The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Gavin Williams ($8,200) Cleveland Guardians (-242) vs. Chicago White Sox
It’s a tough slate for pitching, with no starters priced at even $9,000 or higher. The upside to that is you probably don’t need a massive score from either of your pitchers to take down a tournament today, but the downside is that finding even a moderate score might be challenging.
Fortunately, the Chicago White Sox are on the slate. They’ve picked up right where they left off last season as one of the league’s worst offenses, and they lack a single hitter with a .300 wOBA or better since the start of last season. They also have three hitters in their projected lineup with a 30% or higher strikeout rate and another at 29.6%. Taken as a whole, those numbers mean the average MLB arm puts up roughly Tarik Skubal numbers against Chicago.
Gavin Williams can be fairly described as a league average pitcher. While his ERA last season was 4.86, his ERA predictors were all between half and a full run lower. He brings some solid strikeout upside as well, with a 23.8% mark in 2024.
None of that would typically justify paying his price tag, but the lack of better options and the elite matchup make him a great play today. Chicago is implied for a slate low 3.0 runs, and the Guardians are the heaviest favorite on the board. That’s enough for me to roster Williams in all contest types. He leads the slate in median and ceiling projections.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Michael Wacha ($7,000) Kansas City Royals (-119) vs. Minnesota Twins
The only pitcher on the slate who can match Williams from a Pts/Sal standpoint is Michael Wacha. That’s in large part due to how cheaply he’s priced on DraftKings specifically, with a 95% Bargain Rating. Bargain Rating is a proprietary Labs metric that measures the relative difference in salary between a player on DraftKings and FanDuel and can be used to identify where one site or the other is offering more value on a player.
Wacha has struggled through his first two starts of the season, allowing five earned runs across 9.2 innings. However, he comes into 2025 having finished the last three years with an ERA of 3.35 or lower. At 33 years old it’s unlikely he’s gotten that much worse, so some positive regression is likely coming.
It’s not the easiest matchup with the Twins, but it’s not an especially challenging one either. While Minnesota’ 4.0-run total is slightly concerning, it’s still one of the lower marks on the short slate. More importantly, we don’t have a ton of obviously better options, so crossing our fingers and hoping for the best with Wacha might be the best we can do.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Zack Littell ($8,500) Tampa Bay Rays (-130) vs. Los Angeles Angels
The only other pitcher on the slate whose opponent is implied for less than four runs is Littell, who just barely squeaks in. The Angels have a team total of 3.9 today, which is somehow the second best mark on the slate.
All in all, he has nearly identical Vegas Data to Wacha, but with a $1,300 premium on his salary. The good news is that difference should keep Littell’s ownership much lower, which is of increased importance on the smaller slate.
Littell is also arguably the best pitcher on the slate, with a 2.78 xERA since the start of last season. He has a slightly more difficult matchup than the other arms we’ve talked about, but good pitching tends to beat good hitting.
He’s not a huge strikeout pitcher so we probably need Littell to last deep into this game to pay off from a fantasy standpoint. Still, given how thin the slate is and how valuable finding a contrarian option will be, it’s worth taking a shot at his roughly 15% projected ownership.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers:
The flip side to the poor pitching slate is that we’re somewhat spoiled with viable hitting stacks. Four of the ten teams on the slate have an implied total of 4.5 or higher, with two of those at five or above.
The leader is of course the Brewers, who close out their series at Coors Field today. Milwaukee has put up 24 runs over the first two games in Colorado, and have another solid pitching matchup against Ryan Feltner ($6,000).
Feltner has been off to a strong start this season, but his career ERA is 5.19. He also has noticeably worse splits against lefties, and the Brewers have plenty of them. They’re an excellent option tonight.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Brenton Doyle OF ($5,100) Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Quinn Priester)
The contrarian way to approach the game at Coors Field is to stack the Rockies. Unfortunately, they don’t have many hitters to feel good about. However, a couple players stand out in PlateIQ:
The best among those is Doyle, but shortstop Ezequiel Tovar ($4,700) is a solid option too. Rockies mini stacks make a lot of sense as a contrarian GPP play today.
Bo Bichette SS ($4,300) Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox (Walker Buehler)
The Blue Jays are the other team I’m interested in stacking tonight. They take on the struggling Walker Buehler ($7,500), who has an 8.68 ERA through two starts after posting a 5.38 mark last year for the Dodgers.
Toronto is implied for a strong 4.5 runs as they travel to one of the best hitters parks in baseball. That makes their $4,300 leadoff hitter solidly underpriced, especially with the upside Bichette brings at his best.
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Pictured: Bo Bichette
Photo Credit: Imagn
