MLB

MLB DFS: Model Picks and Value Plays for June 15

By Grant White @4thlinesports
Jun 15, 2023

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Andrew Benintendi ($2,900): Outfielder, Chicago White Sox

On Wednesday, the White Sox broke out of the mini-slump. The Southsiders snapped a four-game losing streak, scoring eight against Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers. They’re poised for a repeat performance, led by an undervalued Benintendi.

Benintendi has been a modest offensive contributor but has hits in four of his last five and seven of ten. More importantly, we’ve seen a jump in his run production over his more recent sample. The White Sox outfielder has scored twice and driven in two over his last three outings, boosting his fantasy appeal.

The White Sox get to tee off on Michael Grove and his .461 expected slugging percentage. The left-handed batting Benintendi lights up righties, with 11 of his 15 extra-base hits and ten of his 16 RBI coming off conventional arms.

Donovan Solano ($2,000): First Base, Minnesota Twins

At first glance, it appears there’s a glitch in the DraftKings pricing model. Solano enters Thursday’s main slate with a very palatable salary. Combined with his lefty splits and Matthew Boyd’s combustible nature, Solano stands out as one of the best values of the day.

The Twins’ first baseman rakes versus southpaws. Solano’s slugging percentage jumps to .472 against lefties, up from .340 against right-handed pitchers. Seventeen of his 45 hits and eight of his 13 doubles have come in his 56 plate appearances against southpaws, less than half of the 126 plate appearances versus righties.

Further, Solano has concrete underlying metrics irrespective of the pitcher’s handedness. The former Silver Slugger ranks in the 77th percentile in hard-hit rate and 97th percentile in expected batting average. Boyd ranks in the league’s bottom half in expected ERA and slugging percentage, assuring Solano maintains his gaudy splits against the Tigers.

MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Shohei Ohtani ($10,700 DraftKings, $10,700 FanDuel) vs. Texas Rangers

It’s taken much longer than expected, but the Angels are finally meeting expectations. The Halos have marched up the standings, thanks in part to Ohtani’s seemingly neverending contributions. The AL MVP frontrunner is toeing the rubber for the series finale against the Rangers and projects as the pre-eminent pitcher on tonight’s docket.

The former MVP has elevated his pitching metrics over the past few seasons. Ohtani has first-class traditional stats and advanced metrics that will keep him in the Cy Young conversation. Specifically, Ohtani ranks 90th percentile or better in expected batting average, whiff rate, and strikeout percentage while sitting with the 16th-best ERA among qualified starters in the American League.

There are several other factors impacting Ohtani’s probability of success today. The Rangers have seen a marked decrease in their offensive metrics this week, sitting in the bottom half of the MLB in OPS and compiling the fourth most strikeouts. Ohtani will add to those woes as he lives up to his fantasy ceiling at Globe Life Field.

Hitter

Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,600 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Rockies

You’ll have to excuse us if it appears we’re turning into an Acuna fan page. The two-time Silver Slugger is a menace. The Atlanta Braves slugger is the odds-on favorite to claim his first MVP trophy and is our median and ceiling projection leader on the main slate.

Somehow, Acuna has elevated his fantasy profile even higher. He enters tonight’s inter-divisional showdown with nine hits over his previous five games, including three doubles, three homers, six runs scored, and ten RBI. Consequently, Acuna has raised his slugging percentage to .685 this month, inflating his OPS to 1.089.

We’re anticipating sustained success from the right fielder moving forward. Acuna ranks in the 99th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, expected batting average, and expected slugging percentage. He also benefits from swinging against a lefty, as Acuna’s slugging percentage jumps to .603 against southpaws.

The Braves’ leadoff man is consistently priced with one of the highest salaries, deservedly so. Expect him to deliver on those expectations, and he is worth including on any roster.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Vivid Picks has to offer with promo code LABS for a $200 deposit match.

More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.

Pitcher

Sonny Gray ($9,300 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Tigers

Stepping onto the mound against the Tigers comes with an implied advantage. The Tigers rate as one of the worst offensive teams in the league, churning out the fewest runs and worst OPS while compiling the 12th-most strikeouts. Gray is the beneficiary on Thursday as he looks to maintain his current hot streak.

The Twins pitcher has thrown quality starts in two of his last three outings. Over that stretch, he’s struck out ten across 17.2 innings pitched, allowing just seven total runs. Still, Gray hasn’t recorded a win since the end of April, despite limiting opponents to three or fewer runs in each of his starts. We’re expecting some run support to prop him up over the coming games and wins to start piling up for the soft-throwing righty.

Analytically, Gray remains an above-average arm. He’s used his six-pitch mix to keep batters guessing, accumulating a .365 expected slugging percentage and 3.57 expected ERA, putting him in the top 69% of pitchers. Those metrics should only go up against a toothless Tigers squad.

Hitters

Jose Ramirez ($4,500 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. San Diego Padres

Jose Ramirez was revered as one of baseball’s best hitters for years. Although some of the shine has worn off, we like his ceiling against Ryan Weathers and the San Diego Padres.

The switch-hitting slugger has been unstoppable over his recent sample. Since June 6, Ramirez has recorded a hit in every contest, totaling 13 base hits, two doubles, and four home runs. Predictably, this has resulted in a surge in run production, with the former MVP runner-up delivering eight runs scored and batted in. Moreover, he’ll have a chance to sustain that All-Star form against Weathers.

The Padres’ southpaw has struggled to contain opponents this year, giving up a .423 expected slugging percentage and 4.35 expected ERA. Ramirez has an unforgiving approach at the plate, ensuring he adds to those woes on Thursday.

Freddie Freeman ($6,300 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) vs. Chicago White Sox

Eventually, the Los Angeles Dodgers will break out of their recent funk. LA has been mired in a 3-7 streak, relinquishing their division lead to the upstart Arizona Diamondbacks. To do so, they’ll need their best players to step up, starting with MVP candidate Freddie Freeman.

Freeman continues to display an elite fantasy profile. The six-time All-Star sits in the 99th percentile in expected batting average and slugging percentage, displaying above-average strikeout and walk metrics as well. He consistently hits out of the two-spot, giving him ample opportunity to drive in the baserunners ahead of him and come around to score. That’s reflected in his traditional stats, as Freeman leads the team in runs scored and extra-base hits while ranking third in RBI and fourth in home runs.

For the first time since April 21, Freeman has been held hitless in two straight games. He’s due for a breakout performance, which should come tonight against Dylan Cease.

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.