The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Cam Schlittler (R) $10,500 New York Yankees (-247) vs. Cleveland Guardians
That the Guardians lead their division despite ranking 24th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching says a lot about the state of the AL Central – and perhaps the American League itself. Offense has been hard to come by across the Central, which is good news for the Yankees’ Schlittler.
He rolls into Tuesday evening with Cy Young-worthy numbers: a 1.50 ERA and a strikeout rate just below 30%. Both of those marks feel a bit lucky given his underlying data, but it doesn’t seem like the Guardians would be the team to impose some negative regression. While they strike out at a low rate, their inability to put runs on the board should allow Schlittler to keep his sterling numbers intact.
I do worry a bit about his upside, though, given the low K rate from Cleveland. As the most expensive pitcher on an 11-game slate, you need a ceiling game out of Schlittler to take down a GPP. I’m treating him as an extremely dependable cash game/small-field contest option today, but I’m unlikely to have much of him in larger GPPs, especially at his high ownership.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Grayson Rodriguez (R) $6,500 Los Angeles Angels (-162) vs. Colorado Rockies
The strategy of “roster a starter against the Rockies on the road” was solid yesterday despite Colorado’s nine total runs. Only three of those (two earned) came against the starting pitcher Jose Soriano, who also struck out seven before being chased midway through the fifth inning.
While that wasn’t ideal given Soriano’s price tag, we’ve got a different value proposition on our hands with Rodriguez tonight. He’s been awful this season, with a 7.53 ERA, but the Rockies are also bad, ranking 26th in wRC+ against righties after last night’s explosion moved them up from last place. Rodriguez has significantly better ERA predictors in the mid-to-high fours, so this could be a chance to right the ship for him.
It’s telling that Colorado is implied for fewer than four runs, a strong sign that the market thinks “bad pitching beats bad hitting,” at least in this case. With the Angels also significant moneyline favorites, we’d usually expect their starter to be in the $8,000 range.
That makes Rodriguez a somewhat obvious, if risky, value play today. The Rockies have shown enough life offensively that my confidence level in Rodriguez dominating is somewhat low, but at his salary, it’s also worth the risk.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Kyle Harrison (L) $10,200 Milwaukee Brewers (-210) vs. San Francisco Giants
Harrison has virtually identical numbers to Schlittler on the season, with a 1.57 ERA but higher ERA predictors and a strikeout rate just under 30%. He also has a similar matchup, with the Giants featuring a slightly lower wRC+ but a slightly higher strikeout rate against lefties than the Guardians against righties. Combined with a slight ownership and salary discount, that makes Harrison my preferred GPP option over Schlittler, though it’s a fairly close call.
Logan Gilbert (R) $9,000 Seattle Mariners (-149) vs. New York Mets
Whether or not Gilbert is worth $9,000 – and the slate’s highest ownership – tonight really depends on your opinion of the Mets’ offense. They’re tied for last in wRC+ against righties this season with a middle-of-the-pack strikeout rate. However, their lineup is filled with players who have historically been much better than that, so treating them as a bottom-tier offense feels wrong. Still, Gilbert has been strong with a 3.69 ERA, and this game is in the best pitcher’s park in baseball. Plus, he’s a significant discount from Harrison/Schlittler, so it’s probably worth taking a chance.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
One of the arguments for rostering Gilbert over one of the pricier pitchers – and possibly pairing him with a budget option like Rodriguez – is the excellent projection on the Dodgers stack tonight. Their star-studded lineup is always expensive, but they’re the only team implied for five runs tonight, so they could truly be a difference-maker.
It’s not an especially appealing matchup against Michael Soroka ($7,800), who comes in with a 3.25 ERA and similar ERA predictors. However, the Dodgers are the best lineup against righties (and overall) by a comfortable margin, making them effectively matchup-proof.
They’re clearly the safest pick to lead the slate in scoring, though the question is whether they lead it by enough to justify paying more than $5,000 per player for the stack. There are a few teams implied for just under the Dodgers’ total but with significantly cheaper price points.
I’m viewing them similarly to Schlittler, in that they’re a very safe/reliable option but somewhat unlikely to win you a GPP, especially with significant ownership on the top hitters.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Sal Stewart 3B ($4,800) Cincinnati Reds (-125) vs. Kansas City Royals (Noah Cameron)
One of the other potential upside spots on the slate is the game in Cincinnati, since Great American Ball Park boosts home runs by 20% over the league average, second-best in baseball over the past three seasons. The Reds also have a solid home run matchup against Noah Cameron ($7,300), a lefty with an above-average flyball rate and a low strikeout rate. Cameron’s 7.8% HR/FB ratio is well below league average and almost certainly a factor of playing home games in a park that cuts homers 17%.
Using PlateIQ, I looked to see which Reds bats had the best numbers against lefties and came up with Stewart pretty easily:
As you can see, he’s not the only strong option, though, and I’m a fan of mini stacks featuring the Reds power hitters.
Bobby Witt SS ($5,500) Kansas City Royals at Cincinnati Reds (Andrew Abbott)
Obviously, the Royals also get the benefit of a massive Park Factor bump relative to their home games, especially in terms of home runs. We don’t have as many solid options to choose from in their lineup, but Witt is always a solid option. He’s hitting .287 with nine home runs and 17 steals through 60 games, with his best work coming against lefties.
His average is 50 points higher against lefties than against righties this season, with a smaller but directionally similar split throughout his career. That makes the matchup with Andrew Abbott ($6,300) appealing, especially since Abbott has a 5.28 ERA at home this season. Witt’s price tag should keep his ownership down to an extent, but he has just as much upside as the Ohtanis of the world.
Ketel Marte 2B ($5,300) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Eric Lauer)
Anytime the Diamondbacks face a left-handed pitcher, it’s worth looking into Ketel Marte. Marte is a well above-average hitter overall, but he has drastic splits depending on which side the opposing pitcher throws from. This season, he has an .868 OPS against lefties and a .745 OPS against righties, and that split has been more than 100 points throughout his career.
That the lefty in question is the struggling Eric Lauer ($5,800) is obviously a huge help as well. Lauer has a 5.95 ERA in 2026, with his ERA predictors all in a similar range. Stacking Arizona in general might be the move tonight, since they’re considerably cheaper than the opposing Dodgers but are implied for a similar total against a much worse opposing pitcher.
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Pictured: Cam Schlittler
Photo Credit: Imagn
