The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Chris Sale (L) $10,700 Atlanta Braves (-272) vs. San Diego Padres
There are just three games to choose from, and thus six total starting pitchers, on the Thursday afternoon slate. That means a pretty limited number of options, with one clear leader: Chris Sale. He’s dominating our projections on Thursday morning, with a healthy lead in median and ceiling projection, the best Vegas Odds on the slate in terms of both moneyline and opponent team total, and will likely also carry massive ownership.
This feels like a situation where I’d rather eat the chalk on Sale than try to get cute and fade him. On a larger slate with a greater chance of other pitcher(s) outscoring Sale, I wouldn’t be as interested in a 50%+ owned pitcher, but the gap between Sale and the field here is enough that it’s worth trying to get unique at the more volatile hitter positions.
Sale comes into the game with an elite 2.06 ERA, which is the lowest of his career as a starter, with a 29% strikeout rate. That’s worked out to just over 22 DraftKings points per game across 18 starts. We have him projected a bit short of that despite a matchup with the Padres — who rank bottom-five in wRC+ against lefties — and he still leads all pitchers by a wide margin.
It’s also helpful that there aren’t too many expensive hitters on the slate, which makes affording Sale even easier. He’s an obvious play in GPPs and cash games.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Gavin Williams (R) $8,700 Cleveland Guardians (-140) vs. Minnesota Twins
Outside of the Padres against Sale, the only team implied for less than four runs on the early slate is the Twins. They’re checking in at 3.6, which makes the $8,700 price tag on Gavin Williams a pretty obvious bargain.
With that said, Williams has a fairly wide range of outcomes today, making him more of a “GPP salary saver” than a cash game must. His ERA coming into today is 4.00, but he has an excellent 29.9% strikeout rate. The Twins are also a top-five lineup against righties, so there’s a relatively equal likelihood of a dominant start with a ton of strikeouts or Minnesota hanging some runs on Williams and chasing him early.
His median projection — which Pts/Sal is based on — splits the difference, which is enough for him to edge out Sale as the top pitcher in that category. Obviously he’s less of a confident play, but at $2,000 cheaper and much lower ownership, he’s arguably just as valuable in GPPs.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Taj Bradley (R) $8,400 Minnesota Twins (+118) at Cleveland Guardians
Bradley rounds out the trio of top pitchers on the slate, all of whom project well above the bottom half of arms this afternoon. He has a solid 3.85 ERA, a very strong 27.2% strikeout rate, and a matchup with a Guardians team that is almost precisely league-average against right-handed pitching this season. He’s an excellent pivot from Sale if you want to be extremely contrarian in large-field GPPs, or from his opponent Williams in tighter contests.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
The Braves top-five hitters come in at an average cost of just $4,800 per hitter, which is about right relative to their 5.1-run team total. That is, about right in a vacuum; not in the context of this slate.
Atlanta is the only team on the board implied for more than 4.4 runs, so the difference between them and everyone else is considerable, making them more valuable. Like their pitcher, Sale, they’re going to be heavily owned, but it’s arguably justifiable.
They’re facing Padres righty Griffin Canning ($5,000), whose minimum salary hints heavily at his form this season. He comes in with a 6.67 ERA, with underlying metrics in the mid-to-high fours. The Braves are a good-but-not-great lineup against righties, but that should be plenty in this matchup.
Plus, pairing them with Sale, while chalky, is a solid way to get a bit of extra correlation. Sale picking up the four-point win bonus is dependent on the Braves offense putting up runs, so success from one side of the group also benefits the other — though I’d pivot to some lesser-owned pieces lower in the Braves lineup in large GPPs.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Manny Machado 3B ($4,700) San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves (Chris Sale)
The likeliest outcome for Manny Machado (and the rest of the Padres) is little to no production against one of the game’s best pitchers. With that said, if he’s able to have a big game, the DFS rewards would be huge. Most of the field is rostering Sale — and thus fading Padres hitters — so you’d get a double-whammy of leverage against Sale lineups by rostering Padres bats.
Plus, Machado does his best work against left-handed pitching, as we can see in PlateIQ:
It’s worth taking a shot in some percentage of your lineups (if multi-entering) on a thinner, high-upside play like this, as we just need it to work once or twice a season to pay for all the times it doesn’t.
Ernie Clement 2B/SS ($3,800) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Ian Seymour)
Outside of the Braves, my favorite team to stack tonight is Toronto. They’re facing Ian Seymour ($7,400) of Tampa Bay, who has a 4.79 overall ERA while splitting time between starting and bullpen work. As a starter specifically, that number jumps to 5.34.
The other factor is the top of Toronto’s lineup all having reasonably strong numbers against lefties. Clement is the most extreme, with his ISO jumping more than 100 points compared to his numbers against righties. He’s also hitting leadoff for the team with the second-highest implied total on the slate, which in and of itself makes him underpriced. Plus, his multi-position eligibility helps him fit around other stacks if you want to use him as a one-off.
There’s some risk that he gets pulled early if and when Seymour is replaced by a righty, but at his price point it’s a risk I’m willing to take, as the damage could already be done by then.
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Pictured: Chris Sale
Photo Credit: Imagn
