The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Shohei Ohtani (R) $10,500 Los Angeles Dodgers (-297) vs. Miami Marlins
It’s an interesting pitching slate, with a handful of options all projecting between 15 and 20 median points on DraftKings, with their projections roughly aligning with their prices. There are also some cheaper, high-upside options that could be fun for GPPs, but we’ll get to those shortly.
The fairly obvious top play is the always-reliable Shohei Ohtani, who has allowed just one earned run through 24 innings pitched this season. He has a solid 27.2% strikeout rate and has thrown precisely six innings in all four of his 2026 starts. The Marlins have the lowest implied total on the slate, and the Dodgers are the heaviest favorite on the day.
The drawback is that the field is well aware of all those factors, and we’re projecting Ohtani for more than 40% ownership. We can live with that amount of chalk if he finishes close to his 34-point ceiling, but probably not enough if he sticks closer to his median projection. For that reason, I view him as a very safe cash game play, but I’ll be chasing some lesser-owned options for GPPs.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Jose Soriano (R) $8,600 Los Angeles Angels (-135) at Chicago White Sox
With some reasonably cheap top stacks, we don’t need to save a ton of salary on pitchers, which is why Jose Soriano makes sense as a “budget” option. At $8,600 he’s not especially cheap, but he brings a solid mix of safety and upside as he takes on a mediocre White Sox offense.
Soriano, like Ohtani, has allowed just one run this season. It’s even more impressive since he’s thrown 37.2 innings over six starts, with a strikeout rate north of 30%. However, his underlying numbers suggest he’s been a bit lucky on both fronts, with a 2.73 xERA and a swinging-strike rate that points to his strikeouts settling in the upper-20% range.
Those are still borderline-elite numbers, so the $8,600 price tag is too cheap. Especially considering Chicago ranks 23rd overall and 26th against righties in wRC+. They aren’t bad enough that we’ll go out of our way to target them, but they aren’t the type of offense we’re looking to avoid, either. With Chicago also having a top-five strikeout rate, Soriano’s ceiling is as high as any arm on the slate tonight at a value price.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Trey Yesavage (R) $7,800 Toronto Blue Jays (-120) vs. Boston Red Sox
One of the wide-range-of-outcomes options on the slate is Trey Yesavage, a 2024 first-round draft choice who is making his 2026 MLB debut tonight. He excelled in the 2025 playoffs, striking out more than 35% of opposing hitters with a 3.58 ERA while facing the best teams in baseball. Tonight he faces one of the worst – at least statistically – in the Red Sox, who rank 28th in wRC+ on the year. I’m not sure how long the leash will be on Yesavage as he works back from injury, but I want some shares now in case he returns to his 2025 form.
Cam Schlittler (R) $9,500 New York Yankees (-123) at Texas Rangers
It speaks to how strong of a pitching slate we have tonight that Cam Schlittler, with his 24.1 DK PPG average, isn’t projecting among the top four pitchers in ownership. He has a sub-2.00 ERA and a strikeout rate over 30% and is facing a Rangers team with a top-five strikeout rate. Between the reduced ownership and $1,000 in salary savings, I prefer him to Ohtani for large-field GPPs.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Kansas City Royals:
We don’t have any games in Coors Field this week, but we’ve got the next best thing with the Athletics at home. They’re hosting the Royals at Sutter Health Park, which has boosted scoring by nine percent (second only to Coors at 14%) since MLB play began there last season.
The best part about it is that the field – or at least the pricing algorithm – hasn’t caught on to this fact yet. This Royals stack costs less than $4,500 per hitter, even with superstar shortstop Bobby Witt‘s $6,200 price tag factored in.
Witt is also the only Royal projecting for double-digit ownership, making them an excellent sneaky GPP stack. I’ll be all in on them tonight, though I’ll mix and match lineup configurations.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Shea Langeliers C ($5,600) Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals (Kris Bubic)
Of course, the Athletics also get to play in their home park tonight, where they’re also implied for a solid 4.8 runs. The problem with them is that they’re facing left-handed Kris Bubic ($8,400), and as a team they have some of the widest splits (in the wrong direction) against southpaws. Collectively, their wRC+ is 33 points lower than against righties.
However, PlateIQ revealed a notable exception in Langeliers:
He unfortunately plays the same position as two of Kansas City’s better hitters, so we’ll have to get creative if trying to roster him around the Royals stacks, but the payoff could be well worth it.
Julio Rodriguez OF ($4,200) Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins (Joe Ryan)
Fundamentally, I’m always looking for opportunities to roster Mariners hitters on the road. Their home ballpark cuts scoring by 8%, the most in the league, so logically their hitters are going to do better elsewhere. That’s doubly true tonight in Minnesota, where the weather is showing a big edge to bats.
They have a tough matchup against Joe Ryan ($8,200), but their top bats are reasonably priced, including Rodriguez. He joined the 30/30 club last season, giving him a rare blend of power and speed upside, and is unlikely to catch much ownership tonight with Seattle implied for just four runs.
Jahmai Jones OF ($2,500) Detroit Tigers at Atlanta Braves (Martin Perez)
The Tigers, like the A’s, also are on the wrong side of their overall splits against lefties and are taking on a southpaw tonight. Also, like the A’s, it’s pretty clear which hitters cause those splits and which ones are the exception.
Jones falls in the latter category, with a .970 OPS against lefties last season compared to just .797 against righties. He also is set to leadoff their lineup that has a solid 4.4-run implied total, with just a $2,500 price tag. That would make him a strong play even without the platoon splits in his favor.
Detroit has a few hitters with great numbers against lefties, including first baseman Spencer Torkleson ($3,300) and catcher Dillon Dingler ($4,500). They’re spread throughout the order in a way that makes stacking hard, so you could mix and match them around other teams, or take a shot on some of the hitters between them in the lineup who don’t have the same solid numbers against lefties.
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Pictured: Jose Soriano
Photo Credit: Imagn
