The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Saturday features a 10-game main slate starting at 4:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
I can’t believe I’m about to talk about Jose Berrios as a stud pitcher in 2023, but here we are. Berrios was always slightly overvalued as a pitcher during his tenure with Minnesota, and he was downright awful in his first full season with the Blue Jays in 2022. He posted a 5.23 ERA and a 5.11 xERA, while his 7.80 K/9 was the lowest full-season mark of his career. Calling him one of the worst full-time starters in baseball wouldn’t have been a stretch.
Berrios has flipped the script in 2023. He still hasn’t been elite, posting a 3.64 ERA and a 3.86 FIP, but those numbers are obviously significant improvements. He’s also progressed as the year has gone on, posting a 3.19 ERA in May and a 3.04 ERA in June. Berrios has also been at his best in Toronto, where he owns a 2.37 ERA for the year.
Berrios will be at home for Saturday’s start vs. the A’s, which is one of the best possible matchups. They rank 27th in wRC+ and third in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, and they’re implied for just 3.5 runs. That’s the lowest mark on Saturday’s slate, and Berrios is also a massive -275 favorite. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.12 (per the Trends tool).
Berrios still doesn’t stand out as a slam dunk option, but he’s the best value in the stud tier per THE BAT.
MLB DFS Value Pick
It has been a season to forget for Lance Lynn. He’s pitched to an abysmal 6.51 ERA across 15 starts, the second-worst mark in the league among qualified starters. His average fastball velocity has dipped by approximately two miles per hour from his peak, and he’s also walking nearly two additional batters per nine innings compared to last season.
Still, it hasn’t been all bad for Lynn. He’s still capable of generating swings-and-misses, racking up just under 11 strikeouts per nine innings. Lynn’s downfall has been some bad luck when batters do make contact, surrendering a .342 batting average on balls in play. His batted ball data isn’t atrocious – 62nd-percentile average exit velocity, 37th-percentile hard hit rate – so there’s no reason he should be surrendering that much damage.
That makes Lynn an interesting progression candidate, and he has some appeal from an upside perspective vs. the Red Sox. Boston is a capable offense against right-handed pitchers, but they also provide some strikeout potential. The Red Sox’s lineup has whiffed in 27.9% of at-bats vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, the third-highest splits-adjusted mark on the slate. As a result, Lynn has the fourth-highest K Prediction in our MLB Models.
Lynn is also one of the better pure values at pitcher on DraftKings, where his $7,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 61%. He leads all starters in THE BAT in projected Plus/Minus, making him a solid SP2 for tournaments.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
It’s been an up-and-down season for Max Scherzer, but he’s coming off a gem in his last outing. He racked up eight strikeouts across eight innings vs. the Astros, surrendering just one run in the process. He’ll face a step up in competition vs. the Phillies, who are currently implied for 4.7 runs. That’s not the type of mark that you typically associate with a pitcher like Scherzer. That said, Scherzer also leads the slate with a 7.33 K Prediction, and his $8,900 salary on DraftKings makes him significantly cheaper than usual.
Luis Severino has made just six starts this season, and he has been thoroughly roughed up in those outings. He’s pitched to a 6.30 ERA, and his advanced metrics suggest he’s been as bad as advertised. However, Sevy posted a 3.18 ERA and a 2.94 xERA in 2022, and he has a pretty long track record of success. He’s still just 29 years old, so it wouldn’t be a huge shock if he turned things around at some point. A matchup vs. the Rangers is not the most likely spot for positive regression, with Texas boasting one of the most intimidating lineups in baseball. That said, at $7,200, Severino doesn’t provide a ton of downside. If he’s able to recapture his form, he has the potential to pay big dividends at his current salary.
Yonny Chirinos has been extremely effective for the Rays this season, pitching to a 2.72 ERA across 43 innings. His advanced metrics aren’t nearly as impressive, and he’s striking out just 4.19 batters per nine innings, but a matchup vs. the Royals doesn’t inspire much fear. They rank dead last in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers, so this is another great spot for Chirinos to pile up outs. He leads all pitchers in projected FanDuel Plus/Minus per THE BAT, and he’s projected for just five percent ownership.
