The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Shohei Ohtani (R) $10,700 Los Angeles Dodgers (-228) at Houston Astros
The theme of today’s pitching options is “good pitcher facing a good team,” and nobody exemplifies that more than Shohei Ohtani. The reigning MVP comes into the game having allowed just two earned runs in 25 innings while striking out more than ten batters per nine innings. However, he’s facing an Astros lineup with a top-five wRC+ both overall and against righties.
The general rule of thumb is that good pitching beats good hitting. While that mostly works out, Ohtani’s exorbitant price tag makes it more of a decision. He leads our median and ceiling projections, but at $10,700 he doesn’t have an elite Pts/Sal projection.
What he does have is by far the best Vegas data on the slate, with the best moneyline and the Astros implied for the lowest total of any team. That makes him a fairly safe option at worst. With Houston also striking out at a fairly low rate, I’m not sure Ohtani can do enough to justify his cost and ownership for GPPs, but he’s a great cash game choice.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Jameson Taillon (R) $7,600 Chicago Cubs (-166) vs. Cincinnati Reds
The conditions at Wrigley Field couldn’t be any more different than they were yesterday, when we had strong winds blowing straight out. Tonight, per WeatherEdge, we’ve got conditions that cut home runs by more than 50% while dropping total scoring 7.5%.
That makes Jameson Taillon an intriguing play against the Reds. They’re a bottom-five offense against righties in both wRC+ and strikeout rate, with their raw numbers bolstered by an extremely home run-friendly home ballpark. With the conditions tonight likely to limit those heavily, they could struggle to produce offense.
Taillon hasn’t been great this season, with a 4.41 ERA and a strikeout rate barely over 20%, but the combination of matchup and weather could be enough to make him a strong play. Especially considering the price tags on the other pitchers, the savings he offers could go a long way to making the rest of your lineup work. He leads all pitchers in Pts/Sal projection tonight.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Jacob deGrom (R) $9,700 Texas Rangers (+109) at New York Yankees
deGrom has an even tougher matchup than Ohtani, facing the second-best offense by wRC+ in baseball tonight. However, the Yankees strike out more than the Astros, while deGrom has a higher strikeout and swinging strike rate than Ohtani. Since he’s also $1,000 cheaper and projecting for lower ownership, he’s my preferred GPP option at the high end of the salary scale, though he isn’t without risk.
Freddy Peralta (R) $8,300 New York Mets (-164) at Colorado Rockies
It’s pretty likely that the Mets-Rockies game in Colorado gets called due to rain/weather tonight, but if it doesn’t, we have some tremendous pitching weather. The game-time temperature is just 36 degrees with winds blowing in, which is more than enough to override the Coors Field Park Factor. Don’t roster Peralta if you won’t be around close to lock, but on the off chance this one plays, you would get a massive ownership discount thanks to the weather.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
With the game at Coors Field highly likely to be rained out, I took the liberty of selecting the highest-rated stack not featuring the Mets, which is this Dodgers build.
The interesting thing about the Dodgers stack is that the lack of Ohtani in the lineup – they’ve been allowing him to focus simply on pitching on days he starts – actually makes it somewhat affordable. The Dodgers’ 5.3-run team total is the best among teams likely to actually play, and at roughly $4,500 per player you can actually fit them without having to completely punt at pitcher.
They’re taking on the Astros’ Peter Lambert ($8,000), who has performed surprisingly well since returning from pitching in Japan last season, but the fact that he’s a 29-year-old journeyman who couldn’t land an MLB job last year is somewhat telling.
Plus, it’s the Dodgers, one of the best offenses in baseball even without their superstar in the lineup. They’re an excellent stack in all contest types.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Miguel Vargas 3B ($4,800) Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels (Sam Aldegheri)
One of the reasons I’m interested in the White Sox tonight is that their game in Los Angeles is one of the few on the slate that features both hitter-friendly weather and a very low likelihood of rain delays or a postponement.
The other is the solid splits against lefties for a few of the Sox hitters, with Vargas standing out the most in PlateIQ:
While his rookie teammate Munetaka Murakami ($5,700) has even better numbers, they’re based on a small sample size, and he’s also a lefty, so they probably aren’t sustainable, while Vargas seems to be the real deal.
Geraldo Perdomo SS ($3,800) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Bubba Chandler)
The Diamondbacks are projecting well as a team tonight, in large part thanks to a winnable matchup against Pirates rookie Bubba Chandler ($7,200), who comes into the game with a 4.97 ERA and worse underlying numbers this season.
The stars in the lineup are Ketel Marte ($5,300) and Corbin Carroll ($5,600), but they come with steep price tags. Perdomo gets to hit in front of both of them and is a much more affordable $3,800. That’s not bad for an above-average hitter with a bit of stolen base and home run upside, making him a cheap way to get exposure to the Diamondbacks.
Carlos Correa SS ($3,900) Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Shoehei Ohtani)
For larger-field GPPs, I want some exposure to the Astros lineup in any rosters I’m building without Ohtani. Given the latter’s likely massive ownership, you get massive leverage from any production from Houston hitters since not only would you gain points but your opponents would lose them.
Fortunately, we’ve got plenty of options from the Astros, who, as referenced above, are a top-five offense in baseball at the moment. I’m listing Correa here since he’s fairly cheap and the leadoff batter, but there are solid choices up and down the lineup based on your salary preferences.
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Pictured: Shohei Ohtani
Photo Credit: Imagn
