The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Shohei Ohtani (R) $9,500 Los Angeles Dodgers (-221) vs. New York Mets
This will be the third start of the season for the Dodgers’ two-way superstar. He’s pitched a total of 12 innings so far this season across his two previous starts – and is yet to allow a single run. It doesn’t get much better than that, especially with both starts coming against above-average offenses (Toronto and Cleveland).
On the negative side, the strikeout rate is way down for Shohei Ohtani this season. His eight strikeouts between the two games works out to just a 17% K rate, a drastic reduction for a player with a career mark above 30%. It doesn’t seem to just be noise, either, as his swinging-strike rate has also made a notable downturn.
That’s what makes him a tricky decision for DFS. The Dodgers are unlikely to leave Ohtani out there for more than six innings, no matter how efficient he’s being, so he needs to pick up strikeouts to pay off his salary. However, it’s a relatively tough slate for pitchers tonight, so we don’t necessarily need a massive score from Ohtani to take down a GPP.
He comfortably leads all pitchers in median and ceiling projection, as well as ownership. If you think there’s another arm with a reasonable shot of keeping up with Ohtani, it would make sense to pivot for GPPs, but he’s the safest bet to lead the slate in scoring.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Spencer Arrighetti (R) $7,000 Houston Astros (-185) vs. Colorado Rockies
The 26-year-old Spencer Arrighetti is set to make his 2026 MLB debut this season after starting the campaign in AAA. There, he threw 14 total innings and finished with a 1.26 ERA and 36.4% strikeout percentage – suffice to say he’s ready for the call-up.
Arrighetti was in the majors last year and finished the season with an ERA over five and K rate under 20%. However, he was somewhat unlucky (especially in the strikeout department), and his minor league numbers this year point to him also making some significant improvements.
More importantly for us, he couldn’t ask for a better matchup in his season debut. The Rockies aren’t much better than an average AAA team offensively, especially when taken away from Coors Field. They’re implied for just 3.7 runs with the Astros as considerable favorites, which makes Arrighetti a great play at his price point.
I’m not sure how long of a leash he’ll have tonight, but at just $7,000, he doesn’t need to eat too many innings to pay off for DFS. He leads all pitchers in Pts/Sal projection by a fairly wide margin.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Jesse Scholtens (R) $7,500 Tampa Bay Rays (-120) at Chicago White Sox
The other matchup-based value option is Jesse Scholtens of the Rays, who takes on the struggling White Sox. The White Sox rank dead last in wRC+ as a team this season and strike out at the third-highest rate. Scholtens is getting his first start after throwing 4.2 scoreless innings in relief last week and should be viewed as a GPP pivot from Arrighetti, who has a similar outlook but about ten times the projected ownership.
Dylan Cease (R) $9,700 Toronto Blue Jays (-121) at Milwaukee Brewers
Cease is the equivalent GPP pivot from the much more popular Ohtani – though, of course, they could be paired together. His numbers this season compare favorably to the former MVP, but he gets a tougher matchup on paper with the Brewers, who are implied for about half a run more than the Mets against Ohtani. Cease’s 38.8% K rate this season points to much more upside, however, making him a pay-up-to-be-contrarian, boom-or-bust option for tournaments.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
We’ve got plenty of options for bats tonight, with six of the 16 teams on the slate implied for at least 4.8 runs. Atlanta sits in the middle of that group, with a 5.2-run implied total as they host the Marlins tonight.
A large part of the appeal is the value offered by this stack. With the four and five hitters both priced under $4,000 and no exorbitantly expensive players, it’s much easier to stack the Braves’ top five than most other teams with solid totals. The other selling point is the matchup.
Marlins righty Chris Paddack ($6,200) has a 6.14 ERA this season through just over 14 innings. That’s a small sample size, but he finished 2025 with a 5.35 ERA and largely has underlying numbers to support that. Atlanta is far too cheap as a whole for such a great matchup, making them an excellent option today.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jose Altuve 2B ($5,200) Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies (Jose Quintana)
Rockies starter Jose Quintana ($6,000) was pretty lucky last season with the Brewers. He finished the year with a sub-4.00 ERA in 24 starts, but his xERA was on the wrong side of 5.00, with all of his ERA indicators in the high fours/low fives range. Expect some major regression for him this season, as he now plays home games at the toughest pitcher’s park in baseball. He’s in Houston tonight, but that still doesn’t make him a great pitcher by any stretch.
I want to target the Astros in general tonight, but specifically those with good numbers against lefties like Quintana. As always, PlateIQ provides some insight:
Altuve has the best numbers outside of Yordan Alvarez ($6,200) but at a significant discount. I’d love to roster them both, obviously, but Altuve represents a much easier option for salary reasons.
Trent Grisham OF ($3,800) New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels (Jack Kochanowicz)
The Yankees’ 5.9-run implied total leads the evening slate on Wednesday, as they look to rebound from a disappointing 7-1 loss to the Angels on Tuesday. Just like yesterday, the weather is pretty favorable for bats, with about a 10% boost to scoring and a 20% boost to home runs over the already-strong Park Factors in the Bronx.
The top six hitters in the Yankees lineup are all projecting for double-digit points tonight, so you really can’t go wrong. However, by far the best value belongs to the leadoff man, Grisham, who is second among all hitters in Pts/Sal projection tonight (behind only a minimum-priced punt option).
Stacking the Yankees in any form is obviously a solid option tonight, but if you just want some exposure without breaking the bank, Grisham is an excellent one-off play.
Nick Kurtz 1B ($5,200) Athletics vs. Texas Rangers (Kumar Rocker)
Rangers starter Kumar Rocker ($6,700) was once considered a top prospect, but across three seasons of partial big-league action, it hasn’t really come together for the 26-year-old. That’s continued this year, with a 4.50 ERA and ERA predictors all somewhere in the fours.
Which makes this a tough spot for him tonight in Sacramento, the best hitters’ park in the AL. The A’s are implied for around five runs but certainly have the upside for more. While I’m interested in stacking them if possible, Kurtz is my favorite option. Rocker’s career wOBA allowed is about 60 points higher against lefties, and Kurtz has a career average of .318 against righties. He also hit 36 home runs in 117 games last season, giving him plenty of upside.
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Pictured: Shohei Ohtani
Photo Credit: Imagn
