The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Johan Oviedo ($6,200): Pitcher, Pittsburgh Pirates
Look, the numbers for Johan Oviedo are not appealing, but the model shows his elevated bargain potential against a beatable Detroit Tigers lineup.
On the season, Oviedo is 4-11 with a 4.60 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. He has allowed a 40.6 hard hit % and .330 xwOBA.
PlateIQ shows the matchup is great for Oviedo against the Tigers. Detroit has just two hitters with a high ISO and three with a high wOBA. The projected lineup also strikes out at an elevated 23.6 K%.
Matt Wallner ($2,400): Outfielder, Minnesota Twins
The 25-year-old outfielder rejoined the Twins on July 17 after stints on the major league roster in both April and May. Overall, Matt Wallner is batting .258/.378/.532 on the year with five home runs in 62 at-bats.
Four of those home runs have come in the last five games as Wallner has found a power streak for the Twins. In that span, he is averaging 12.4 DraftKings points per game with a +8.07 average Plus/Minus.
The Twins face Cardinals righty Miles Mikolas today in St. Louis. Veteran Mikolas is 6-6 with a 4.38 ERA on the season and has allowed eight earned runs over his last two starts. Wallner is a great value option to continue his hot streak at the plate.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Spencer Strider ($12,500 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Spencer Strider continues to cement himself in the Cy Young Award conversation with his 11-3 record on the year. In 21 starts, he has a 3.73 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and a league-leading 199 strikeouts in 123 innings.
His fantasy ceiling potential is largely derived from his massive 39.6 K%. He has at least nine strikeouts in each of his six starts and has hit double-digits in each of his last four.
For his top-end price tag, the ceiling is still high enough for Strider to provide fantasy value in lineups. He has six positive Plus/Minus performances in his last seven starts. This projected Angels lineup has an elevated 23.6 K% today to add fuel to his fire potential.
Hitter
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,700 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Angels
It is difficult to find another hitter in the major leagues, outside of Shohei Ohtani, with the ceiling potential that Ronald Acuna Jr. provides on a daily basis. The Braves outfielder continues to rake at the plate with a .333/.415/.573 hitting line to go with 24 home runs, 61 RBI, and an incredible 51 stolen bases.
Despite tallying just eight RBI in July, Acuna Jr. still produced an average +3.33 Plus/Minus over the last month on the back of 14 stolen bases. He has an incredible 17 20+ DraftKings point games on the season.
He will look to notch number 18 today against Angels lefty Patrick Sandoval. Sandoval is 6-7 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 18 starts.
More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that are standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Lance Lynn ($7,900 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel) vs. Oakland Athletics
After more than two seasons with the White Sox, Lance Lynn was traded to the Dodgers on Friday ahead of the trade deadline. He makes his first start for Los Angeles today with a plus matchup against the lowly Athletics.
Lynn has struggled this season with a 6-9 record and a 6.47 ERA. A fresh start may be the cure to get him back on track for a pitcher who has never had a losing record in 12 major league seasons.
The Athletics have an extremely low hit projection tonight with an elevated 24.6 K% in their lineup this year. Take advantage of Lynn’s bargain price on today’s slate.
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Hitters
Marcus Semien ($6,000 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) vs. Chicago White Sox
Marcus Semien is having the best season of his 11-year career in his second season with the Rangers. The second baseman is batting .274/.342/.447 on the season with 15 home runs and 66 RBI.
He has been a little hit-or-miss for fantasy owners through the back half of July. In his last 13 games, Semien has three games with 20+ DraftKings points and eight games in the single digits. He has a -1.54 average Plus/Minus over the last month.
Today could be one of the “hit” games for Semien against Jesse Scholtens and the White Sox. Primarily a reliever, Scholtens is 1-3 with a 3.32 ERA in 16 appearances this season in just 38 innings. Expect multiple relievers to get the call for Chicago and a variety of matchup options for Semien to take advantage of today.
Brandon Nimmo ($4,600 DraftKings, $3,300 FanDuel) at Kansas City Royals
The model loves Brandon Nimmo today as a shot-in-the-dark tournament play. To be fair, his recent production does not provide a ton of optimism, but that should lead to low ownership on the slate.
Nimmo is batting .256/.353/.431 on the season with 15 home runs and 47 RBI. In July, those batting numbers slumped to .161/.282/.345 and Nimmo has five straight negative Plus/Minus games.
The bright side for Nimmo and the Mets is in today’s matchup against veteran Zack Greinke on the tail end of his long, successful career. Greinke has sputtered in 2023 to a 1-11 record for the Royals with a 5.49 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.
