The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Chris Sale (L) $10,500 Atlanta Braves (-209) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
We’ve got a fairly busy slate by Thursday standards, with nine MLB games, including five in the late/main slate. However, even with ten options to choose from, there’s an extremely clear top pitcher on the board: Chris Sale.
The 37-year-old Sale is showing no signs of slowing down, as he’s on pace for his third straight season of 30%+ strikeout rate and sub-3.00 ERA since signing with Atlanta. His 2.01 ERA is the lowest of his career (outside of a few relief appearances as a rookie in 2010), and his strikeout rate hasn’t shown any signs of decline either, ranking third in all of baseball among qualified starters.
On top of that, he gets a Blue Jays team that has struggled heavily with left-handed pitching this season. Their wRC+ is 14 points lower against southpaws and ranks 26th in the MLB. The one possible criticism for Sale’s outlook is that Toronto’s strikeout rate against lefties is under 20%, but at this point, that’s just nitpicking.
He and the Braves have the best Vegas data by a mile, and he leads all pitchers in median and ceiling projection comfortably. He’ll come with massive ownership, but I don’t see a compelling argument to fade him. We can get unique elsewhere.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Shota Imanaga (L) $8,500 Chicago Cubs (-134) vs. Athletics
Shota Imanaga is another lefty facing a team with tough platoon splits against southpaws, though the discrepancy for the Athletics isn’t as drastic. Still, they’re about 10% worse against left-handed pitching, while also getting a massive downgrade in Park Factor by playing this game outside of Sacramento.
That’s important for Imanaga, who, unlike Sale, I would consider somewhat matchup-dependent. His ERA is an ugly 4.37 coming into the game, though his underlying metrics are in the mid-to-high threes. Interestingly, he has an identical swinging strike rate as Sale but has turned that into a 6% lower strikeout rate. In theory, strikeouts are a function of swinging strikes, so Imanaga should be racking up more Ks.
The matchup with the A’s might help in that regard, as they come into the game with a top-five strikeout rate against lefties. The downside for Imanaga is the weather. With 85-degree temperatures and winds blowing out, Weather Edge has this game boosting scoring by over 30% – and that’s over a 100+ game sample size.
That gives Imanaga a fairly wide range of outcomes. The A’s have a team total of nearly five, but he could pick up enough strikeouts to finish with a solid score despite some runs allowed. Of course, the best-case scenario is not allowing those runs at all, which would make him the top pitcher on the slate.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Jared Jones (R) $7,500 Pittsburgh Pirates (-110) at Houston Astros
After a promising rookie season, Jones missed all of 2025 and the first third of 2026 with injuries before returning last week. It didn’t go well, with Jones getting tagged for five runs across 4.1 innings. However, the former top prospect’s stuff is still there, with his average fastball velocity more than a mile per hour faster than in his rookie campaign, while he’s also generating a 19.5% swinging strike rate. Now might be the time to buy low on him after he’s hopefully knocked some of the rust off. He’s an exciting GPP option at his salary/projected ownership.
Kai-Wei Teng (R) $6,500 Houston Astros (-110) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Jones’ opponent, Kai-Wei Teng, is tied with Imanaga for the Pts/Sal lead as he transitions full time to the starting rotation. He brings a 2.57 overall ERA and moderate strikeout rate into the contest, making him a theoretically safe but unexciting option. Rostering him in GPPs is effectively a bet on one of the more expensive pitchers failing, but that feels plausible given the weather at Wrigley today.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Chicago Cubs:
Obviously, that weather that’s such a potential detriment to Imanaga is also a massive boost to hitters in this game, with the hometown Cubs coming in with the highest implied total on the slate. They have a more favorable pitching matchup against JT Ginn ($7,700), who has a 2.87 ERA but underlying numbers that are mostly over 4.00 coming into the game.
The Cubs are also a top-ten team against right-handed pitching, with every member of this stack except Hoerner having better numbers against righties. I’m personally skipping Hoerner anyway since there’s a much better second-base option – which also allows me to make this stack even cheaper if I need to.
At the end of the day, the collective price point of this stack doesn’t really factor in the extreme hitting weather, making them a solid value overall. I’m not especially concerned with which permutations of Cubs lineups I end up with, but I want as much exposure as I can.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Ketel Marte 2B ($5,200) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Justin Wrobleski)
That stronger second-base option is Ketel Marte, who is a big reason behind the Diamondbacks’ absurd platoon splits this season. Arizona is tied for dead last in wRC+ against righties but trails only the Yankees against lefties for an overall gap of 32 points.
Marte’s average is about 50 points better against southpaws this season, which is right in line with his career numbers. He’s not the only Diamondback option, though, as we can easily see in Plate IQ:
Were it not for the weather in Chicago, they’d be my favorite stack of the day. As it stands, I’ll be trying to fit the standout pieces around my Cubs exposure.
Shea Langeliers C ($5,100) Athletics at Chicago Cubs (Shota Imanaga)
The combination of Wrigley wind and big ownership on Imanaga makes rostering A’s hitters a massive potential opportunity on this smallish slate. Collectively, they’ve struggled against lefties, which makes sense given that two of their better hitters are left-handed. That makes a stack tricky, but there’s an elite one-off option.
That would be Langeliers, who comes into the game with an excellent .887 OPS overall. Against southpaws, that mark jumps to .951 with a .310 batting average. The relative lack of scoring at catcher makes him even more valuable today, and he’s a borderline must-play for me.
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Pictured: Chris Sale
Photo Credit: Imagn
