The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Shohei Ohtani (R) $11,500 Los Angeles Dodgers (-178) at Minnesota Twins
The Ohtani decision is going to be extremely interesting in DFS today. The “for” case is pretty clear: Ohtani is projecting well above any other pitcher on the slate in both median and ceiling and could easily break the slate if he has even a slightly above-average game by his standards. His ERA is still below 1.5, and he has a solid 27% strikeout rate, all while averaging more than six innings per start.
There are a couple of concerns, though. The obvious one is his salary. At $11,500, it’s $1,600 clear of any other pitcher, which puts Ohtani on the bottom half of the Pts/Sal projection. On top of that, he’ll probably lead all pitchers in ownership, so you aren’t paying up to be contrarian. Rostering him is betting on him posting a “have to have it” score and betting on the rest of your lineup to outplay the roughly 35% of the field who joins you on Ohtani.
Minnesota is also a somewhat tough matchup, with a top-ten wRC+ against righties and a below-average strikeout rate. None of that is a big deal with a pitcher of Ohtani’s ability, but it does lower his odds of a huge game.
For that reason, I consider him a very safe cash game option if you can fit him around lineups you otherwise like, but not a pitcher I’m especially interested in for tournaments. If I’m using a cheap (or especially a cheap and contrarian) stack, I have no problem throwing Ohtani in, but I won’t be going out of my way to pay up for the privilege of eating that much chalk.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Shane Drohan (L) $6,500 Milwaukee Brewers (-147) at Cincinnati Reds
Personally, I’m not nearly as enthused about Drohan’s prospects as our projections are. He has by far the best Pts/Sal projection on the slate (along with one other pitcher who also stands head and shoulders above the field), but I’m not completely convinced. I’ll lay out why he’s projecting so well first, then give my pushback afterwards.
Here’s the good: Drohan is just $6,500 and has a 3.40 ERA (with slightly better underlying numbers) through 47.2 innings pitched this season. He’s combined that with a solid 23.7% strikeout rate that should probably be slightly higher based on his swinging strike rate and is a moderate favorite against the 29th-best offense in baseball by wRC+.
On the flip side, Cincinnati is implied for 4.5 runs, and they’re a much better offense against left-handed pitching. In fact, they rank 8th in wRC+, thanks to a significant 16-point gap between their numbers against righties and lefties. That makes this a below-average matchup for Drohan, not a plus-plus one.
On top of that, about half of Drohan’s work this season has been as a reliever. As a starter, his ERA is over five, and he’s only topped 13 DraftKings points once in five starts. That came against the Rockies, the worst team in baseball against lefties.
All things considered, while I get the argument, Drohan won’t be in any of my rosters tonight.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Mitch Bratt (L) $4,000 Arizona Diamondbacks (+100) at St. Louis Cardinals
The budget option I am interested in taking a shot on is Bratt. The lefty is making his MLB debut after notching a 2.84 ERA in Triple-A this season but checks in at the $4,000 salary minimum. The Cardinals are slightly worse against lefties than the Reds and have about the same implied total. Considering the $2,500 discount, that’s enough for me to take the shot on the debutant over Drohan, especially at much lower ownership.
Gage Jump (L) $8,800 Athletics (-127) at San Francisco Giants
The higher-end arm I’m most interested in is the A’s Gage Jump. I’m always going to at least look at A’s pitchers on the road since their home park factors are so brutal, especially in a pitcher’s park like Oracle in San Francisco. Jump has a 2.37 ERA overall this season but is at 0.68 on the road across 13.1 innings. The Giants are a below-average team against lefties as well. Jump doesn’t have huge strikeout upside, but his price is fairly reasonable, and he’s also projecting for single-digit ownership.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers:
After two disappointing days, there’s fortunately no Coors Field game on the main slate, so we – and the models – are free to look elsewhere for a top stack. Today it comes in the form of the Brewers, who also get a considerable park factor upgrade by virtue of playing their game in Cincinnati, where home runs are boosted by more than 20%.
Milwaukee’s 5.3-run implied total is more than half a run clear of any other team, and they have a great matchup with Rhett Lowder ($6,300). The Reds’ rookie had a 4.82 ERA through 11 starts, with his xERA over 5.00. Milwaukee is a top-five team in baseball against righties, so it’s unlikely he gets back on track tonight.
The price point of the Brewers’ stack obviously makes things difficult, but with much of the field attempting to play Ohtani, that should also make them fairly contrarian. It’s one of the reasons I’m interested in cheaper pitchers. A semi-contrarian road team at an elite hitter’s park with the best implied total on the board is just too good to pass up, even with a high salary.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Sal Stewart 1B/3B ($4,500) Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Shane Drohan)
With me being mostly out on Drohan and him projecting for high ownership, the obvious play is to get some leverage against him by rostering Cincinnati hitters. We’ve got a few solid options, but my favorite is Stewart, who leads all third baseman-eligible hitters in median projection.
He (and Spencer Steer ($4,100)) pop immediately in PlateIQ when looking at the Reds’ numbers against lefties:
With the pair of them fitting well around Milwaukee stacks, I’ll be making this a game-stack situation and giving myself a massive edge on Drohan lineups if and when the Reds’ bats do some damage.
Ketel Marte 2B ($5,100) Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals (Matthew Liberatore)
Marte has the second-best median projection among hitters today, as he leads off a Diamondbacks lineup implied for 4.5 runs on the road in St. Louis. That’s a solid, if not great, mark against Matthew Liberatore ($6,200), the Cardinals’ lefty with a 5.23 ERA on the season.
Marte has historically been a monster against southpaws, with a career .305 average and .901 OPS. This year he’s hitting “only” .287, but he’s still very solid, and his numbers are much better than against righties. Since his salary is based on his average performance overall, it’s always advantageous to roster him when he’s on the right side of his platoon splits.
This game also has the best hitting weather on the slate, with a 13% boost to scoring and a 17% boost to home runs.
George Springer OF ($4,000) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros (Mike Burrows)
Toronto has the second-best team total on the slate at 4.8 runs but doesn’t seem to be drawing much attention, with Springer their only hitter projecting for over 10% ownership (and even then, only barely). I suppose that makes sense since they’ve been a roughly average offense against righties, but it still feels like an inefficiency.
Plus, $4,000 for a leadoff hitter on the team with the second-best total is a value absent any other information. With Springer having the best numbers on the team against righties (dating back to the start of 2025) and Mike Burrows ($7,100) having an ERA over five, there’s plenty of reason to be in on him today.
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Pictured: Shohei Ohtani
Photo Credit: Imagn
