The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R) $9,500) Los Angeles Dodgers (-295) vs. San Francisco Giants
The prevailing strategy on Tuesday might be to just see how many Dodgers you can jam into your lineup. Los Angeles comes into the game with the best Vegas data on both sides of the ball – they have both the highest implied team total and the lowest implied opponent total, as well as the best moneyline odds.
The opponent total is in large part due to Yoshinobu Yamamoto taking the mound. The Dodgers rotation is comprised almost entirely of players who would be the ace for most teams, including Yamamoto. Through seven starts, he has a 3.09 ERA and a 23.5% strikeout rate. The latter number is somewhat unlucky, as he finished 2025 with a 29.4% strikeout rate despite a lower swinging-strike rate than he has now.
On the negative side of the regression discussion, his ERA is a bit lower than all of his ERA indicators, which range from about a half-run to a full run higher. That’s not a major issue – and is somewhat a byproduct of a lower strikeout rate – but is still worth noting.
On top of all that, the Giants are a bottom-five offense by wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and the weather is somewhat favorable to pitchers. Outside of salary constraints, it’s really hard to make a case for fading Yamamoto, who leads our median and ceiling projections while tying for the Pts/Sal lead.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Brandon Sproat (R) $6,300 Milwaukee Brewers (-130) vs. San Diego Padres
One of the necessities of loading up on Dodgers is finding cheap players elsewhere in the lineup. The obvious spot is your second starting pitcher, which is where Brandon Sproat comes in.
At $6,300 he’s one of the cheapest arms on the slate, which makes sense given that his ERA is approaching six. The 2023 second-round pick isn’t actually that bad, though. The biggest number that jumps out is his HR/FB ratio. At 18.9%, it’s nearly double the league average, and that’s a number that typically regresses to the mean at some point.
He also gave up 11 earned runs across his first two appearances of the season and just nine earned over his last five, with the latter stretch probably a closer reflection of his ability. While the Padres aren’t an especially easy matchup, their 94 wRC+ against righties ranks 24th in the MLB, so it’s a good chance to keep some momentum going.
The Padres’ 4.1-run implied total is fairly low given how cheap Sproat is, and he’s got a solid shot at picking up the win bonus with the Brewers favored. He probably won’t “break the slate” with a massive score, but cracking double digits at his salary might be enough to win some tournaments. He leads our Pts/Sal projection for pitchers under $8,700 in salary.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Jack Flaherty (R) $7,300 Detroit Tigers (+125) at New York Mets
Right behind Sproat in Pts/Sal projection is the consistently inconsistent Jack Flaherty. Flaherty has three starts of at least 18 DraftKings points and five starts of eight or fewer points, with nothing in between. The Mets are the second-worst offense in baseball against righties, though, despite all their theoretical talent. That gives us a better chance at getting “Good Flaherty” tonight, though it’s far from a guarantee, making him a GPP-only option.
Tatsuya Imai (R) $6,500 Houston Astros (+126) vs. Seattle Mariners
If you really want to get crazy for tournaments, Tatsuya Imai is an interesting option. He’s returning from a stint on the injured list after getting blown up for three earned runs in just 0.1 innings as he takes on the Mariners team he was facing in that start. Imai had a 27.8% strikeout rate and 1.92 ERA last season in Japan, so if his poor performance this season was due to an injury, this could be a perfect buy-low opportunity. With his ownership projection effectively at zero, he’s a huge leverage opportunity.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The top Dodgers stack is actually somewhat reasonably priced by their standards, despite a slate-leading 5.8-run implied total. They typically have a total north of five against all but the game’s elite pitchers, and it’s an especially strong matchup tonight.
They’re facing the Giants’ Adrian Houser ($5,500), who comes into the game with a 6.19 ERA. Unless he’s a big Rey Mysterio fan, that’s probably a pretty big disappointment, though his ERA indicators are “only” in the low-to-mid-five range.
The real problem for Houser has been his numbers against lefties. He’s held right-handed hitters to just a .191 batting average this season, but lefties are more than double that with a .386 mark. That’s a massive problem against a Dodgers team with three left-handed bats in their first five hitters – and they have five lefties overall if you’re committed to really leaning into the splits.
I’ll be doing the latter in a few of my lineups tonight, as it saves salary and should be a bit more unique than the top Dodgers stack, but I’ll have some of that too.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Yandy Diaz 1B/3B ($4,900) Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays (Patrick Corbin)
We’ve got a fun slate for hitters tonight, since on top of the Dodgers (and another team with a big total we’ll touch on shortly), we also have a Patrick Corbin ($6,900) start. The man we love to fade actually has a 3.60 ERA this year, but I don’t believe that to be sustainable, as indicated by his 6.20 xERA and career-worst marks in strikeout rate.
Naturally, I turned to PlateIQ to find which Tampa hitters have the best numbers against lefties:
That’s not a ton of options, but Diaz and Junior Caminero ($5,400) are a solid mini stack if you have the salary, and I want at least some exposure against Corbin.
Tyler Soderstrom OF ($4,400) Athletics vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Andre Pallante)
I’m anticipating a long night (metaphorically) for Andre Pallante ($7,200) as he travels to Sutter Health Park in Sacramento to take on the Athletics. Since being used for MLB play, Sutter Health only barely trails Coors Field for the best hitter’s park in baseball, with Pallante’s profile ill-equipped for the challenge.
He has a low strikeout rate (17.6%) plus above-average hard-hit and barrel rates. He’s also bad against lefties, with a .334 wOBA allowed compared to .308 against righties, which is why I’m highlighting Soderstrom specifically – but there are plenty of options in an A’s lineup that is implied for 5.6 runs tonight.
Ivan Herrera C ($3,800) St. Louis Cardinals at Athletics (Jeffrey Springs)
Of course, the visiting Cardinals also get the benefit of the excellent hitter’s park, as they take on Athletics left-hander Jeffrey Springs ($8,300). St. Louis isn’t a great team against southpaws, with a slightly below-average 97 wRC+ as a team. That makes me less interested in stacking them than the home team.
However, Herrera has excellent numbers against lefties in his career, with an .886 OPS. He’s a well above-average hitter in general rather than a lefty specialist, making him a massive value at just $3,800 while playing a position that typically doesn’t have many great options.
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Pictured: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Photo Credit: Imagn
