The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Jesus Luzardo ($9,000) Philadelphia Phillies (-147) at Tampa Bay Rays
The evening slate on Thursday doesn’t have any true standout pitchers but has four solid options separated by less than a point for the lead in median projections. This group all has mostly similar ownership projections as well, so we could more or less list them in any order here.
Luzardo brings a solid mix of upside and safety for his price tag, largely thanks to that matchup with the Rays. Tampa is a bottom-five offense against lefties on the season with just a 61 wRC+. While they have a 4.0-run implied total, logically a good chunk of that could come against the Phillies bullpen.
Equally importantly, Luzardo has a 27.6% strikeout rate this season, which should be even higher based on his 14.3% swinging strike rate. When we see a pitcher’s strikeout rate climb without their swinging strike rate improving, it could just be luck, but this seems to be a real step forward for the 27-year-old.
All things considered, while Luzardo doesn’t have the best projection in any single category today, he’s a solid mix of everything you’d want in a pitcher. He’ll be a major part of my plans in GPPs and cash games tonight.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code FL55.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Spencer Schwellenbach ($7,700) Atlanta Braves (-194) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Schwellenbach is leading the slate in ownership projections among pitchers today, but for good reason. He’s considerably cheaper than the rest of the top group while also holding the best median projection of the slate.
That obviously also leads to the best Pts/Sal projection, making him a lock for cash games. The visiting Reds are implied for just 3.5 runs tonight, which is the lowest on the board by half of a run. They’re a slightly below average offense with juiced numbers thanks to their home ballpark, which isn’t a concern tonight in Atlanta.
Schwellenbach comes into the game with a 3.92 ERA but somewhat better underlying numbers. He’s also due for some positive regression to his 21.6% strikeout rate. With the Reds striking out at a top-ten rate against righties, that gives him some sneaky upside.
Even without a jump in strikeouts, he’s cheap enough to pay off his salary just by limiting runs. The only real argument against him is ownership-based, which obviously only applies to GPPs.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($10,000) Los Angeles Dodgers (-150) at Arizona Diamondbacks
The combination of price tag and matchup seems to be scaring the field off Yamamoto tonight (at least based on our projections), creating an interesting opportunity for GPPs. He appears to be the odd man out of the top four (which also includes Chris Bassitt ($8,500) in popularity, despite being clearly the best real-life pitcher of the bunch.
Yamamoto has allowed just four earned runs all season and one in his last five starts. Bassitt and Schwellenbach have each had games where they’ve allowed more earned runs than Yamamoto has over all seven starts this season.
While I doubt he’s able to sustain a sub-1.00 ERA all year, his underlying numbers are in the low twos. On top of that, his 32% strikeout rate is fourth in the majors among qualified starters.
At a certain point, matchup and situation don’t matter due to the talent of the player. I’d say we’re there with Yamamoto, and I’m happy to get an ownership discount tonight.
If you’re craving more MLB DFS or betting tools, be sure to check out one of our most powerful tools on the site—PlateIQ.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
Fitting the Dodgers and Yamamoto is nearly impossible tonight thanks to the high cost on both sides of that equation. The actual top stack in our models included #3 hitter Will Smith C ($4,200) instead of Conforto, but by pivoting, we’re able to save nearly $1,000 and free up the catcher spot, which is where we can typically find budget options.
It also allows us to squeeze in another left-handed hitter. That could be important tonight against Brandon Pfaadt ($8,000), whose career OPS is about 100 points higher against lefties than righties.
Outside of that, LA stands out for the typical reasons. Their 5.1-run total leads the slate, they’re a top three overall offense in baseball, and they’re getting a minor park upgrade by virtue of this game being in Arizona.
I’d love to play a ton of Dodgers stacks tonight if I can afford them.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Click here to find out how SimLabs can elevate your MLB DFS game, and watch the video below.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Austin Riley 3B ($5,000) Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds (Nick Lodolo)
Outside of the Dodgers, the Braves have the best team total on the slate. They’re taking on Reds’ lefty Nick Lodolo ($6,700). Atlanta overall has been considerably worse against southpaws this season, which makes me less interested in a full stack.
However, they have a few very strong options. We can see them easily in PlateIQ:
I prefer Riley over Matt Olson at similar numbers, since Riley would replace Max Muncy from the Dodgers stack while Olson blocks Shohei Ohtani. Of course, you could go with a mini stack of the Braves’ best lefty mashers and fit Dodgers around there.
Either way, they provide a handful of solid options tonight.
Jorge Soler OF ($3,500) Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Chris Bassitt)
Given that Bassitt will be the popular pitcher I play the least of, it’s effectively mandatory to roster at least one Angels hitter. I mention that strategy option often in this space, but it’s especially important when the slate is just four games.
Since any combination of the top four arms leads to eating a ton of chalk, we want as much leverage as wee can against them. Soler isn’t an especially exciting option, but he’s fairly cheap for his spot in the lineup and his projection. Effectively any other Angels’ hitter that fits around your stack works equally well, though.
Interested in more MLB action? Check out Fanatics Sportsbook and use our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.
Pictured: Jesus Luzardo
Photo Credit: Imagn Images
