The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Logan Gilbert (R) $9,000 Seattle Mariners (+123) at New York Yankees
Yesterday, the highest-projected pitcher on the board was Seattle’s Bryce Miller. I expressed some trepidation about his chances, given the tough matchup and the considerable downgrade in park factors for pitchers moving from Seattle to Yankee Stadium. Miller got tagged for five runs in six innings – and now the Mariners’ starter today is $700 cheaper than Miller was.
That’s interesting because Gilbert is arguably better suited than Miller for a game at Yankee Stadium. While their ERAs are virtually identical, Gilbert has a higher strikeout rate and a lower fly-ball rate, a combination that plays better in smaller parks where home runs are more likely. Strangely, Gilbert has also been much better on the road this season, with a 2.50 ERA away from home.
The Vegas lines still aren’t ideal for a pitcher with a $9,000 salary, with the Yankees favored and implied for a somewhat high 4.1 runs. However, there’s a chance their offensive success comes primarily against Seattle’s bullpen or that they underperform the market’s expectations.
Gilbert truthfully isn’t a great option in a vacuum, but we have another slate with no obviously strong pitching plays. As such, he leads all starters in median and ceiling projections by a decent margin while also tying for the lead in Pts/Sal projection.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Davis Martin (R) $6,700 Chicago White Sox (-132) vs. Cincinnati Reds
For the second straight day, a White Sox starter holds the top value spot in our models. Yesterday, Luis Castillo was listed here, and he delivered a dominant 10-strikeout performance against his former team, making him the best pitcher on the slate.
While Martin doesn’t have Castillo’s long-term track record, he has actually been better this season. He has the same strikeout rate as Castillo and better run-prevention numbers, all while carrying a price tag that is $800 cheaper. He also gets the same soft matchup in which Castillo excelled, taking on a Reds team that ranks 30th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching and faces a park-factor downgrade from its home games in Cincinnati.
None of this means Martin is likely to replicate Castillo’s performance, of course. Still, at his sub-$7,000 price tag – on a day with a very expensive top stack – anything even remotely similar to Castillo’s elite day is probably enough to win a tournament. He’s tied with Gilbert for the best Pts/Sal projection, and pairing them is a very strong, if highly owned, way to approach the slate.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Max Fried (L) $8,500 New York Yankees (-139) vs. Seattle Mariners
It’s interesting that Fried is the favored starter tonight but is $500 cheaper than his opponent, Gilbert, especially since Fried enters with better overall numbers. He has a 2.88 ERA this season with similar, if not better, underlying numbers and a solid 24% strikeout rate. He also has a better matchup, with the Mariners’ wRC+ against southpaws 16 points lower than it is against righties. I love Fried as a lower-owned tournament pivot from Gilbert.
Payton Tolle (L) $9,500 Boston Red Sox (-154) at Toronto Blue Jays
The Red Sox and Payton Tolle have the best Vegas data on the slate, with Boston installed as the heaviest favorite and Toronto carrying the lowest implied total. That’s mostly because Toronto is terrible against lefties, with the lowest wRC+ in baseball – four points lower than the Rockies. Tolle’s 3.20 ERA and 28.5% strikeout rate are arguably worth his price tag in a neutral matchup, and this is a massively favorable one.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Chicago Cubs:
The Cubs stack today is another example of a group of players who aren’t worth their individual price tags in a vacuum but are still the best option on a relatively thin slate. The Cubs are implied for 4.7 runs, which leads all teams on Thursday afternoon, but their hitters cost upward of $5,000 on average. That’s normally what we pay for stacks with team totals in the high fives.
Still, if they outscore every other team, they’ll help you win a tournament, which is all that matters. There’s a lot to like about them today, too. Opposing starter Cade Cavalli has a 3.57 ERA, but his xERA is more than half a run higher. The Cubs are a top-five team against righties, and the weather in Washington should boost home runs by about 11%.
The Cubs becoming a tournament-winning stack ultimately depends not only on their production but also on whether a cheap pitcher or two can post a big day. Given that some budget options appear to be better positioned than the expensive starters, that’s certainly a possibility. As a result, it makes sense to pair cheaper starters with Cubs stacks.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Miguel Vargas 3B ($4,800) Chicago White Sox vs. Cincinnati Reds (Andrew Abbott)
My personal favorite team to stack today is the White Sox, who are implied for nearly the same total as the crosstown Cubs but cost more than $6,000 less when stacking the first five hitters in their lineup. They’re quietly a top-10 team against lefties and face southpaw starter Andrew Abbott tonight.
What’s especially helpful is that their success against left-handed hitting is heavily concentrated around a few hitters, as we see in PlateIQ:
Vargas is the best, but obviously not the only, option from the White Sox, and I prefer full stacks as much as possible.
Masatake Yoshida OF ($3,000) Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays (Max Scherzer)
My other favorite team to stack tonight is the other Sox, mostly because Boston is taking on 75 42-year-old starter Max Scherzer of the Blue Jays. One of the greatest pitchers of all time, Scherzer is a shell of his former self, with his ERA jumping about two runs per year since his last solid season in 2024. He comes into Monday’s contest with a 7.25 ERA and 16.8% strikeout rate with just nine starts.
Yoshida is Boston’s leadoff hitter, which instantly makes him underpriced at $3,000 in a great matchup. Boston’s 4.5-run total is effectively the same as those of both Chicago teams. Being on the road also gives the Red Sox a guaranteed ninth inning at the plate. Boston, in general, is worth stacking, but at worst, Yoshida is an elite budget option to free up salary if you’re trying to jam in the Cubs bats.
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Pictured: Pete Crowe-Armstrong
Photo Credit: Imagn
