Wednesday’s MLB DFS slate includes 10 games and begins at 7:05 p.m. ET. Three pitchers come in at over $10,000 on FanDuel. Like my haircut, I will be fading the top options today.
Pitchers
- Max Scherzer (R), $11,200, WSH @ PHI
- Walker Buehler (R), $10,300, LAD vs ARI
- Zac Gallen (R), $10,000, ARI @ LAD
Max Scherzer has been better than his peripherals indicate, as his ERA is almost one run higher than expected, but he is getting hit harder than ever before. His 42.9% Hard-hit Rate (Hard%) is 12.8% higher than his career average and the second straight season that it’s markedly above his average. When Scherzer gets hit, he gets tail-whipped by opposing offenses.
He’s not a pitcher I’m looking to play today because he gets the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies are a top-four team in slugging, on-base percentage, and Offensive WAR. The offense is not striking out, either (19.7%, 29th in baseball).
Walker Buehler screams “fade” because he’s starting after a stint on the 10-day IL with a blister on his pitching hand, even after a 58-point FanDuel outing on August 21. His opponent is the new-look (or offensively-depleted) Arizona Diamondbacks. The D-backs are bottom 10 in all three traditional slash categories and bottom five in Offensive WAR. Buehler would have to pitch six innings and continue to limit walks. Buehler has pitched six innings once and has allowed one or fewer walks in each of his last two starts.
There are too many factors that limit Buehler’s upside today.
I did not expect to see Zac Gallen at or above $10,000. I also will not use him in MLB DFS today because Arizona is projected to score the fewest runs on the slate (3.4), and the Los Angeles Dodgers have a top-three offense when using Offensive WAR.
I’d rather spend a little more time showcasing the values on today’s slate because this is the range I will target.
Values
I would prefer to use the next three pitchers over the three higher-priced options today.
Much like Scherzer, Kyle Hendricks has been getting hit harder than ever. Hendricks’ pitching arsenal lends more to harder hits than Scherzer, but as a higher-end pitching option, he must be dialed in to offer upside.
Luckily for Hendricks, he gets the Pittsburgh Pirates, baseball’s second-worst offense. His point upside tends to be lower because he doesn’t strike out a lot of batters, but he fits the money-saving bill. He is a little lower down the list of price-saving plays, but he has pitching pedigree and a deep lineup supporting him.
Throw opponents’ stats to the side whenever a pitcher faces the Texas Rangers. Today’s pitcher to take advantage of the league’s worst offense is the Houston Astros’ Cristian Javier. The Rangers and Pirates are the only two offenses with a Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) below 82. Texas checks in with a wRC+ of 65 — an offense that is 35% below league average. He is priced as the 11th pitcher on FanDuel but is a top-five play for me.
Dinelson Lamet is the chalk today, but he’s someone who belongs in your lineup. His ERA is 1.60 below his Expected Fielder Independent Pitching score (xFIP), but he and the majority of the San Diego Padres’ pitching staff are benefitting from a stacked offense. The Los Angeles Angels are an average offense (102 wRC+) and do not stand out in the majority of categories except walks. Lamet will issue free passes (3.29 per nine innings), but he’s leaving 84.3% on base.
Fastballs
I like Adrian Houser of the Milwaukee Brewers in his game against the Detroit Tigers. Houser has untapped strikeout upside because the Tigers whiff 31.3% of the time on the road, and Houser is due for positive strikeout regression. He is striking out 1.83 fewer batters per nine innings in 2020 than his career average. Houser ($6,000 on FanDuel, $8,500 on DraftKings) unlocks salary for higher-priced, consistent hitters. Houser rates as the highest at pitcher today on the Bales Model.
Notable Stacks
The Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins have scored runs in bunches during their recent series, leading to a notable FanDuel stack targeting the Twins:
- Josh Donaldson (R)
- Jorge Polanco (S)
- Nelson Cruz (R)
- Max Kepler (L)
Total Salary: $12,300
Three players at $3,000 or less makes the Twins an affordable stack with upside and a high projected point total (50.3). The Twins face Reynaldo Lopez, who, despite his electric stuff on the mound, has not figured out how to utilize it. Lopez won’t pitch deep into games, so the Twins may have to face a Sox bullpen that has stifled them a bit this series.
I’m all over the second stack FanDuel digs:
- Yuli Gurriel (R)
- Jose Altuve (R)
- Carlos Correa (R)
- George Springer (R)
Total Salary: $12, 600
A lot of Houston Astros hitters will be popular today because of their matchup with Texas and Kolby Allard, arguably the worst pitcher on the slate. The Bales Model has Springer as the best hitter on tonight’s slate.
Other Hitters
I am at the point where Ian Happ is an auto-play in MLB DFS. The switch-hitter has found his power stroke this week and has been racking up base hits as consistently as any hitter in baseball, especially over the last week. Happ and the Cubs should be a target today as they face Joe Musgrove and the Pirates. Musgrove is making his first start since recovering from a tricep injury. He will not pitch long, and the Pirates bullpen does not have solid stuff.
I want to play outfield bats in the Braves-Red Sox game. There’s value with #ProfessionalHitter Nick Markakis, as well as Marcell Ozuna and Alex Verdugo. They could be priced $500 more and still be lineup locks. Verdugo is a top-10 play on FanDuel, according to the Bales Model. This game has a projected run total for the game is 11.1.
Cesar Hernandez has a six-game hitting streak that has also included four walks. His price is $2,800 on FanDuel. Hernandez hits at the top of the Cleveland Indians’ lineup and gets Jake Junis and the Kansas City Royals tonight. Save some salary at second base, so you can pay up for one of the stacks.