Chirinos also grades out well using our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:
MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in our MLB Models when generated by projected points using THE BAT belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
The Braves and Reds had a home run derby on Friday, with the two teams combining for 21 runs and a ridiculous nine long balls. Saturday’s rematch features a 12-run total, so the bookmakers are expecting another offensive bonanza at the Great American Ballpark. Cincinnati’s stadium ranks as the third-most hitter-friendly venue in baseball per Statcast Park Factors, and it’s first from a homer perspective. It may not be Coors Field, but it’s as close as possible.
The Braves are expected to do most of the damage, leading all of Saturday’s offenses with a 6.5-run implied team total. Their offense is incredibly dangerous to begin with, so putting them in Cincinnati is a scary proposition.
They also draw an excellent matchup vs. right-hander Graham Ashcraft. He’s pitched to a 6.78 ERA this season, including an appalling 8.63 ERA in Cincinnati. He’s also been absolutely torched in his past two outings, surrendering 13 earned runs in just 6.6 innings.
The Braves’ offense also enters this spot in elite recent form. Virtually their entire starting lineup has feasted against right-handers over the past 30 days, with all but one starter owning a wOBA of at least .360 in that split (via PlateIQ):
The Braves’ top stack is expensive, and it will undoubtedly be a popular choice. Still, it’s hard not to love their prospects in this spot.
If you are looking to get a bit creative, you could potentially replace Austin Riley with another batter in the Braves’ lineup. He’s the third-most expensive option at $5,500, and he’s been their least-effective hitter against right-handers over the past 30 days. Travis d’Arnaud would help fill the catcher slot – always appealing for stack purposes – while Michael Harris Jr. would slightly reduce the overall cost without killing the correlation.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Kevin Newman 1B/3B/SS ($2,800 DraftKings, $2,700 FanDuel) Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves (Jared Shuster)
Everything I wrote about the Great American Ballpark also applies to Cincinnati. Their matchup vs. Shuster isn’t quite as appealing – he owns a 4.57 ERA this season – but the Reds’ 5.8-run implied team total is nothing to scoff at. Newman will bat first in the Reds’ red-hot lineup, and he’ll be on the positive side of his splits against the southpaw. He’s posted a .407 wOBA and a .227 ISO in that split this season, and he’s been even more potent over the past 30 days. His eligibility differs by site – he’s a 1B/3B on DraftKings and a SS on FanDuel – but he’s a viable value target wherever you roster him.
Brandon Belt 1B/OF ($2,400 DraftKings, $2,500 FanDuel) Toronto Blue Jays. Oakland Athletics (Shintaro Fujinami)
Belt did not get the job done at a cheap price tag on Friday, but I’m going right back to the well on Saturday. He checks a lot of the same boxes that he did on yesterday’s slate: cheap salary, elite lineup spot, and excellent implied team total. The Jays’ implied team total of 5.8 runs trails only the Braves on today’s slate, and they should be able to do serious damage against the A’s pitching staff. Fujinami will serve as the opener, and he’s posted an absurd 10.27 ERA through 37.2 innings this season. After that, the A’s have the worst bullpen ERA in baseball by a wide margin. Toronto stacks are definitely in play, but Belt makes a ton of sense even if you’re not loading up on the Blue Jays.
Ji Hwan Bae 2B/OF ($2,700 DraftKings, $2,600 FanDuel) Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins (Bryan Hoeing)
While power is typically prioritized in DFS lineups, it comes at a premium. Speed is often much more affordable, and that’s the case with Bae on Saturday. He already has 20 steals this season, tied for the seventh-highest mark in baseball. Steals don’t offer quite as much upside as homers, but a multi-steal game can be just as effective for fantasy purposes. Bae will also move up to the top spot in the Pirates’ lineup on Saturday, making him another nice value target.
