The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Dustin May ($7,800) Los Angeles Dodgers (-294) vs. Kansas City Royals
It is not a particularly strong slate for pitching. Only one pitcher is priced above $8,900, and he grades out as a poor value in our MLB Models. Every starter has at least one flaw, so it’s tough to identify a true “stud” on this slate.
When in doubt, picking on the White Sox is always a viable strategy. They’re 29th in the league in runs per game, and they’re 29th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. Their projected lineup also owns a 27.5% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months, which is the worst splits-adjusted mark on the slate.
Fading the White Sox is even better when you can do it with a team like the Dodgers. They’re one of the best teams in baseball – probably the best – so it’s one of the biggest mismatches you can possibly get.
May hasn’t had a great season for Los Angeles, pitching to a 4.68 ERA with middling strikeout numbers, and he doesn’t have the same dominant stuff he did before multiple elbow surgeries. Still, he has the clear top Vegas data on this slate. He’s a massive -294 favorite, and the White Sox’s 3.4 implied run total is the lowest of the day.
Unsurprisingly, finding a cheap pitcher with those types of marks is rare. There are just 134 previous instances in our Trends database, and those pitchers have provided an average Plus/Minus of +5.74. That’s elite value.
On most slates, that would make May a standout SP2 option. However, he’s a perfectly viable SP1 on Thursday. In addition to his Vegas data, he has the third-highest K Prediction in our MLB Models, giving him a solid ceiling in addition to his floor.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code FL55.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Cade Horton ($6,200) Chicago Cubs (-145) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Horton entered this season as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, and he earned a promotion to the big leagues pretty quickly. Unfortunately, his results at the MLB level have been a bit of a mixed bag. His strikeout numbers have been awful – he ranks in just the 11th percentile for strikeout rate – despite generating plenty of punchouts in the minors. He was routinely over 10.0 strikeouts per nine innings, and his Whiff and Chase rates in the majors have been solid. That makes him a decent progression candidate in that department moving forward.
Despite the lackluster strikeout numbers, Horton has still been pretty good at keeping runs off the scoreboard. He’s coming off a dreadful showing in his last start, but he allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven of his first eight outings.
He was priced as high as $8,700 two starts ago, creating a solid buy-low opportunity on Thursday. He draws a matchup vs. the Guardians, which he should be able to take advantage of. They’re merely 25th in wRC+ against right-handers, and they’re 26th in runs per game. Horton’s 4.0 implied run total doesn’t jump off the page, but it’s actually the fifth-best mark on this slate.
The weather at Wrigley Field can have a huge impact on how the game plays, and the conditions look favorable for Horton. The winds are expected to be blowing in from right field at 5-10 miles per hour, which makes it slightly better for the pitchers than the hitters.
Ultimately, Horton stands out as a much more talented pitcher than his current price tag suggests. He has the second-best projected Plus/Minus in THE BAT X, so he’s a viable value option.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Robbie Ray ($10,000) San Francisco Giants (-123) at Arizona Diamondbacks
Ray’s Vegas data is not what you’d expect for the most-expensive pitcher on the slate, and he’ll have to navigate a tough matchup in Arizona vs. the Diamondbacks. That said, he still has the clear top ceiling on the slate. He’s averaged better than 10 strikeouts per nine innings this season, and he leads all of Thursday’s pitchers in K Prediction. Ray has also more than held his own outside of San Francisco, with his FIP and K/9 being slightly better in road starts. The Diamondbacks’ minuscule strikeout rate vs. southpaws limits Ray’s upside, but he’s still the most talented pitcher taking the bump.
Chris Bassitt ($7,600) Toronto Blue Jays (+107) at New York Yankees
Bassitt is a high-risk, high-reward type of option for Thursday. The Yankees are capable of doing serious damage with their bats, but they’re also capable of striking out in bunches. They have the seventh-highest strikeout rate vs. right-handers for the year, and they’re sixth in that split over the past 14 days. Bassitt has struggled of late after a strong start to the year, but he leads all pitchers in projected Plus/Minus per THE BAT X.
Clarke Schmidt ($8,900) New York Yankees (-127) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Schmidt stands out as the best source of leverage at pitcher. He’s projected for roughly 10% ownership, but he’s a really good pitcher. He had a 2.85 ERA in 16 starts last year, and he’s arguably been even better this season: his xERA checks in at just 2.66. The Blue Jays are an awful matchup – they have the lowest strikeout rate in the league vs. right-handers – but he’s a solid buy-low option after his salary peaked at $10,000 two starts ago.
If you’re craving more MLB DFS or betting tools, be sure to check out one of our most powerful tools on the site—PlateIQ.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points using THE BAT X belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
You can’t ever really go wrong stacking the Dodgers. They’re first in the league in runs per game and homers per game, and they’re loaded from top to bottom with dangerous hitters. They’re currently implied for 5.9 runs on Thursday’s slate, which trails only the Astros’ 6.4 mark in Coors Field.
They have immense upside vs. Aaron Civale. He owns a 4.74 xERA for the year, and his advanced metrics are downright frightening. He allows a ton of fly balls and loud contact, and he struggles to generate swings-and-misses.
That could be a disastrous formula against the Dodgers. Even with Mookie Betts struggling a bit of late, their top six is stacked against right-handers (via Plate IQ):
Los Angeles is also more affordable than usual. Shohei Ohtani is their only batter priced above $5,000, so they’re extremely easy to fit on a slate without a stud pitcher. You can even pair the Dodgers with May for some added correlation: if their offense goes off, it’s more likely that May picks up the win bonus.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Click here to find out how SimLabs can elevate your MLB DFS game, and watch the video below.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Andrew Benintendi, OF ($2,900) Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers (Dustin May)
If you’re not using May on this slate, targeting batters against him for extra leverage makes perfect sense. May is far from unhittable, and it’s not like the White Sox are incapable of scoring runs.
Benintendi stands out as a fantastic value target, leading all hitters in the blended projection set in projected Plus/Minus. He had two hits in Wednesday’s contest vs. the Dodgers, and he’ll be on the positive side of his splits vs. May.
Mark Vientos, 3B ($3,100) New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Jose Quintana)
Vientos has not lived up to the numbers that he posted in his breakout 2024 season. His production is down basically across the board, and none of his Statcast data is particularly encouraging. He may be a flash in the pan more than a potential piece of the Mets’ core moving forward.
However, Vientos was at his best against southpaws last season, posting a 146 wRC+ in that split. He’ll get to square off with a soft-tossing lefty on Thursday in Jose Quintana, who has started to regress after a strong start to the year. He’s allowed at least four earned runs in two of his past four outings, and his xERA is still nearly a full run higher than his actual mark. It’s possible that more regression could be heading his way, and the Mets still have a dangerous lineup.
Seiya Suzuki ($5,100) Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians (Joey Cantillo)
Joey Cantillo will be making his first start of the season for the Guardians on Thursday. He had previously pitched out of the team’s bullpen, but they’ve transitioned him back into a starting role over the past month in the minors. He hasn’t gone more than 3.1 innings in any of his minor league starts, but the team is going to need some length from him with Luis L. Ortiz sidelined indefinitely.
Cantillo’s numbers out of the pen were nothing to write home about, making the Cubs one of the most interesting leverage stacks of the day. Suzuki isn’t expected to see a ton of ownership, despite the fact that he has absolutely torched left-handers so far this season. He owns a 174 wRC+ in that split, and his OPS is over 1.000.
Interested in more MLB action? Check out Fanatics Sportsbook and use our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.
Pictured: Dustin May
Photo Credit: Getty Images
