The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Taj Bradley ($9,000) Tampa Bay Rays (-111) vs. New York Yankees
Good pitching options have been hard to come by on the last couple of main slates, and Thursday is no different. With just five games on the slate — and only two teams with a Vegas Total below 4.0 — it’s even more of a challenge.
The best option in our projections is Bradley, who checks all the boxes from a performance standpoint. The 24-year-old has decreased his ERA in each of his three big league seasons (counting the start of this year) and has pushed his strikeout rate above 30% after sitting in the upper 20s the last two seasons.
The problem today is the matchup. He’s taking on the Yankees, the best offense in wRC+ by a wide margin to start the season. New York’s 4.6 implied runs is on the higher side, but it’s hard to say how much of that total the market expects to come off Bradley.
The good news is the Yankees strike out at a fairly high clip, so Bradley’s upside isn’t in question. He carries plenty of risk, though. On a larger slate, that would be enough for me to think of him as a GPP-only option, though given the limited choices, we might be forced into rostering him in cash games tonight.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Reese Olson ($7,300) Detroit Tigers (-149) vs. Kansas City Royals
The short version of the analysis on Olson is that he’s drastically underpriced relative to his Vegas data. The Royals have the second-lowest team total tonight, and Detroit is the second-heaviest moneyline favorite. Logically, you’d expect Olson to rank second in salary — but he’s eighth out of the 10 options.
The longer version is that Olson has been very good so far in his young career. He finished each of his first two MLB seasons with sub-4.00 ERA marks that were largely supported by his ERA indicators. While he’s gotten off to a rough start this year with a 6.00 ERA, his FIP/xFIP numbers remain under 4.00.
Plus, much of the damage against Olson came in an opening week series against the Dodgers, a much more difficult matchup than Kansas City. The Royals have a 66 wRC+ as a team, 28th in the majors so far.
Olson isn’t a big strikeout arm, but we don’t need him to be at his price tag or with so few options on the slate. He lags just behind Bradley in Pts/Sal projection, but with a much tighter range of outcomes.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Kumar Rocker ($7,500) Texas Rangers (-155) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Kumar Rocker was drafted number three overall by the Rangers in 2022 and at times has been one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. At other times, he’s dealt with injuries and inconsistency, and now profiles more as a back-end starter than the ace he was drafted as.
Still, the talent is clearly there. Rocker has an elite swing-and-miss slider and a fastball that occasionally touched 100 mph. In terms of pure arm talent, he’s probably the best pitcher on the slate. He’s yet to convert that into on-field results so far in his young career, but he’s also thrown just 23 innings in the majors since getting called up in late 2024.
Normally I’m not all that interested in betting on a player having a breakout game in a tough matchup. However, this might be as good a time as any. Rocker is cheap, and the lack of great pitching options on the slate means the opportunity cost is fairly low as well.
We’re also projecting him as one of the lower-owned pitching options, which is particularly important on smaller slates where it’s hard to be unique. I wouldn’t be shocked if he lets us down, but I’m willing to take a shot on him given the context of the slate.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Texas Rangers:
Rocker is all the more interesting when paired with the Rangers offense. Part of that is due to the inherent correlation between Rocker getting a win bonus and the offense performing well.
It’s also a solid strategic option for ownership purposes. The Rangers are drastically, and obviously, underpriced today. They lead the slate with a 5.3 run total, but their top five hitters cost less than $20,000 combined.
That means they’ll be extremely chalky, so we need to get unique at pitcher if stacking them. That gives us two reasons to lock in the Rangers onslaught, which I’ll have across many of my lineups today.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Gunnar Henderson SS ($5,400) Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians (Tanner Bibee)
There are no southpaw starters on Thursday’s slate, so my typical strategy of using PlateIQ to identify lefty-mashers isn’t applicable. Instead, I used the tool to find pitchers with extreme splits, one of whom is Tanner Bibee ($7,900):
That’s a lot of red in the “Vs. L” column for Bibee, which is good news for lefty Gunnar Henderson specifically. Or the Orioles lineup in general, which features six hitters who are either lefties or switch hitters.
Spencer Torkleson 1B ($3,800) Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals (Michael Lorenzen)
Spencer Torkleson was $4,200 yesterday in Milwaukee, hit his sixth home run of the season — and saw his price drop $400. I don’t quite understand the logic there, especially in an arguably better pitching matchup.
Former Tiger Michael Lorenzen ($8,100) looks good on paper, but his 3.36 ERA since the start of last season belies his 4.90 SIERA. Most of his underlying numbers suggest he’s been more lucky than good.
Given the discount on Torkelson — whose six home runs are tied for fourth in the majors and who has a .988 OPS — he’s a tough fade tonight. The Tigers in general could be a strong play as well if you believe regression is coming for Lorenzen.
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Pictured: Gunnar Henderson
Photo Credit: Getty Images
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