The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Chris Sale (L) $11,000 Atlanta Braves (-155) at Chicago White Sox
The four years that I’ve been writing baseball content roughly coincide with the second act of Chris Sale‘s career, when he returned to full-time action after making only 11 appearances across three seasons from 2020 to 2022. In these four years, I’ve been able to write effectively the same thing about Sale once every fifth day.
In a testament to his longevity, he remains an elite arm in his age-37 season. As we’ve come to rely on, he has a strikeout rate around 30% and an ERA well below 3.00. He’s also averaging 95.9 mph on his fastball – his best mark since 2011 when he was coming out of the bullpen. He’s topped 21 DraftKings points in seven of his last eight outings, picking up at least 28 points in half of them.
All of that shows that there’s never really a bad time to roster Sale, with the possible exception of elite opposition. The White Sox aren’t quite that, though they do rank third in baseball in wRC+ against lefties. His former team still has the lowest implied total on the slate by half of a run, though.
The matchup and somewhat hitter-friendly weather downgrade Sale from a “must-play” to a “would really like to play if I have the salary.” There are some interesting cheaper options on the slate that also make sense, but I definitely want some exposure to Sale, who leads the slate in median and ceiling projection comfortably.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Reid Detmers (R) $7,500 Los Angeles Angels (-120) vs. Houston Astros
One of those cheaper options is the Angels’ Reid Detmers, who has returned to the starting rotation after spending 2025 as a reliever. That return has come with a slight increase to his ERA, jumping up to 4.26, but that may be more due to bad luck than struggling to be effective over longer outings.
Detmers has been one of the most unlucky starters this season, with his xERA and FIP both under 3.00. That’s more than a full run shy of his actual ERA. He also has a very strong 28.5% strikeout rate that we don’t typically see in pitchers priced under $9,000 or so, making a very strong case for him being underpriced due to some bad luck.
The Astros are a roughly league-average matchup against lefties, both in terms of strikeout rate and run production. That means, in theory, that Detmers should regress to his true ability, whatever that may be. Given my strong belief in regression, I would normally be all in on Detmers tonight – except the field already is, with Detmers leading the slate in projected ownership.
One of the benefits of the regression argument is the edge gained over the field that is looking at more traditional stats, which doesn’t apply here. That makes Detmers a strong cash game option, though my interest in him for tournaments is limited.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Shota Imanaga (L) $8,000 Chicago Cubs (-173) at Colorado Rockies
One of the factors limiting my interest in Detmers in GPPs is the presence of Shota Imanaga, who for just $500 more comes in with about a quarter of the projected ownership. That’s a result of Imanaga starting tonight in Coors Field, which is obviously sub-optimal for pitchers – but the matchup makes it worthwhile. Colorado is the worst team in baseball against left-handed pitching, with a 69 wRC+ and 27.1% strikeout rate, despite roughly half of those games being at Coors Field. In fact, they strike out at a slightly higher rate (27.8%) at home against lefties. Park factors don’t matter when the ball is in the catcher’s glove, making Imanaga an elite upside option.
Jesus Luzardo (L) $8,500 Philadelphia Phillies (-136) at Toronto Blue Jays
While not nearly as bad as the Rockies, Toronto comes into the game ranking 27th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching, making this a solid matchup for Jesus Luzardo. He also doesn’t have to pitch at Coors Field, which is clearly an added benefit. Luzardo is another starter whose ERA indicators are about a run lower than his 4.56 ERA, with a solid mid-20s strikeout rate. His upside isn’t as high as Imanaga’s, but his downside isn’t as low either, making him a solid option in smaller tournaments.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Chicago Cubs:
The Cubs only managed three runs last night at Coors Field in a disappointing loss to the Rockies, but the market is expecting that to turn around. They bring a solid 6.9-run implied total into Wednesday’s contest, when they face the Rockies’ Michael Lorenzen ($5,000).
Lorenzen comes with an ERA over 8.00, which is somewhat a result of his home ballpark. However, his ERA predictors are all above 4.50 and as high as 6.00, so it’s not just the park giving him problems. Plus, he’s in that park tonight, so it’s not like he’s getting any relief in that department.
The Cubs are a bit pricey but not prohibitively so – especially if you’re comfortable fading Sale. Plus, the presence of another game with absurd park factors means the Cubs’ ownership will be somewhat reasonable, a rare opportunity for a game at Coors Field.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Nick Kurtz 1B ($5,900) Athletics vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Brandon Sproat)
The first two games of the Athletics series in Vegas against the Brewers have produced a combined 41 runs, with yesterday giving us 12 of them. That felt like a disappointment after 29 runs on Monday but would be elite in any other context. The total this time around is 15, with both teams sharing in that roughly evenly.
Kurtz has managed 55 DraftKings points so far this series despite a pair of southpaw starters in the first two games. Now he’s on the stronger side of his platoon splits, as we can see in PlateIQ:
The starting pitcher matchup isn’t especially important since we don’t expect either of them to spend too much time in this game, but it’s still a bump to Kurtz. Salaries have caught up with the park factors in this game, but I still want as much exposure as possible. Kurtz leads all hitters in median and ceiling projection.
Christian Yelich OF ($5,800) Milwaukee Brewers at Athletics (Jack Perkins)
We could insert effectively any Brewers hitter in this spot, but Yelich has the best Pts/Sal projection outside of the bottom-of-the-lineup bats. Beyond the ridiculous park factors, it’s also worth pointing out that both teams’ bullpens are probably fairly taxed here, between starters being chased early and Monday’s game going 12 innings.
Jack Perkins ($5,800) is making just his second start of the year for the A’s and has a 6.19 ERA split between the rotation and bullpen. It could be a short day for him. The argument against Yelich (and for lower-order Brewers hitters) is that Yelich would likely be the first hitter to sit in a blowout as a fairly injury-prone star. However, this game is projecting as a fairly close shootout, so I’m not particularly concerned.
Joc Pederson OF ($3,000) Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals (Seth Lugo)
I’m returning to the well on Pederson, who put up 10 DraftKings points on a $3,100 salary last night in Kansas City and is inexplicably slightly cheaper tonight. He has another matchup against a low-strikeout/high-fly-ball-rate pitcher in Seth Lugo ($7,600), which plays perfectly to the strengths of the slugging Young Joc.
More importantly, there’s once again ridiculous hitting weather in Kansas City, with similar conditions producing a 30% boost in home runs and an 18% boost in scoring in the past. Kauffman Stadium is a pretty tough home run park but gives a huge boost to doubles and triples (both top three in baseball), which partially explains his three-bagger last night.
Don’t forget about this game and its double-digit total. Grabbing strong bats from there could massively separate from a field fixated on the games at Coors and Vegas.
Interested in more MLB action? Check out Polymarket and use our Polymarket promo code.
Pictured: Chris Sale
Photo Credit: Imagn
