The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Zack Wheeler (R) $10,000 Philadelphia Phillies (-171) vs. Athletics
The Phillies have won eight of their ten games, with the start of that streak coming in Zack Wheeler‘s first start of the season on April 25th. He’s responsible for two of those ten wins and has given up just three runs across 11 innings while recording 14 strikeouts this season.
The best part for DFS purposes is that he isn’t – or wasn’t – fully stretched out after missing the first month of the season. He threw 84 pitches in his first appearance and 94 in his second and could be in line to last a bit longer tonight against the Athletics.
It’s a good matchup for Wheeler, especially considering the park factor. The Athletics have solid overall numbers but notable home/road splits. Their home wRC+ is 117 (or 17% above average), while that mark drops to just 83 on the road. While Citizens Bank Park favors hitters slightly, it’s still a massive step down from the A’s home in Sacramento.
Wheeler’s combination of strikeout upside and run prevention makes him the clear top play tonight, and he leads our models in median and ceiling projection.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Colin Rea (R) $6,500 Chicago Cubs (-180) vs. Cincinnati Reds
The best Vegas Data on the board surprisingly belongs to the Cubs and Colin Rea, with the visiting Reds implied for a slate-low 3.5 runs tonight. Similar to the A’s, a game in Wrigley is a considerable step down in Park Factor for the Reds, whose wRC+ drops from 99 at home to 77 on the road this season.
That impact is amplified today by the weather at Wrigley. According to Weather Edge, the forecasted conditions drop home runs nearly 33% on average and total scoring about 8% over almost a 100-game sample size. That’s fairly significant, especially for a pitch-to-contact pitcher like Rea.
His 21.1% strikeout rate is nothing to get excited about, nor is his 4.41 ERA. However, the latter number should be a bit lower, with his SIERA just 3.58 and his FIP 3.42. He’s also scored at least 14 DraftKings points in every game except when playing the Dodgers, with the six runs they hung on him over 3+ innings perhaps unfairly dragging down his overall numbers.
You would certainly live with 15 or so points from Rea tonight at his price point, and he leads our Pts/Sal projection despite a median of just under 14.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Paul Skenes (R) $9,800 Pittsburgh Pirates (-150) at Arizona Diamondbacks
It’s hard to describe a pitcher with a 29% strikeout rate and 3.18 ERA as “disappointing,” but that speaks to the lofty bar Paul Skenes has set for himself. All of his numbers are the worst they’ve been in his young career, and his fastball has notably lost some speed. With all that said, he’s still topped 25 DraftKings points in three of his seven starts, so the ceiling is there. He’s a solid pivot from Wheeler at a considerable ownership discount.
Cole Ragans (L) $8,800 Kansas City Royals (-133) vs. Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians/Royals game has even worse hitting weather than at Wrigley, with a nearly 17% dip in scoring based on 85 games in similar conditions. Maybe that can help Cole Ragans get back on track, with the lefty’s ERA ballooning to 5.29 through seven starts this season. He’s still missing bats, with a 29.7% strikeout rate, which gives him plenty of upside. This could be the perfect buy-low spot against a mediocre opponent.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
We touched on the Phillies’ resurgence in the discussion of Wheeler above, but the offense has been a big part of the turnaround as well. They’ve averaged 4.9 runs in their 8-2 stretch over the last ten, with most of their major offensive pieces joining the party.
They should be able to keep it going tonight against left-hander Jeffrey Springs ($7,800), who has an ERA and underlying numbers all right around 4.00 coming into the game. The Phillies are technically on the wrong side of their collective platoon splits against southpaws, but most of their bats have a long track record of success in those spots.
This is also one of the few games with solid hitting weather, as the forecast calls for wind blowing straight out. This is likely to impact Springs more than Wheeler, since Springs has a well-above-average flyball rate and doesn’t strike out a ton of hitters.
Most importantly, the stack is still fairly cheap given the Phillies’ extended downturn, so it makes sense to get exposure before they cost a collective $2,500 more in a week or two.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Juan Soto OF ($6,600) New York Mets at Colorado Rockies (Michael Lorenzen)
The Mets are at Coors Field tonight, where they have a slate-leading 5.4-run implied total. They’re fairly pricey to stack as a complete unit, but we obviously want at least some exposure. The best option is Juan Soto, who leads all hitters in median and ceiling projection.
Part of that is due to opposing starter Michael Lorenzen‘s rough numbers against lefties this season:
I could’ve just as easily done the PlateIQ screenshot for Soto, since he has excellent numbers against righties (.287 ISO, .429 wOBA). Either way, it’s an elite spot for the star outfielder.
Trevor Larnach OF ($3,200) Minnesota Twins at Washington Nationals (Miles Mikolas)
Despite not playing in nearly as friendly a stadium, the Twins’ 5.2-run implied total ranks just behind the Mets for the top mark on the slate. Since they’re also an away team, that makes them nearly as valuable and somewhat more affordable overall.
Trevor Larnach is the best example of that. We’re projecting him for the #2 spot in their lineup, with just a $3,200 salary. That’s a solid value regardless of matchup, but double so against Miles Mikolas ($5,500). The 37-year-old comes into the game with an ERA over 8.00. Sure, his xERA is “only” 5.20, but either way you slice it, he’s been terrible this season, making the Twins a strong stack and Larnach a great budget one-off.
Maikel Garcia 3B ($4,500) Kansas City Royals (-133) vs. Cleveland Guardians (Joey Cantillo)
While the weather in Kansas City isn’t ideal for bats, I’m willing to overlook that in the case of Maikel Garcia. He hit .314 with a .921 OPS against lefties last season and has started 2026 with a .400 average over 28 at-bats. He’s facing left-handed Joey Cantillo tonight, who has allowed an .850 OPS to righties this season.
Plus, Garcia gets to hit in front of Bobby Witt ($6,100), which boosts his chances of getting pitches to hit and of scoring if he does get on base. I’d love to roster them both if I could afford it, but Garcia is the better value if you have to pick.
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Pictured: Zack Wheeler
Photo Credit: Imagn
