The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Max Fried (L) $9,500 New York Yankees (-275) vs. Los Angeles Angels
We’ve got a smallish six-game “main” slate on Thursday afternoon, so there are not as many options as usual to choose from. Max Fried is a fairly obvious top play as the only true ace on the slate, and he also has an extremely favorable matchup.
Fried finished last season with an ERA under three and a solid, if unspectacular, 23.6% strikeout rate. He’s right back at it this year with a 1.93 ERA through four starts (28 innings), though his K rate has slipped just under 20%. However, the fact that he’s averaging seven innings per start this early in the season means he’s trading strikeouts for efficiency, which helps to make up for some of the loss of upside.
The other factor that boosts his upside is the matchup with the Angels. While they’ve been an above-average offense in terms of run production, they remain one of the more strikeout-prone teams in baseball after leading the league in K rate last season. This year they’re “only” sixth, but they still have a rate over 25% both overall and against lefties.
That should help Fried pick up a few more punchouts today, but he could lead the slate even without many. He’s got a comfortable projections lead in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal today.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Braxton Ashcraft (R) $7,800 Pittsburgh Pirates (-155) vs. Washington Nationals
The two best values on the slate in terms of Pts/Sal both cost $8,700 or above, so I’m looking a bit further down the list for a salary-saving option at pitcher. That’s where the 26-year-old former 2nd-round pick Braxton Ashcraft comes in.
He made his big league debut last season, appearing in 26 games, with eight of those as a starter. Surprisingly, he actually had a better ERA (2.16) as a starter than when coming out of the bullpen (3.22), which is a solid sign for his future as a rotation member. This year he’s improved his numbers further, with a 2.12 ERA and 30% strikeout rate across 17 innings.
While his strikeouts aren’t really supported by his swinging-strike rate, Ashcraft still projects as a solid (mid-20% range) punchout pitcher while keeping runs off the board. He’s got a winnable matchup against the Nationals, who have a total under four runs. I like both his upside and value at his price point, as he pairs nicely with Fried in terms of overall expenditure on pitchers.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Chase Burns (R) $8,700 Cincinnati Reds (-127) vs. San Francisco Giants
Burns is projecting between Ashcraft and Fried in terms of Pts/Sal, while trailing only Fried in median and ceiling projection. He’s an interesting GPP pivot from Fried, since he saves $800 in salary and is projecting for roughly half of Fried’s ownership. He also struck out more than 35% of the hitters he faced last season and has an even higher swinging-strike rate this year, so the upside is massive today.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the New York Yankees:
On the afternoon slate, 11 of the 12 teams have an implied total of 4.8 runs or lower. The 12th team is the Yankees, who come in with a massive 6.1-run mark as they host the Angels in the Bronx.
That makes them a pretty obvious top stack, especially since they aren’t all that expensive outside of Aaron Judge. This is normally where I’d suggest fading the top option for both salary and ownership reasons, but we can get unique and save salary elsewhere, given how strong Judge’s projections are.
The other hitters in the Yankees lineup that didn’t make the top stack also have solid projections, so if you are multi-entering, I’d consider mixing and matching across your rosters, especially at outfield. Cody Bellinger ($4,500) is also listed as an OF, but with four players exclusively OF eligible, you can’t roster them all, and he has comparable projections to Stanton and Grisham.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Gary Sanchez 1B/C ($3,500) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Patric Corbin)
I’m contractually obligated to write up/play at least one hitter against Patrick Corbin ($6,300) anytime he takes the mound. Corbin had his best season since 2019 last year but still finished with a 4.40 ERA, which evidently was enough to earn him a one-year deal with Toronto. He rewarded their faith by allowing four runs in as many innings, good for an ERA of 9.00 in his 2026 debut.
Unfortunately, we don’t have a ton of great options from Milwaukee, whose lineup is broadly worse against left-handed pitching. However, using PlateIQ, I was able to find a couple of bright spots.
Sanchez is the best option in a vacuum, but especially when considering he’s eligible at catcher, where the other good choices take up an outfield spot.
Nick Yorke 3B/OF ($2,500) Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals (Foster Griffin)
I won’t pretend to know anything about Pirates’ 24-year-old Nick Yorke, but he’s in a good spot today. The Pirates’ 4.8-run implied total is tied for the second-best mark on the board, and Yorke is set to lead off their lineup. At just $2,500, that makes him a massive value, and we could use the savings if trying to stack the Yankees and play some pricier pitchers.
Yorke projects as a solid contact hitter, which gives him a good shot of getting on base and hopefully being driven in by the rest of the lineup. Either way, at his price point he doesn’t need to do much to be a great play.
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Pictured: Max Fried
Photo Credit: Imagn
