The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Logan Gilbert ($10,300) Seattle Mariners (-289) vs. Chicago White Sox
The Mariners’ home series against the White Sox wraps up on Thursday afternoon, which means the last chance to roster one of their high-end starters against a terrible offense in the best pitcher’s park in baseball.
Seattle’s starters have produced 27 and 34 points on DraftKings so far, and Gilbert is the best pitcher on their staff. His ERA is in line with his teammates and also shows a strong home/road split. In Seattle he boasts an excellent 2.27 mark but is three runs higher on the road. Since this one is at home in a great matchup, the home splits are more relevant.
Gilbert also has a 35% strikeout rate, which would lead qualified starters had he thrown enough innings to be in consideration. He’s maintained that through 15 starts, though, so it’s not an especially small sample size.
He’s a borderline lock on Thursday’s small slate, with the only downside being is likely high ownership. Even so, I’d rather get unique elsewhere than fade the pitcher with the highest median and ceiling projections by a wide margin.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Brady Singer ($6,800) Cincinnati Reds (+144) at Pittsburgh Pirates
While Gilbert also leads the slate in Pts/Sal projection, the second-best option comes with a much cheaper price tag. That’s Singer, whose appeal is also largely matchup-based.
The Reds are in Pittsburgh, where they take on the league’s 29th-ranked offense against right-handed pitching. That’s one step behind the White Sox, with the Pirates also striking out at a higher clip. While Singer’s low-fours ERA and 22.5% strikeout rate are a far cry from Gilbert’s numbers, he’s theoretically in just as good of a matchup.
Plus, this game is in Pittsburgh, not Cincinnati, which is a further boost to both pitchers involved. While PNC Park isn’t especially strong for pitchers, it’s much better than Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, so it should still be viewed as an upgrade.
Given his obvious value, Singer will also likely be highly popular — as will all the viable pitchers on a 3-game slate.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Paul Skenes ($10,700) Pittsburgh Pirates (-174) vs. Cincinnati Reds
The last strong option on the slate is the elite fantasy ace, Paul Skenes. He’s a slightly tough click on paper since his Vegas odds and strikeout rate both lag behind Gilbert’s, while checking in at $400 more in salary.
However, that could be a very good thing on such a small slate. The field will logically flock to Giblert+Singer as the obvious pitching combination, leaving Skenes as a somewhat contrarian option by his standards.
He had a rare rough start in Coors Field his last time out but has otherwise been his usual dominant self since the All-Star break. He’s showing no signs of slowing down, with his pitch count sitting in the mid-90s fairly consistently throughout the season.
Still, the Pirates are firmly out of contention, so there’s no real reason to let their young superstar eat too many innings. I’m not sure when it will happen, but Skenes likely faces some restrictions on his workload in the near future, making him a risky but potentially valuable play today.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Seattle Mariners:
The Mariners are the only team even approaching a five-run total on Thursday’s late afternoon slate, making them a fairly obvious stack. In a vacuum, they’re overpriced for their 4.8-run implied number, but we’re all working with the same player pool tonight.
The big issue is the location of this game, as Seattle’s home stadium greatly reduces offensive output. Still, that hasn’t stopped the Mariners offense from being a top-ten unit in runs scored on the season.
The matchup with White Sox starter Shane Smith ($5,800) probably doesn’t change that either, as Smith’s ERA and underlying numbers are all in the fours. Seattle is a solid stack, partially for lack of better options, tonight.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Colson Montgomery SS ($3,800) Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners (Logan Gilbert)
If you’re trying to get unique by fading Gilbert, it makes sense to fully commit and roster at least one hitter against him. That provides excellent correlation between your hitter producing and the pitcher in other rosters losing ground.
Unfortunately, Chicago doesn’t give us many good options. I went digging in PlateIQ to see who the best choice was:
He has a pretty small sample size, but I’m taking a swing on the rookie former first-round pick. He’s got solid power with eight home runs through 27 big league games, but his high strikeout rate and low average make him a boom-or-bust option.
Xavier Edwards 2B ($4,500) Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves (Carlos Carrasco)
The Marlins are an interesting stacking choice today. While their team total lags behind the Mariners by about half a run, they’re also much cheaper, allowing more roster flexibility at pitcher or other hitter spots. They’re projecting well thanks to the matchup with Carlos Carrasco ($5,100), who hasn’t had an ERA under 5.50 since the 2022 season.
Edwards is set to bat leadoff for their lineup, and he’s a .298 hitter with good speed. His 18 steals provide some upside, and he’s likely to at least get on base at some point in this one.
This is more about the Marlins as a team, though, since their top five hitters cost under $20,000 collectively.
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Pictured: Logan Gilbert
Photo Credit: Getty Images
