The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Bryan Woo ($10,000) Seattle Mariners (-149) at Athletics
The series between the Mariners and A’s in Sacramento has produced just 11 runs through two games. That’s surprising, considering the Mariners traveled from the worst hitter’s park in baseball to one of the best, and plenty of their starting pitchers have rough splits on the road.
The one exception to that stat is Woo, who is better at home with a 2.29 ERA but still strong on the road at 3.33. The Athletics have struggled with lesser Mariners’ starters this week, so Woo feels like a relatively safe option.
Woo isn’t a massive strikeout arm, but his 24.3% rate is solid and supported by a 12% swinging strike rate. His upside is more based around lasting deep into games, as he’s averaging well over six innings pitched per appearance in 2025.
We have him projected as the second-best option in terms of median and ceiling but tied for the lead in Pts/Sal. He’s a solid all-around option, but I prefer him in cash games. His 50% ownership projection makes him a tough choice for GPPs.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Kyle Freeland ($6,000) Colorado Rockies (+155) at Cleveland Guardians
The other pitcher tied for the lead in Pts/Sal is the Rockies’ Kyle Freeland. He’s far from a comfortable click, as he sports a 5.24 ERA on the season and just a 16.5% strikeout rate. However, both of those numbers can be explained by his home ballpark to various degrees.
On the road, his ERA drops to 4.68 — still not great, but acceptable given his price tag. His strikeout rate also jumps a full percent, although that’s still not enough to get excited about. More important than the location is the matchup, though.
The Guardians have a 79 wRC+ against lefties on the season, good for 25th in baseball. They have some of the most extreme platoon splits of any team, with a huge difference in offensive performance based on the handedness of the opposing pitcher.
Plus, we aren’t asking for a massive score from Freeland. He’s a solid salary-saving second pitcher in all contest types.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Nathan Eovaldi ($10,500) Texas Rangers (-125) at Los Angeles Angels
Eovaldi comes in just ahead of Woo in median and ceiling projections, although that comes with an extra $500 in salary. He has both better numbers overall and a better matchup, however, making him a solid pay-up-to-be-contrarian option.
Eovaldi’s 1.50 ERA still feels unsustainable, though he’s managed to keep that number through 17 starts. His ERA indicators are in the high twos and upper threes, but at a certain point we should probably stop banking on regression, positive or negative. He also has an excellent 27.4% strikeout rate and leads our models in K Prediction.
Which is where the matchup comes in. While the Angels are a precisely league-average offense in terms of run scoring against righties, they have the second-highest strikeout rate against righties. That makes Eovaldi a relatively high variance option, as the Angels could get to him, or he could rack up double-digit punchouts.
Coupled with his ownership discount relative to Woo, he’s my preferred option for GPPs.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
With Shohei Ohtani ($7,500) serving as the starter/opening pitcher, he’s ineligible to be used as a pitcher on DraftKings today.
That creates an interesting opportunity for the Dodgers stack, since the top remaining lineup configuration checks in at a fairly cheap price tag. The downside is Ohtani could still produce much of the offense, but at least nobody else would get his points to begin with.
Plus, by rostering players around him in the batting order, you can indirectly benefit from a strong performance at the plate from Ohtani. Hitters behind him have a chance to drive him in, while those in front can score runs based on his hitting.
The Dodgers lead the slate with their 5.4-run implied total, so those runs should be somewhat plentiful. Plus, the game is in Cincinnati, the best home run park in the majors.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Cal Raleigh C ($6,300) Seattle Mariners at Athletics (Jeffrey Springs)
For the second time this week, “The Big Dumper” gets to take on a southpaw at one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball. The MLB’s home run leader put up eight DraftKings points in that scenario on Monday, but could improve on that mark today against Jeffrey Springs ($7,200)
As mentioned then, his numbers in PlateIQ are absurd:
At his price tag, you’re banking on a home run to pay it off, but the odds are pretty strong considering the matchup and ballpark.
Trent Grisham OF ($4,100) New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Zack Littell)
The Yankees are another team that’s suddenly much cheaper to stack, in their case due to Aaron Judge finding his way to the IL. The Yankees still have a solid 4.9-run total, which has to come from somewhere, and leadoff hitter Trent Grisham likely plays a part in any eventual production.
Grisham is hitting just .246 on the season but makes up for it with solid power. His 17 home runs have already tied a career high for a season and it’s still July. Plus, his 13% walk rate gives him opportunities to score if the hitters behind him do well, making him a solid all-around option.
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Pictured: Bryan Woo
Photo Credit: Getty Images
