The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Zach Wheeler ($10,500) Philadelphia Phillies (-103) at Atlanta Braves
There are multiple very strong arms on the evening slate tonight — with even more available on the early and all-day slates — but Wheeler edges them out in terms of median and ceiling projection in our models. The Phillies’ ace is taking on a Braves offense that’s still without their best player and is implied for just 3.7 runs.
Wheeler’s ERA since the start of 2024 sits at an elite 2.45, which is part of the reason for the Braves’ minimal team total. He also has a rock-solid 29% strikeout rate during that time period, giving him plenty of upside. His K Prediction trails only his opposing starter (more on him shortly) on today’s slate.
Wheeler’s slate-high salary should keep his ownership relatively reasonable as well, making him an interesting option on a big slate. His upside relative to his salary is somewhat capped by his price point, though, so I’m more interested in him for cash games. It’s fairly unlikely he has a disappointing game, making him a safe choice if you can find the salary.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code FL55.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Freddy Peralata ($7,800) Milwaukee Brewers (-160) at Colorado Rockies
We haven’t had to deal with Coors Field on many main slates yet this season, but the issue is being forced on Tuesday. We all know the impact that the Rockies’ home stadium has on the game, historically boosting offense by about 25%. However, it’s a little more complicated this season.
That’s because the Rockies’ offense is terrible. Not a single hitter in their projected lineup had an above-average wRC+ last season, and they have scored just 30 runs through nine games this season, with 12 of them coming against the Athletics on Sunday.
Peralta historically has a high swinging strike and strikeout rate, which limits the concern about the thin air at Coors Field. It feels weird to pay his moderately high price when the opposing team is implied for more than four runs, but there’s a good chance any offense from the Rockies comes primarily against the bullpen.
Peralta comes at a steep discount relative to his salaries so far this season and leads our projections in Pts/Sal by a solid margin. I would understand being wary of him in cash games, but he’s probably safe enough in this matchup.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Chris Sale ($9,300) Atlanta Braves (-117) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The other side of the Braves/Phillies matchup features Sale, who’s projecting just behind Wheeler for the top spot on the day. Sale and the Braves have slightly better Vegas data, and he’s also coming in at a $1,200 discount.
Due to that, we’re showing Sale as likely to be the more popular option today. However, I’m still looking at him as the better GPP play, as his upside-to-cost ratio is considerably higher — but he’s a bit riskier. Sale was the better strikeout pitcher than Wheeler last season, and his swinging strike rate backs those numbers up. He leads the slate in K Prediction, but the Phillies’ offense has been significantly better than the Braves’ to start the year.
The Philadelphia lineup is packed with hitters on the stronger side of their platoon split against lefties, so there’s a chance this could get bad in a hurry for Sale. Not a huge chance, of course, but probably more risk than Wheeler presents.
For that reason, I’ll probably look elsewhere in cash games but load up on the reigning Cy Young winner in GPPs.
If you’re craving more MLB DFS or betting tools, be sure to check out one of our most powerful tools on the site—PlateIQ.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers:
The flip side of the Coors Field discussion from earlier is the Brewers’ offense. They also get to play in the best hitter’s park in baseball while not being plagued with the “bad at hitting” issues the Rockies suffer from.
This Brewers lineup features a few players we’re interested in regardless of the ballpark, especially in a plus matchup with Kyle Freeland ($5,000). He’s finished each of the last two seasons with ERA and FIP numbers of 4.90 or higher.
Outside of the price, I don’t have anything bad to say about this stack, and it’s worth it to find the salary to pay up for it or some alternate Brewers stack with cheaper options.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Click here to find out how SimLabs can elevate your MLB DFS game and watch the video below.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Casey Schmitt 1B/2B ($2,100) San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds (Nick Lodolo)
Given the salary constraints around both the best pitchers and the Brewers stack, I went digging around in PlateIQ to find a cheap bat:
Those are solid numbers against lefties from Schmitt, albeit with a pretty small sample size. Still, he’s hitting in the middle of the order for a team implied for four runs, and he’s priced nearly at the minimum. That’s enough for me in the context of this slate.
Yandy Diaz ($4,000) Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels (Kyle Hendricks)
Yandy Diaz is another hitter who’s underpriced relative to his lineup spot and his team’s outlook. The Rays’ 4.9-run total trails only the Brewers on Monday’s slate, and Diaz is projected to lead off for the Rays.
Unfortunately, both he and the Brewers’ Rhys Hoskins are exclusively eligible at first base, so it’s impossible to play them together. The upside of that is that Diaz’s ownership should be held down, and pivoting from Hoskins to elsewhere in the Milwaukee lineup would further increase how contrarian your team is.
I’d try to stick with Hoskins for cash games, but making the pivot for large-field GPPs makes a lot of sense.
Seiya Suzuki OF ($5,200) Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers (Patrick Corbin)
I couldn’t let this slate pass me by without mentioning the option to roster hitters against Corbin, who got called up to the majors over the weekend. Corbin is coming off four consecutive seasons of a 5.20 ERA or worse, which creates plenty of fantasy scoring against him.
I went with Suzuki as the top option thanks to his splits against lefties, but really, the whole Cubs lineup is in play. The weather at Wrigley isn’t doing bats any favors, but it might not matter with Corbin on the mound.
Interested in more MLB action? Check out the pick’ems on Underdog Fantasy with Underdog promo code LABS.
Pictured: Rhys Hoskins (12)
Photo Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images
