The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Hunter Brown ($11,000) Houston Astros (-201) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Were it not for the generational season being turned in by Tarik Skubal, Hunter Brown would be the obvious AL Cy Young candidate.
His 1.82 ERA is actually better than Skubal’s, and his 32.1% K rate is the third best in the majors. That’s a huge step forward for Brown, who struggled early in 2024 before turning in a solid second half. It’s also paid dividends in DFS, with a 25 PPG average on DraftKings this season.
That’s probably a fair target for him tonight, as he takes on a Guardians team that ranks slightly below average in run production against righties but also strikes out at a low rate. That latter point caps his upside a bit, since he’s likely to finish around seven or eight strikeouts and not challenge for double digits.
With his relatively high ownership projection also a factor, he’s an excellent cash game play but not my favorite option for GPPs.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Brayan Bello ($6,600) Boston Red Sox (-245) vs. Colorado Rockies
I rostered Red Sox starter Richard Fitts yesterday, with the bulk of the logic being that he was facing the Rockies away from Coors Field. Fitts came in at under 5% ownership and helped me take down a small GPP — so naturally I’m going back to that well with another Boston starter.
You could read yesterday’s article and mentally replace “Fitts” with “Bello,” and most of the logic would hold true. Bello has similar underlying numbers, with a solid (3.42) ERA but a strikeout rate in the teens. With the Rockies striking out nearly 30% of the time on the road, he has a reasonable shot of upping that number considerably tonight.
Plus, at just $6,600, he doesn’t need a ton of punch-outs to pay off at his salary. He’s a heavy favorite against a team implied for just 3.6 runs, so at bare minimum he’s an elite floor play.
The ceiling is obviously there as well, though I highly doubt we’ll see the limited ownership we got on Fitts this time around. Even so, he’s an elite GPP option who leads the slate in Pts/Sal projection by a fairly wide margin.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Logan Gilbert ($9,500) Seattle Mariners (+112) at New York Yankees
The two top pitchers on the slate in terms of median and ceiling — Brown and Gilbert — profile as fairly clear cash game vs. GPP options.
Gilbert has as much ceiling as anybody on the slate. His 36.8% strikeout rate through ten starts would lead the majors if he qualified for the innings minimum, and it’s supported by his 17.7% swinging strike rate. However, he also comes with a ton of risk. That’s due to a matchup with the Yankees, who still have the highest overall wRC+ in baseball despite their recent offensive struggles.
On the plus side, they also strike out at a top 10 rate and are on the wrong side of their platoon splits against the right-handed Gilbert. However, with a 4.9-run implied total, it wouldn’t be surprising if they knocked Gilbert around a bit.
All of the above makes him an extremely high variance option, but that’s a solid profile for GPPs. While he has a slightly better Pts/Sal projection than Brown, he’s still a bit too risky to consider in cash games. Keep an eye on our weather report as well, since there’s a chance this one gets delayed due to rain. The likeliest outcome is rain hitting later in the game after Gilbert is already pulled, though.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
Unsurprisingly, the Red Sox are again the top stack of the day. They were in this section yesterday and lived up to the billing, scoring nine runs as a team despite extremely cheap price tags.
A couple of their top bats were frustratingly pinch hit for, but not before they were able to provide a huge return relative to their price point.
It’s a similar situation today, with Boston’s team total of 5.6 runs leading the slate and a strong matchup against Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland ($5,000).
It will again be important to keep an eye on our lineups page as we approach lock, since Boston might alter their order a bit against a lefty. Jarren Duran ($4,500) came in as a pinch hitter yesterday but probably doesn’t get two days off in a row, so it’s worth keeping an eye on where he’s placed.
Either way, Boston is an obvious top choice today, and they correlate nicely with Bello picking up a win bonus. That’s worth more (relatively speaking) at his price range than it is for a more expensive pitcher.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Byron Buxton OF ($6,100) Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs (Shota Imanaga)
Most of the field is going to ignore the Twins — and by extension, Buxton — today. That’s because of the matchup with Shota Imanaga ($9,000), the Cubs lefty who brings a 2.78 ERA into the contest.
While I’m also not stacking the Twins, the conditions in Minnesota are strong for bats, with a 15% boost to home runs and a 9.5% boost to total scoring, according to Weather Edge.
Which leads me to Buxton, who stands out against lefties in PlateIQ:
Sean Murphy C ($3,500) Atlanta Braves at Athletics (Jeffrey Springs)
One team I am interested in stacking (or mini-stacking) is the Braves. They’re in Sacramento tonight, where the Park Factor is identical to Coors Field based on 2025 data.
They’re facing Athletics’ lefty Jeffrey Springs ($6,300), who has an ERA and underlying numbers in the low 4s. While Atlanta doesn’t hit lefties particularly well as a team, Murphy has a .509 slugging% against them this year.
His average is low, however, making him a boom-or-bust option. With the tiny dimensions of the field in Sacramento, the boom is more likely than usual. Plus, he’s fairly cheap and at a thin catcher position.
Nathan Lukes OF ($3,100) Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox (Aaron Civale)
For the second day in a row, Lukes is the highest-rated hitter in our tournament model. He paid off that projection yesterday, with a two-run home run and a walk against the White Sox.
The thesis is similar today, as Lukes is leading off for the Blue Jays against a weak White Sox starter, with Toronto implied for five runs. He’s roughly $1,000 too cheap based on those factors and his production this season, so he’s a strong play in all contest types.
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Pictured: Hunter Brown
Photo Credit: Getty Images
