in four of his six starts and is projected for the second-most strikeouts among all pitchers. Averaging over 25 DraftKings points per game, Abbott is a contrarian pay-up option due to his lower ownership. There is a ton of strikeout upside in this matchup for Abbott tonight.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Vivid Picks has to offer with promo code LABS for a $200 deposit match.

Hitters

Rafael Devers ($4,900 DraftKings, $3,100 FanDuel) vs. Oakland Athletics

The Red Sox are the most popular stack on this slate, as they have six of the top 12 batters in projected ownership on DraftKings. Their best hitter Rafael Devers has been on fire recently with a .252 ISO and a .395 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the last 30 days. The third baseman position is loaded, but Devers is the best option due to the easy matchup.

Athletics rookie right-hander Luis Medina will make just his ninth start of the season. He has 11 total appearances and a lousy 2-7 record with a 6.37 ERA. Medina has allowed a 42.2% hard-hit rate and a 1.84 HR/9. Devers has a great chance to add another home run to his team-high 20 total. 13 of his 20 home runs have come against right-handed pitching this year.

Shohei Ohtani ($6,500 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) at Los Angeles Dodgers

Shohei Ohtani deserves his own section at this point. He launched 15 home runs in the month of June and leads the league with 31 total home runs. He has struggled since the calendar changed, with one hit in his last 18 plate appearances for the month of July, but Ohtani is arguably the most feared hitter in baseball. His ceiling is one of the highest on the slate.

The Dodgers will start right-hander Tony Gonsolin who is struggling recently. After a great start to his season, Gonsolin has allowed 15 earned runs over his last three games in 14.1 innings pitched. Over that time, he has only 13 total strikeouts and is averaging just 4.3 DraftKings points per game. Ohtani may be struggling lately himself, but the upside is there once again.

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

Fantasy MLB DFS Picks Breakdown (Tuesday, June 6): Pay Up for Mitch Keller in GPPs MLB DFS: Model Picks and Value Plays for June 15 Fantasy MLB DFS Picks Breakdown (Saturday, Jun. 24): Target the Red-Hot Braves’ Offense MLB DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, July 19): Justin Verlander and Luis Castillo Stand Out

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials
Become a PRO Member

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Jordan Diaz ($2,100): Second Baseman, Oakland Athletics

The Athletics have a 97 Team Value Rating with eight of their nine hitters in DraftKings with a salary below $3,000. They are implied for 4.3 runs, while leadoff hitter Jordan Diaz has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate. Diaz has recorded at least two hits in three of his last four games as his hard-hit rate has climbed to 47.8% with five home runs and a .186 ISO.

Brennan Bernardino will serve as the opener for the Red Sox, with Brandon Walter as the long reliever. Both pitchers have a lack of big league experience, and since they are both southpaws, Diaz will have the platoon advantage. Diaz does not need a lot of DraftKings points to return value at $2,100 with a 71% Bargain Rating and fills a difficult second base position.

Kyle Farmer ($2,400): Second Baseman/Third Baseman, Minnesota Twins

The Twins are another great source of value on this 12-game slate, as they are implied for 4.8 runs. Kyle Farmer is the player to target as he has a slate-high eight Pro Trends and a 94% Bargain Rating. Farmer is projected to bat clean-up in the Twins lineup with second baseman and third baseman DraftKings eligibility, making him easy to fit into all lineup builds.

Orioles left-hander Cole Irvin will take the mound in search of just his second win of the season. Irvin has allowed a 6.32 ERA and a career-high 14.4% barrel percentage. In his five seasons in the majors, Irvin hasn’t had above a 20% strikeout rate. He is also a completely different pitcher on the road, with a 9.64 ERA compared to his 4.91 ERA when pitching at home.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Zac Gallen ($9,600 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Leading all pitchers in projected ownership, Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen is a -200 favorite against the Pirates who are tied for the lowest implied run total on the slate at 3.6 tonight. Despite suffering his third loss of the season in his last outing, Gallen recorded 12 strikeouts and scored 28.2 DraftKings points. He has never had a season below a 26.5% strikeout rate.

