The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Aaron Nola ($9,000) Philadelphia Phillies (-147) vs. San Francisco Giants
Despite having 10 games on the slate, it’s a relatively weak one for starting pitching. Depending on your perspective, that either makes Nola an excellent play on Wednesday or far too expensive. I’ll explain.
On the one hand, Nola is pretty clearly the best arm available in terms of talent/ability. He finished last season with a 3.57 ERA and 24% strikeout rate and has had periods of being a 30% or so strikeout rate player. It’s not a bad matchup either, with San Francisco ranking about league average in wRC+ while striking out at a high clip.
That gives Nola a chance to truly separate from the field, which is devoid of any truly elite options. If he leads the slate by four or five points, the $9,000 salary doesn’t really matter.
On the other hand, there are six pitchers within two points of Nola’s slate-leading median projection. Considering that his salary and ownership also lead the slate, he could finish as the top arm and still not help you win a GPP.
Considering his non-elite strikeout rate, I’m leaning more towards the second option personally. That makes Nola a fine cash game play but a bit thin for GPPs at his price tag.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Osvaldo Bido ($7,200) Athletics (-155) at Chicago White Sox
We have two similarly priced matchup-based value plays today, including Bido against the White Sox and Bobby Miller ($7,700) against the Rockies.
Bido is projecting slightly better overall and much better from a Pts/Sal projection, though. While the White Sox (68 wRC+ as a team) are slightly better than the Rockies (63), Bido also has much better numbers than Miller.
Since the start of 2024, he’s thrown 78.1 MLB innings, posting a solid 3.33 ERA and 3.79 xERA. His 24% strikeout rate is fairly average, but we can project better numbers given the strong matchup with the White Sox. Besides, at Bido’s price point, we don’t need a ton of upside.
The downside is that Bido has alternated between starting and coming out of the bullpen. He’s yet to last more than five innings in a game this season, which further caps his upside. It’s a bit optimistic to assume he’ll change that — or have a huge increase in strikeouts — tonight.
Still, between the lack of truly elite options and his low ownership projection, I’m not ruling Bido out for GPPs. He’s a fairly obvious cash game option, of course, but 15 or so points at his salary might be enough for tournaments, too.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Robbie Ray ($8,000) San Francisco Giants (+124) at Philadelphia Phillies
Ray stands out as an elite GPP pivot today for a few reasons. The first is that as the “B Side” of this matchup, the Vegas data favors his opponent Nola, which means most of the field will be off Ray. That makes him contrarian in his own right and gives plenty of leverage off of Nola lineups.
More importantly, when fully healthy, the 33-year-old lefty is the best strikeout pitcher on the slate. He had a 33% rate in limited action last season and topped 30% in four of his previous campaigns. No other arm on the board even comes close to those numbers.
He’s risky, though, as it’s unclear if Ray is fully healthy. He missed most of 2024 and has just a 21% K Rate so far this season. While his ERA is an excellent 2.93, his 6.06 xERA raises further questions. To his credit, he struck out seven Yankees in just four innings in his last start, so he seems to be trending upwards.
That uncertainty, coupled with a tough matchup, makes him far too thin for cash games, but he could pay off in a big way for GPPs. His ceiling projection trails only Nola’s on the slate, but he comes with an ownership and salary discount.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Seattle Mariners:
One of the reasons we don’t often see the Mariners project as a top stack is due to their home ballpark. T-Mobile Field is the best pitcher’s park in baseball by a wide margin, which limits their offensive outlook in 81 of their games a season.
Tonight they’re on the road in Cincinnati, a top-three park for hitters in baseball. That’s a massive upgrade, especially against Nick Martinez ($7,000) and his 4.40 xERA since last season.
Perhaps the best part of this stack is the price tag, with an average cost of $4,100 per player. That’s extremely cheap for a road team with a 4.5-run total and makes them a great starting point for lineups.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jorge Soler OF ($4,200) Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers (Patrick Corbin)
The Angels are my other favorite stack tonight, mostly thanks to the matchup with Patrick Corbin ($6,200). Corbin has finished each of the last four seasons with an ERA of 5.20 or higher and sits at 6.75 after his first start of 2025.
We could’ve gone with nearly any Angel, but one particular hitter stands out in PlateIQ:
That’s Soler, who had an .891 OPS against southpaws last season. Regardless, when Mike Trout ($5,900) looks like the worst player in the screenshot, you’ve got plenty of options.
Yandy Diaz 1B ($4,100) Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox (Sean Newcomb)
Diaz featured as a strong option yesterday, thanks to his leadoff spot in the Rays lineup and a good pitching matchup.
The bad news is his price has risen $200 today. The good news is the matchup is even better for Diaz specifically, as his career average and OPS are much higher against lefties like Sean Newcomb ($5,800) than against the righty he faced yesterday.
Diaz — and the rest of the Rays — are fairly underpriced for their 5.2-run total tonight. That makes him a fine one-off or part of the Rays stacks targeting their best hitters against lefties.
Marcus Semien 2B ($3,800) Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels (Jose Soriano)
Semien is in a slump to start the 2025 campaign, with a .117 batting average through 66 plate appearances. Unless there’s an undisclosed injury of some kind, that makes him an excellent buy-low option tonight.
Semien regularly saw salaries north of $5,000 last year and as high as $4,900 this season. His .125 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) is a sign he’s been massively unlucky, and his HR/FB ratio is also at a career low.
Those numbers should regress throughout the season; it’s just a matter of when. I want some exposure at his depressed salary in case it happens tonight.
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Pictured: Aaron Nola
Photo Credit: Getty Images
