The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Jacob deGrom ($9,800) Texas Rangers (-225) vs. Athletics
For the first time since 2019, Jacob deGrom has topped 100 innings pitched in a season. 2025 has been a true comeback year for the oft-injured righty, who is turning in a vintage performance.
He’s managed to strike a perfect balance between staying healthy and performing, with a 2.32 ERA through 19 starts while averaging just under six innings pitched per outing. That’s come at a slight cost to his strikeout rate, though, which at 26.2% is his lowest since 2016.
However, that’s still a solid mark when compared to standard pitchers and is a worthy compromise considering how well he’s done to keep runs off the board. Today he draws an Athletics team that ranks roughly league average in both wRC+ and strikeout rate, which suggests deGrom’s likeliest outcome is something close to his 20.8 PPG average on DraftKings.
That would be good for the highest projected median on the board, which is where we have deGrom tonight. Since his salary is just third on the slate, he’s also a solid value for tighter builds as well.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code FL55.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Logan Gilbert ($9,200) Seattle Mariners (-125) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
We talked yesterday about how much of a boost to pitchers T-Mobile Park is, with an average run total 17% lower than the league average. That worked out for the visiting Brandon Woodruff yesterday, and now the Mariners are sending their ace to the mound.
Gilbert, like much of the Mariners staff, has drastic home/road splits on the season. In Seattle, he sports a 2.29 ERA, and away from home that mark jumps to 4.91. His strikeout rate is much better at home as well, an elite 39.4% — though his 30.8% mark on the road is nothing to sneeze at either. Gilbert doesn’t have the innings to qualify for the leaderboard, but his 35.3% overall mark would lead the league.
That obviously makes him a strong fantasy option, even in a slightly below-average matchup against the Brewers. Milwaukee’s total is just 3.2 runs tonight, 0.1 runs off the lowest mark on the slate. That, plus Gilbert’s still-reasonable salary, makes him the clear leader in Pts/Sal.
While it would be nice to find a truly cheap option somewhere on the slate, it’s hard to ignore the value on Gilbert, particularly in cash games. It’s hard to pair him with other top options, but it might be worthwhile.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Jacob Misiorowski ($10,300) Milwaukee Brewers (+105) at Seattle Mariners
Just like last night, both pitchers in Seattle are poised for a big game. The visitor is rookie phenom Jacob Misorowski, who’s putting up Paul Skenes-esque numbers as this year’s rookie sensation.
Misiorowski hit a five-figure salary in just his fourth big league start, but he’s lived up to his price tag. He has a positive Plus/Minus in four of his five appearances, including a one-run, 12-strikeout, six-inning start against the Dodgers before the All-Star Break.
The risk with Misiorowski is that Milwaukee looks to limit his workload at some point in the regular season. Thanks to an 11-game winning streak, the Brewers now have the best record in baseball and would love to have him available for the playoffs.
Between the majors and minors, he’s now thrown 89 innings this season, and he’s never topped 97.1 as a professional. My intuition is he gets a few more “normal” starts before any severe restriction, but it’s a risk that the tapering begins now.
If he gets a full workload, he could easily post the highest score on the slate. That makes him an interesting GPP option tonight, particularly at his low projected ownership.
If you’re craving more MLB DFS or betting tools, be sure to check out one of our most powerful tools on the site—PlateIQ.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals:
The Cardinals will likely continue to appear in this section for the duration of their series at Coors Field, and today they once again have the highest implied total on the slate at 6.8 runs. Their six runs yesterday felt like a disappointment from a fantasy perspective, but that’s more a reflection of sky-high expectations than a true bad game.
The matchup tonight is about as favorable as possible, as they take on righty Bradley Blalock ($4,500). He brings a 9.97 ERA through 21.2 innings this season, with his underlying numbers all in the fives or higher.
The Cardinals are interesting from a strategy standpoint, since the top pitchers on the slate are all fairly high priced. You’ll need at least one cheap arm to fit this stack, though the 6-9 hitters from St. Louis are an interesting alternative.
My guess is the lack of pitching value keeps ownership fairly reasonable, so I want exposure to the top stack in at least some of my lineups.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Click here to find out how SimLabs can elevate your MLB DFS game, and watch the video below.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Cam Smith OF ($3,700) Houston Astros at Arizona Diamondbacks (Eduardo Rodriguez)
Eduardo Rodriguez ($7,700) has not been the pitcher Arizona hoped he would be when signing him prior to the 2024 season. For the second straight season, he’s sporting an ERA in the fives, with only slightly better underlying numbers.
As such, the Astros are in an interesting cheap stack tonight, with a 4.9-run total. Especially their hitters that have good splits against lefties. Fortunately, PlateIQ allows us to find those at a glance:
While it’s a small sample size, the best of those is rookie outfielder Cam Smith. He’s also too cheap for his leadoff spot in the lineup, providing some much-needed salary relief even outside of Astros stacks.
Seiya Suzuki OF ($5,100) Chicago Cubs vs. Kansas City Royals (Rich Hill)
Somehow, 45-year-old Rich Hill ($6,000) is back in the big leagues in 2025. The Royals are calling him up for a spot start tonight in Chicago, where Hill began his big league career more than 20 years ago.
I’m not optimistic that he’ll be any better than the 5.41 ERA he posted the last time he started an MLB game — he was used exclusively in relief across four appearances in 2024. Especially against a tough Cubs lineup that features some lefty mashers like Suzuki.
Suzuki has a .907 OPS against lefties this season, and the Cubs are implied for 5.7 runs. It’s a great spot if you can find the salary.
Heliot Ramos OF ($4,100) San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves (Davis Daniel)
The Giants play in the second-best pitchers park in baseball, which makes it hard to target their bats for DFS — until they head out on the road.
They’re in Atlanta tonight, where the weather is hot and humid with winds blowing (gently) out. That makes this the perfect time to load up on some underpriced hitters, with my favorite being Ramos. They’re collectively very cheap for a team implied for 4.9 runs, so stacks are firmly in play as well.
Interested in more MLB action? Check out Fanatics Sportsbook and use our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.
Pictured: Jacob deGrom
Photo Credit: Imagn