The Pirates are one of the least feared hitting teams, as they have only hit 80 home runs this season, which is tied for the fifth-lowest mark in the league. Capturing strikeouts has been hit or miss for Gallen during his last few outings, but the ceiling is there for a great outing against this weak-hitting lineup. A victory would give Gallen a tie for the league lead in wins.

Hitter

Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,400 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) vs. New York Mets

Fernando Tatis Jr. has the highest ceiling in both our in-house and THE BAT X projections. He has recorded two or more hits and 16+ DraftKings points in four of his last five games. Over that time, Tatis Jr. has four extra base hits with seven RBIs and six runs. The best part is he is projected for less than 5% ownership making him a great contrarian pay-up option.

After an 18-4 record with the Astros, veteran right-hander Justin Verlander will take the mound for the Mets, looking to get back to a .500 record. Verlander has a 3.66 ERA, which is the highest he has had since his 2014 season with the Tigers. Given his age and how much his velocity is down, Tatis Jr. should have no troubles at the plate tonight. Regardless of the pitch type or pitcher handedness, Tatis Jr. has been the best hitter for the Padres over the last 30 days (via PlateIQ):

More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.

Pitcher

Andrew Abbott ($9,900 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel) at Milwaukee Brewers

Despite being a road underdog and the most expensive pitcher on the slate, Reds rookie Andrew Abbott is worth the price tag. Through six starts, he has a 4-0 record with a 1.21 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP. Pair that with a near 30% strikeout rate and a matchup against the Brewers, who have the third-highest strikeout rate in the league; you get a pitcher with a huge upside.

Abbott is coming off a career-high 12 strikeouts against the Padres. He has thrown over 100 pitches in four of his six starts and is projected for the second-most strikeouts among all pitchers. Averaging over 25 DraftKings points per game, Abbott is a contrarian pay-up option due to his lower ownership. There is a ton of strikeout upside in this matchup for Abbott tonight.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Vivid Picks has to offer with promo code LABS for a $200 deposit match.

Hitters

Rafael Devers ($4,900 DraftKings, $3,100 FanDuel) vs. Oakland Athletics

The Red Sox are the most popular stack on this slate, as they have six of the top 12 batters in projected ownership on DraftKings. Their best hitter Rafael Devers has been on fire recently with a .252 ISO and a .395 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the last 30 days. The third baseman position is loaded, but Devers is the best option due to the easy matchup.

Athletics rookie right-hander Luis Medina will make just his ninth start of the season. He has 11 total appearances and a lousy 2-7 record with a 6.37 ERA. Medina has allowed a 42.2% hard-hit rate and a 1.84 HR/9. Devers has a great chance to add another home run to his team-high 20 total. 13 of his 20 home runs have come against right-handed pitching this year.

Shohei Ohtani ($6,500 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) at Los Angeles Dodgers

Shohei Ohtani deserves his own section at this point. He launched 15 home runs in the month of June and leads the league with 31 total home runs. He has struggled since the calendar changed, with one hit in his last 18 plate appearances for the month of July, but Ohtani is arguably the most feared hitter in baseball. His ceiling is one of the highest on the slate.

The Dodgers will start right-hander Tony Gonsolin who is struggling recently. After a great start to his season, Gonsolin has allowed 15 earned runs over his last three games in 14.1 innings pitched. Over that time, he has only 13 total strikeouts and is averaging just 4.3 DraftKings points per game. Ohtani may be struggling lately himself, but the upside is there once again.

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

Fantasy MLB DFS Picks Breakdown (Tuesday, June 6): Pay Up for Mitch Keller in GPPs MLB DFS: Model Picks and Value Plays for June 15 Fantasy MLB DFS Picks Breakdown (Saturday, Jun. 24): Target the Red-Hot Braves’ Offense MLB DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, July 19): Justin Verlander and Luis Castillo Stand Out

About the Author

Tyler Schmidt writes NBA, NFL, and MLB content for FantasyLabs and Action Network. He has a degree in Management Information Systems and minor in Computer Science. Tyler has been playing DFS for over a decade and writing content as a freelancer for the past five years. He is a former collegiate basketball player who still holds the Minnesota State High School record for consecutive free throws with 72 that he set in 2009. Schmidt's strong knowledge of the game allows him to take an analytical approach to betting and fantasy sports.